The Vikings selected Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. McCarthy won 27 of 28 starts over the past two seasons, but a run-heavy Michigan squad limited the raw production. He averaged only 23.4 passes per game from 2022-2023. He hit 300 yards three times over that stretch. Of course, counting stats make up a small piece of the overall evaluation. Look to the efficiency, and McCarthy thrived – particularly in 2023. He posted an elite yards per attempt (9.0) and adjusted completion rate (80.0%). Running a pro-style system under HC Jim Harbaugh, McCarthy also excelled on throws over the middle of the field. The plus athlete showed his movement skills at the NFL Combine with a 91st percentile 3-cone (6.82) and 72nd percentile shuttle (4.23). He tallied ten rushing TDs for his career. The 6’2, 215-pounder isn’t the most physically imposing QB, but his tape doesn’t give us any arm strength concerns. And he avoided missing time due to an injury. It’s also worth remembering that this Michigan offense wasn’t loaded like the ones Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. played with. Ultimately, the selection of McCarthy is a bet on traits, athleticism, and high character. He’s certainly matched with a bright offensive mind in HC Kevin O'Connell. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson supply an excellent trio of weapons. McCarthy projects as the Week 1 starter over Sam Darnold, but it's far from a lock. The Michigan product looks no better than a low-end QB2 for redraft.
The Falcons selected Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. It’s been a long road for Penix, whose college career began at Indiana. Unfortunately, injuries stole headlines in his four years as a Hoosier. In 2018, he missed four games with a right ACL tear. Four more games were lost the following season due to a right shoulder injury. Then in 2020, Penix retore his right ACL, costing him the last two games. Finally, a shoulder injury robbed him of seven games in 2021. It’s an exhaustive injury history for sure. But his comeback story certainly ended on a high note. Transferring to Washington in 2021, Penix excelled in an play-action based, downfield attack. He compiled 4,641-31-8 in 13 games while playing with a trio of NFL-caliber WRs: Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan. He recorded nine games north of 300 yards. Come 2023, Penix became the first player with 4,500+ yards in back-to-back seasons since Patrick Mahomes (2015-2016). So production/experience – along with arm strength – supply the bull case. On the flip side, it’s fair to question how Penix will perform outside of an excellent situation. That includes his blocking, as Washington’s O-line allowed only 16 sacks over the past two seasons. We also saw what happened when pressure reached Penix in the National Championship vs. Michigan. That game produced his lowest PFF passing grade (50.1) and yards per attempt (5.0) of the year. The Atlanta landing spot is a true head-scratcher. Kirk Cousins just inked a multi-year deal worth $100 million guaranteed. Perhaps he’s not ready to start come Week 1 – but there’s not a clear path to consistent playing time for Penix.
The Bears nabbed WR Rome Odunze with the ninth pick of the NFL Draft. Odunze led the Huskies in catches and receiving TDs in 2021 and then broke out as a redshirt sophomore in 2022 with the arrival of OC Ryan Grubb and QB Michael Penix. Odunze tallied 75 catches, 1,145 yards, and seven TDs that year, while ranking top-45 among 286 qualifying WRs in both Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route. He took another giant leap forward this past season, cranking out an FBS-high 1,640 yards and 13 TDs on 92 receptions. Odunze ranked eighth among 286 qualifying WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 18th in yards per route. And he did it all despite suffering a broken rib and punctured lung in his fifth game. Odunze boosted his draft stock with a better-than-expected Combine showing, earning a 9.92 Relative Athletic Score at 6’3 and 212 pounds. A polished route runner with excellent ball skills, there are shades of Davante Adams in Odunze’s game. He looks ready to make an immediate impact and should quickly emerge as a high-volume target. Odunze will have trouble piling up targets as a rookie, with WRs D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen around. But Allen's not a good bet to remain in the picture beyond 2024. If this landing spot makes Odunze slip at all in your dynasty rookie draft -- take advantage.
