J.K. Dobbins - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Dobbins is working back from a September Achilles tear. It was his second significant injury as a pro, following a multi-ligament left knee injury back in 2021.

Dobbins is still only 25, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever recapture early-career form. He got just $50K guaranteed on his one-year deal with the Chargers.

The good news is that he landed in a wide-open backfield under a run-loving coaching staff. If Dobbins does make it all the way back from his latest injury, he’d stand a good chance to emerge as the Chargers’ lead runner.

That makes him worth considering as a flier near the end of fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Dobbins’ 2023 season ended with a torn Achilles in the third quarter of the opener. He underwent surgery on September 15.
• It was Dobbins’ second severe injury as a pro. He tore his left ACL with associated LCL, meniscus, and hamstring injuries in August of 2021. Dobbins missed that entire season – and then missed eight games in 2022 due to more trouble with that knee.
• Dobbins has played in just nine games over the last three seasons.
• He’s been super efficient when on the field.
  • Dobbins carried 134 times for 805 yards (6.0 YPC) and nine TDs as a 2020 rookie.
  • He averaged 5.7 yards per carry on 92 totes in 2022.
  • His career 5.8 yards per carry ranks first among all active RBs with 200+ career carries.
• Dobbins has not been as good in the passing game.
  • He’s averaged just 1.5 targets and 1.1 catches per game.
  • He’s caught more than two balls in just three of 24 career games.
  • His 6.6 yards per catch and 5.1 yards per target are both well below league averages for RBs.

What to Expect in 2024

• Dobbins resumed running in early March and was cleared for football activities at the end of that month. He declared himself 100% recovered in late April – about 7.5 months after surgery.
• Dobbins signed a one-year, $1.61 million deal with the Chargers. He got just $50K guaranteed, which means that he’s not a lock to make the final roster.
• Dobbins joins a new-look Chargers backfield alongside former Ravens teammate Gus Edwards and rookie Kimani Vidal.
  • Edwards tallied career highs with 198 carries and 810 rushing yards last year. But he posted career lows in most efficiency metrics and turned 29 in April.
  • Los Angeles added Vidal in Round 6 of this spring’s draft. He led Troy in rushing in all four of his seasons on campus, including 2,793 rushing yards over the last two years. Vidal also totaled 92 career catches. The 213-pounder earned an 8.88 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine.
• The Chargers have a brand new coaching staff led by HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman. Both guys have long histories of run-heavy offenses. That includes four seasons spent together in San Francisco from 2011 to 2014. Here’s where those teams ranked in rush attempts and rush rate:
  • 2011 - 3rd, 3rd
  • 2012 - 7th, 3rd
  • 2013 - 3rd, 2nd
  • 2014 - 9th, 6th
• It’s worth noting that dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick started half of the 2012 season and all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons. That certainly skewed the 49ers toward the run.
• Those 49ers RB rooms were not nearly as productive as you’d think. Here’s where those teams ranked in total RB PPR points:
  • 2011 - 20th
  • 2012 - 18th
  • 2013 - 18th
  • 2014 - 29th
• That was largely because the RBs didn’t do much in the passing game. Here’s where the 49ers’ RBs ranked in total receptions:
  • 2011 - 30th
  • 2012 - 25th
  • 2013 - 29th
  • 2014 - 31st
• The 2023 Chargers ranked:
  • 32nd in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
  • 30th in adjusted line yards
• The team spent the fifth overall pick of this year’s draft on OT Joe Alt. He ranked second among 278 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 run-blocking grades.
• L.A. also signed free-agent Bradley Bozeman, who projects to start at C. He ranked 17th among 32 qualifiers in PFF run-blocking grades last year.
• The big question with Dobbins, of course, is whether he can recapture his form after a second severe injury. A 2017 study on Achilles tears in NFL players found that:
  • 26% of players never return to play.
  • Across all positions, there was a net decrease of 23% in approximate value over the three seasons following the injury.
  • RBs saw the biggest decrease in production: a 78% decrease in approximate value in the three seasons post-injury.