Marvin Harrison Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Checking the boxes for production, tape, size, and NFL bloodlines, Harrison is one of the cleanest and best WR prospects to arrive in recent memory. And he landed in a solid spot for immediate production with the Cardinals.

But only one of 12 top-10 WR picks over the previous 10 seasons finished as a top-12 WR in PPR points per game as a rookie. Only three of the 12 finished inside the top-24.

So be careful not to overrate Harrison in redraft. His ceiling climbs into the top 10, but his floor is lower than most of the other WRs going in his range.

What We Learned Last Year

• Hall-of-Famer Marvin Harrison’s son was a four-star recruit and chose Ohio State over 18 other Division I offers.
• He played sparingly as a 2021 freshman on a WR corps led by Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
• Wilson and Olave’s departures – and Smith-Njigba’s lingering hamstring injury – opened the door for a breakout season from Harrison in 2022.
  • He racked up 77 catches, 1,263 yards, and 14 TDs.
  • He accounted for 32.6% of Ohio State’s receiving yards and 33.3% of the receiving scores.
  • Harrison ranked third among 286 qualifying WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
  • His 3.18 yards per route run ranked seventh among those 286 WRs.
• Harrison’s raw production took a slight step back last year in an offense that struggled at times with new QB Kyle McCord.
  • Harrison finished with 67 catches for 1,211 yards and 14 TDs.
  • But his share of receiving yards (35.7%) and receiving TDs (53.9%) were both career highs.
  • He also set a new personal best with 3.44 yards per route run, which ranked fifth among 286 qualifiers.
  • Harrison ranked sixth among those 286 WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
  • He won the 2023 Biletnikoff Award as college football's best WR.
• Harrison checked into the Combine at 6’3 and 209 pounds.
• He did not do any athletic testing at the Combine or his Pro Day.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Cardinals took Harrison with the fourth overall pick of the draft.
• The history of rookie-year production from top-10 picks at WR is not as strong as you might think. Twelve WRs went top-10 from 2014 to 2023. Here’s where they ranked in PPR points per game as rookies.

• Harrison lands in a solid spot for 2024 production.
• He should quickly emerge as the top dog in a WR corps alongside Michael Wilson, Zay Jones, Greg Dortch, and Chris Moore.
• Harrison’s stiffest target competition will come from TE Trey McBride, who’s coming off a breakout 2023 season that saw him tally 825 yards and rank second among 33 qualifying TEs in yards per route run.
• OC Drew Petzing returns for his second season with the Cardinals.
• Last year’s Cardinals ranked:
  • 22nd in pass rate
  • 24th in pass attempts
  • 26th in pass yards
  • 24th in pass TDs
• Arizona averaged 163 passing yards and 0.9 TDs over the first nine games of the season with QB Jacoby Brissett. That increased to 210 yards and 1.3 TDs with QB Kyler Murray over the final eight games.
• Murray supported WR5, WR22, and WR9 finishes in PPR points per game from DeAndre Hopkins in 2020, 2021, and 2022