2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Sneaky Good, Stupid Cheap

 

Fantasy leagues are rarely won in the early rounds. It’s the late-round picks that can truly supercharge your team.

We’ve been grinding the film and crunching the numbers. Now we’re ready to unveil the top 2025 fantasy football sleepers.

These aren’t just late-round dart throws. They’re legitimate difference-makers waiting to break out.

Without further ado, here are our seven favorite 2025 fantasy football sleepers.

 

Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets

We know what Fields is at this point: A flawed real-life QB but a valuable fantasy one.

His career 61.1% completion rate ranks 46th among 51 qualifying QBs. His 7.0 yards per attempt ranks 28th.

But he’s been a strong fantasy producer thanks to his rushing prowess.

Elite Rushing Fuels Fields’ Fantasy Value

Fields’ 50.2 rushing yards per game rank second among QBs over the last four seasons – behind only Lamar Jackson. Fields’ 6.0 yards per carry ranks fourth.

That’s helped him finish as a top-12 fantasy QB in 24 of 42 career games with a snap rate north of 90%. He’s scored as a top-5 QB 12 times.

Here’s how those rates compare with some QBs who finished top-12 in total fantasy points last year:

Murray, Goff, Nix, and Mahomes are all sitting inside the top-12 QBs in ADP. Fields is way down at 20th, making him a screaming value.

Jets Give Fields A Chance For More QB1 Production

Fields is set for another crack at a starting job this season after signing with the Jets. He got a two-year, $40 million deal with a fully guaranteed salary in 2025. That makes him a safe bet to remain under center this season unless things really go south.

New York’s offensive line is a work in progress after ranking 23rd in ESPN Pass Block Win Rate and 17th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade – although that’s less of a concern for a mobile QB like Fields. The Jets could also stand to add some pass-catching depth.

But Garrett Wilson supplies Fields with a true No. 1 WR, and RB Breece Hall is one of only four RBs to average 30+ receiving yards per game in each of the last three seasons.

Potential For Passing Improvement Under New Coaching Staff

The Jets also made an upside hire in OC Tanner Engstrand. The 42-year-old worked under Ben Johnson in Detroit, helping the Lions to top-five finishes in total yards and points in each of the last three years.

Detroit’s scheme has been praised for simplifying reads and creating easy throws for QBs. That could benefit Fields, who has struggled with decision-making and accuracy.

 

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J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings

McCarthy’s sleeper appeal starts with the situation. He’ll be piloting a Kevin O’Connell-led offense that’s consistently been a top-six passing attack.

Here’s where Minnesota has ranked in passing yards and TDs in O’Connell’s three seasons:

O’Connell Has Consistently Produced QB1s

Not surprisingly, Vikings QBs have posted nice fantasy numbers under O’Connell. Kirk Cousins finished sixth in total fantasy points in 2022 and sixth in points per game in 2023. Then Sam Darnold, who’d been left for dead, ranked seventh among QBs last year.

Only five teams have totaled more QB fantasy points than the Vikings over the last three seasons.

With O’Connell – plus Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson – back for 2025, it’s an excellent spot for McCarthy’s fantasy prospects.

McCarthy Brings Plus Accuracy and Underrated Athleticism

There’s plenty to like about the player, too, despite the August knee injury that cost McCarthy his entire rookie campaign.

He didn’t post huge raw numbers in a run-heavy Michigan offense, but McCarthy was uber efficient. He completed 64.6% of his passes at 8.4 yards per attempt as a sophomore and then set new personal bests with a 72.3% completion rate and 9.0 yards per attempt in his 2023 junior campaign. 

McCarthy was also a threat with his legs for the Wolverines, running for 742 yards and eight TDs over his final two seasons. He clocked a sub-4.6-second 40 time at his Pro Day.

The skill set got McCarthy selected 10th overall in last year’s draft. He had a strong offseason and was seemingly on track to win the Week 1 starting job before injuring his meniscus in August.

Is The Knee Injury A Concern?