The Patriots drafted North Carolina QB Drake Maye in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Maye took over as North Carolina’s starter in 2022 and turned in an incredible sophomore season. He racked up 4,321 yards and 38 TDs vs. just seven INTs on a 66.2% completion rate and 8.4 yards per attempt. Maye ranked third among 93 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grades, displaying an impressive combination of aggression and decision-making. His 8.4% big-time throw rate – a PFF stat for downfield, tight-window completions – ranked second among those 93 QBs, while his 2.4% turnover-worthy play rate ranked 22nd. Maye’s wrong production took a step back last year: 3,608 yards and 24 TDs. He dealt with an ankle injury, an OC change, and the departure of go-to WR Josh Downs. But Maye still completed 63.3% of his passes at 8.5 yards per attempt and ranked seventh among 95 qualifiers in PFF passing grade. He has ideal size at 6’4, 223 pounds with an explosive release and the arm strength to make any throw on the field. Maye is also a plus athlete, throwing well on the run and rushing for 1,147 yards and 16 TDs over the past two seasons. There are shades of Justin Herbert to Maye’s game; he has that type of fantasy ceiling. To reach it, though, the Pats must upgrade the offense around him. For now, Maye’s looking at a WR corps of Demario Douglas, K.J. Osborn, Kendrick Bourne, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. There’s a chance that Jacoby Brissett is the Week 1 starter. Beyond superflex formats, Maye is off the redraft radar.
The Giants drafted WR Malik Nabers sixth overall. Nabers is an explosive athlete, confirmed by a 4.35-second 40 time and 42-inch vertical at his Pro Day. Those are 91st- and 97th-percentile marks for his position. A big play waiting to happen both after the catch and going deep, Nabers averaged 15.9 yards per catch for his college career. He flashed as a freshman at LSU and then broke out as a sophomore, leading the team with 72 catches and 1,017 yards. Then came a massive junior season: 89 catches, 1,569 yards, and 14 TDs. Nabers led the FBS in plays of 20+ yards (34) and 30+ yards (17). He also led all 286 qualifying WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and ranked third in yards per route. In many ways, his 2023 season was better than Marvin Harrison Jr.’s. Nabers isn’t as polished as Harrison, needing work on his route running and ball skills. But his pure athleticism should create plenty of 2024 fantasy value. And his long-term fantasy ceiling might be higher than Harrison’s. The Giants present opportunity for Nabers to immediately lead the team in targets. The team picking him instead of a QB in Round 1 also bodes well for the 2024 fantasy outlook of QB Daniel Jones, who has been going at the bottom of QB3 territory in early best ball drafting.
The Arizona Cardinals spent the fifth pick of the NFL Draft on WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison has looked like a top-5 pick for a while now. The son of the longtime Colt and NFL Hall of Famer, Junior arrived at Ohio State as a four-star recruit. He broke out as a true sophomore in 2022, racking up 77 catches for 1,263 yards, and 14 TDs. He ranked third among 286 qualifying WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and seventh in yards per route. Harrison’s raw production took a slight step back this past year (67-1,211-14), but he set new career highs in share of receiving yards (35.7%), share of receiving TDs (53.9%), and yards per route (3.44). That rate was a better mark than Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson ever managed at Ohio State. Harrison won the 2023 Biletnikoff Award as the top WR in college football. He’s a big-bodied 6’3, 209-pounder but moves like a much smaller man. Harrison consistently creates separation with fluid route running and a high football IQ. And when he’s not “open,” he can win with top-notch ball skills. Harrison looks ready to make an immediate impact in the NFL and ultimately boasts top-5 fantasy upside. He arrives to an offense needing a lead WR. Harrison's arrival boosts the fantasy upside of QB Kyler Murray.
The Commanders added LSU QB Jayden Daniels in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Daniels won the 2023 Heisman Award after racking up 3,812 yards and 40 TDs passing, plus 1,134 yards and 10 TDs rushing. He completed a sterling 72.2% of his passes in spite of a big 10.5-yard average target depth. Daniels was especially lethal throwing deep, completing 35 of 55 passes 20+ yards downfield for 1,347 yards, 22 TDs, and 0 INTs. He led the FBS in completion rate, yards per attempt, TDs, and Pro Football Focus passing grade on throws 20+ yards downfield. Daniels was just as impressive as a runner, averaging 10.4 yards per carry if we remove the negative yardage from sacks taken. He ripped off eight runs of 15+ yards, including an 85-yard TD vs. Florida. It’s certainly worth noting that it all came in Daniels’ fifth college season. He spent three years at Arizona State before transferring to LSU for the last two. But he consistently improved as a passer, culminating with a 92.0 PFF passing grade last year – second among 125 qualifiers. Daniels’ combination of deep-ball prowess and truly elite rushing ability give him massive fantasy upside. Think Lamar Jackson. In Washington, Daniels has a clear path to the Week 1 starting role. This supporting cast is underwhelming behind Terry McLaurin, but note that the Commanders have two Round 2 picks and three Round 3 picks. Regardless of what tomorrow brings, Daniels’ fantasy upside will remain tied to his excellent rushing ability. Consider him a likely fantasy spot-starter in 2024.