McCarthy had surgery on his right knee last August and went under the knife again in November to address swelling. His recovery timeline remained unchanged, though, and McCarthy was back on the field by January.

The Vikings let Darnold walk in free agency and said ‘no thanks’ to an interested Aaron Rodgers in March, so they don’t seem concerned about McCarthy’s health or readiness to lead this offense.

 

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Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Bigsby was Jacksonville’s best runner last year, beating Travis Etienne in virtually all meaningful metrics.

Bigsby ranked 13th among 47 qualifying RBs league-wide in yards per carry, ninth in rush yards over expected per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt.

He deserves more work in 2025 – and some significant offseason changes in Jacksonville increase his chances of getting just that.

New Coaching Staff Adds Upside

The Jaguars wiped the slate clean this offseason, hiring new GM James Gladstone and new HC Liam Coen. That should erase any draft-capital edge former first-rounder Etienne had over Bigsby and make this backfield a true meritocracy.

Coen also arrives after helping the Buccaneers to top-10 finishes in rushing attempts, yards, and TDs last year. Tampa Bay produced a pair of top-20 PPR RBs in Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. Only the Lions totaled more RB PPR points than the Bucs.

Expect this Jaguars running game to take a leap forward under Coen in 2025.

Can He Overcome Minimal Receiving Production?

Bigsby isn’t a good bet for a big role in the passing game. He’s totaled just eight receptions through two NFL seasons, while Etienne has 35+ grabs in each of the last three years.

That dings Bigsby’s upside a bit, particularly in PPR leagues. But he could certainly capture a role similar to 2024 Brian Robinson, who averaged 13.4 carries and 1.4 catches per game, leading to a RB30 finish in PPR points per game.

That’d be a nice return on a guy with a Round 11 ADP.

 

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Jordan Mason, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Mason was excellent as San Francisco’s lead back during the first half of last season. Over the first seven weeks, he averaged:

• 18.3 carries
• 95.3 rushing yards
• 0.4 rushing TDs
• 5.2 yards per carry

Only nine RBs scored more PPR points over that span.

Mason Flashes High-End Skills

Mason benefitted from running in the always-efficient Kyle Shanahan offense. But he did plenty of damage on his own. Among 47 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Mason ranked:

• 10th in yards after contact per attempt
• 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 3rd in rush yards over expected per attempt

Vikings Make A Move For Mason

Mason’s play didn’t go unnoticed by the Vikings. They swung a trade for him in March and then promptly gave him a two-year, $10.5 million deal with $7.2 million guaranteed.

That contract falls well short of RB Aaron Jones’ two-year, $20 million deal. The veteran will surely open the season as Minnesota’s lead back.

But Mason should mix in plenty right out of the gate. Jones turned 30 in December and, prior to last year, had gone three straight seasons averaging between 11 and 13 carries per game. It’d make sense for the Vikings to get Jones back in that range, with Mason picking up the leftovers. That could be enough to make him a viable flex play.

Multiple Paths To Fantasy Upside

But Mason’s real upside comes in the case of Jones either getting hurt or hitting the wall. 

Last year was just the third time in eight tries that Jones played a full season. He’s missed an average of 2.0 games per year with injury.

And, despite tallying over 1,500 total yards last year, Jones registered a career-worst 75.8 Pro Football Focus rushing grade. His 3.0 yards after contact per attempt was his lowest mark since 2018. In fact, Mason beat Jones last year in PFF grade, yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt, and rush yards over expected per attempt.

Our historical aging curves say we should expect just 65% of peak production from a 30-year-old RB. That’s down from 70% at age-29.

It’s certainly possible that Mason emerges as Minnesota’s best RB at some point this season. That’d give him the potential to be an exciting weekly fantasy starter.

 

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Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills

Coleman didn’t do enough to help fantasy teams as a rookie last year. He finished 67th among WRs in PPR points per game and turned in just two top-24 scoring weeks.

But Coleman did three things in his debut season that make him an intriguing 2025 fantasy football sleeper.