The Bears selected USC QB Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. A five-star recruit and the No. 2 QB in the 2021 recruiting class, Williams took over as Oklahoma’s starter midway through his freshman campaign. He finished that year with 9.1 yards per pass attempt and a sterling 21:4 TD-to-INT ratio. Williams then followed HC Lincoln Riley to USC and turned in a Heisman-winning 2022 season on the back of 4,537 passing yards and 42 TDs. His raw numbers took a step back this past year (losing WR Jordan Addison hurt), but Williams continued to flash a tantalizing skill set. He has the arm to make every throw, Mahomes-ian creativity and improvisation skills, and plenty of rushing ability. Williams will probably need to stay on script a bit more as a pro and clean up his ball security (33 career fumbles). But he has the potential to put up huge passing numbers while also adding fantasy value with his legs. Chicago supplies Williams with an excellent environment for year-one production – especially after the addition of Keenan Allen. The Bears have also built up a solid O-line in recent years. In 2023, they finished fifth in ESPN’s pass-block win rate. There’s top-five upside here long-term, but Williams sits just 21st in our redraft QB rankings, largely because of the position’s depth.
The Eagles and WR A.J. Brown agreed to a three-year extension worth $96 million, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. It makes Brown the league's highest-paid WR, taking that title from Amon-Ra St. Brown, who held the crown for one day. Brown is now under contract with Philadelphia through the 2029 campaign. WR DeVonta Smith is signed through 2028. The Brown extension solidifies his dynasty value, as well as QB Jalen Hurts'.
Bengals WR Tee Higgins has requested a trade, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. This story has flipped back and forth this offseason, with Schefter reporting back in March that Higgins wanted out and then Higgins saying earlier this month that he expected to remain in Cincinnati. According to Schefter, there have been no contract talks between Higgins and the Bengals "in over a year." If a trade is gonna go down, it'll likely happen on night 1 or 2 of the draft. Stay tuned.
The Ravens and WR Rashod Bateman have agreed to a contract extension that keeps him in Baltimore through the 2026 season, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Bateman had been scheduled to hit free agency next offseason. The 2021 first-round pick has underwhelmed through three NFL campaigns, missing 17 games of 51 regular-season games and failing to reach 50 yards in 25 of the other 34. HC John Harbaugh said back in February, though, that he expected Bateman to take a big step in 2024 and get the ball "a lot more." There's certainly opportunity for Bateman in Baltimore's current WR corps. But he can't be considered more than a late-round flier in fantasy drafts considering his career thus far.
The Lions and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown have agreed to a 4-year extension worth "more than" $120 million with $77 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. It makes St. Brown the NFL's highest-paid WR (at least for now). The 2021 fourth-rounder has steadily ascended to become one of the league's best WRs. He's improved his catches, receiving yards, receiving TDs, yards per target, and yards per route in each season. His 119-1,515-10 line last year made him the WR3 in PPR points. St. Brown sits fourth in our current dynasty WR rankings.
The Broncos acquired QB Zach Wilson from the Jets. Denver is sending just a sixth-round pick to New York and getting a seventh-round pick back. That measly return tells you all you need to know about Wilson's trade value. The second overall pick of the 2021 draft was a colossal bust for the Jets, completing just 57.0% of his passes at 6.3 yards per attempt with 23 TDs vs. 25 INTs. Wilson's 5.67 adjusted yards per pass attempt ranks 39th among 41 qualifying QBs over the last three seasons. He joins Jarrett Stidham in Denver to give the Broncos one of the least inspiring QB rooms in the league. Denver remains a candidate to add a QB in this week's draft. The team has commonly been linked to Oregon's Bo Nix.
ESPN's Adam Schefter writes that Chiefs WR Rashee Rice "is expected to be disciplined by the NFL, resulting in at least a multi-game suspension.” The line came in a much larger piece about NFL Draft rumors, with Schefter pegging the Chiefs as a candidate to add a WR in Round 1. But he wouldn't write that about Rice if he didn't have good intel. Rice is facing eight charges after his involvement in a street-racing crash in Dallas in late March. The league tends to wait for the legal process to play out, so it's unclear exactly when any potential Rice suspension would come. We'll continue to keep a close eye on the situation but are docking two games from Rice's 2024 projections for now. That has him falling in the 2024 WR Rankings.
Former Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins plans to sign a one-year contract with the Chargers, according to multiple reports. This comes after Dobbins visited several teams. He lands with the franchise that already signed his former teammate Gus Edwards. We'll see about the specific terms of Dobbins' deal, but Edwards landed a two-year pact worth $6.5 million total, with $3.375 million in guarantees. We'll bet that Dobbins gets significantly less coming off his September Achilles' tear (and checkered injury history). The former second-round pick will be interesting to watch this summer, especially in a backfield that could present open competition for touches. But Edwards stands as the better bet for work right now. And we'd bet on the Chargers adding a RB in the draft. For now, don't let Chargers RBs factor heavily into your draft plans -- despite their modest best ball ADP numbers.
Browns HC Kevin Stefanski refused to give a timetable for RB Nick Chubb's return as OTAs kicked off on Monday. “I don’t know that we’ll go past today and this week at least that’s the way I’m looking at it,” Stefanski said. “I can promise you he’s working very hard early in the morning. He’s here, he’s attacking his rehab. That’s the best way I can put it. When he’s ready, he’ll be ready.” Chubb is working back from a nasty multi-ligament left knee injury that required two surgeries -- one in September and one in November. Stefanski's comments don't necessarily mean that Chubb is behind schedule in his rehab, but they're a reminder that his status for the 2024 campaign remains a major question mark. Chubb is a fairly easy avoid at his current RB27 best ball ADP. He sits 35th in our current RB rankings.
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton is skipping voluntary OTAs as he angles for a new contract, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports. Sutton has just $2 million guaranteed left on his current deal. The 28-year-old is coming off a solid 2023 season, leading the Broncos with 59 catches, 772 yards, and 10 TDs. Sutton has been rumored as a trade candidate for multiple years now, but it's tough to imagine Denver trading him after shipping WR Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland earlier this offseason. We'll see where the contract situation goes, but it's far too early to worry about Sutton's holdout extending into the regular season. The bigger concern for his 2024 fantasy value is Denver's QB situation. Jarrett Stidham currently tops the depth chart.
The Cowboys signed RB Royce Freeman to a one-year deal. It's the 28-year-old's fourth different team in the last three years. Freeman was decent for the Rams last year, rushing 77 times for 319 yards (4.1 YPC) and two TDs. He ranked 21st in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, 29th in yards after contact per attempt, and 16th in PFF Elusive Rating among 69 RBs with 50+ carries. Freeman joins Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, and Malik Davis in a Cowboys backfield that still looks like a prime spot for a Day 2 rookie. We'll see exactly what the draft brings, but Freeman is not a good bet for 2024 fantasy value.
Asked this week about the Panthers' RB depth chart, new OC Brad Idzik didn't name a starter. "I think that kinda sorts itself out ... and you let them compete right up until Game 1," he said. Idzik added that "we have a lot of good runners" -- so it's possible he's been accidentally watching 2023 film of the wrong team. Carolina, of course, watched Chuba Hubbard and his 3.8 yards per carry (plus 6.0 per catch) seize the backfield lead from Miles Sanders. That came after Sanders signed one of the market's biggest RB free-agent deals last offseason. Don't be surprised if the Panthers add a RB in the draft or another source. As it stands, Hubbard has to be the favorite for work over Sanders. But the latter has enjoyed the more productive career to date. Heading into just his age-27 season, Sanders is capable of rebounding at least ahead of Hubbard. Neither should excite you for fantasy right now. Best ball ADP positions Sanders (RB59, Round 17) as the better value than Hubbard (RB39, Round 11).
WR Tee Higgins said Monday that he expects to remain with the Bengals for the 2024 campaign. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported back in March that Higgins requested a trade after getting the franchise tag, but he's evidently backed off those demands. We'll see if there's any movement during the draft later this month, but the most likely scenario has Higgins playing in Cincinnati for at least one more year. He dealt with numerous injuries last season, playing more than two-thirds of the offensive snaps in just nine games. But he averaged 66 yards and 0.6 TDs across those nine games -- after finishing as a top-14 WR in PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022. Higgins is an easy bounce-back candidate this season.
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