He Worked Downfield

Coleman averaged a huge 19.2 yards per catch last year. His 15.5-yard average target depth was fifth-highest among 84 qualifying WRs. 34% of his targets came 20+ yards downfield – the seventh-highest rate among those 84 WRs.

Coleman caught only six of his 19 deep targets, so there’s work to do on his game and his connection with QB Josh Allen. But similar usage this coming season would boost his fantasy ceiling.

He Added Value After The Catch

Coleman averaged 7.7 yards after the catch per reception as a rookie. That ranked fifth among 84 qualifying WRs – and is even more impressive when you factor in his big average target depth. (It gets harder to gain yards after the catch the further you work downfield.)

In fact, Coleman led all players in NFL Next Gen Stats’ yards after catch per reception over expected, which factors in target depth, as well the location of blockers and defensive coverage.

He Was A Red-Zone Weapon

Coleman’s four total TDs last year don’t jump of the page. But they came on just 29 total catches, giving him a strong 13.8% TD rate. 

More exciting as we look ahead to 2025 is that Coleman registered 5.2 expected receiving TDs. His 25 red-zone targets and eight end-zone targets led the Bills and ranked top-40 among all WRs league-wide. (Despite Coleman missing four games.)

With a 6’3, 213-pound frame and ball skills like that, expect Coleman to remain a preferred red-zone target for the Bills.

Coleman’s Path To Weekly Fantasy Starter

A downfield WR with after-catch chops and a big red-zone role should pique your interest. On top of that, Coleman should still be ascending as he enters year two. And he could find more targets available in 2025.

The Bills let WR Amari Cooper walk in free agency, replacing him with former Chargers WR Josh Palmer. While Cooper underwhelmed in Buffalo, he’s historically been a strong target earner, with eight seasons of 100+ targets. Palmer, meanwhile, has hit triple digits in just one of four tries and averaged just 4.3 targets per game last year. 

It’s certainly possible that Palmer proves to be a downgrade from Cooper, opening up more target opportunity for Coleman in this Josh Allen-led offense that has ranked top six in points in five straight seasons.

Considering his upside in terms of yards per catch and TD rate, Coleman doesn’t necessarily need huge volume to deliver for fantasy teams.

        

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Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears

Kmet flamed out in a frustrating 2024 season for the Bears passing game. He finished with a 47-474-4 line, landing 22nd among TEs in PPR points per game.

That Halted A Stready Rise Over The Previous Three Seasons.

Here’s how Kmet fared in PPR points per game and yards per route from 2021-2023 (vs. 2024):

Kmet ranked 15th among TEs in PPR points per game in 2022 and climbed to eighth in 2023. He made a similar rise in yards per route:

• 2021: 22nd among 35th qualifying TEs
• 2022: 20th out of 32
• 2023: 8th out of 33

What Went Wrong Last Year?

Kmet’s efficiency remained strong. His 85.5% catch rate led all 36 qualifying TEs, and his 119.2 passer rating when targeted was tops on the Bears. 

But his volume plummeted. Kmet’s 3.2 targets per game and 9.7% target share last year were his lowest marks since his 2020 rookie campaign. He had topped a 17% target share in each of the previous three seasons.

So you can bet Kmet was happy to see the Bears shake things up this offseason.

Ben Johnson Brings TE-Friendly Offense

The big move was the hiring of HC Ben Johnson, the hottest name on the coaching market after leading the Lions to three straight top-five finishes in points and total yards. 

Johnson’s Detroit tenure included TE Sam LaPorta’s big 2023 rookie season – plus TE T.J. Hockenson ranking fourth among TEs in PPR points per game before being traded to Minnesota midway through the 2022 campaign.

GM Ryan Poles confirmed in February that he expects his TEs to be more involved this season.

“Part of Ben Johnson’s scheme is putting his TEs in a position to be successful,” Poles said. “I think that should be able to take off pretty good.”

Lots Of Targets Up For Grabs

Kmet will also benefit from the offseason departure of WR Keenan Allen, who ranked second on last year’s Bears with 121 targets in 15 games (8.1 per game). With a 9.0-yard average target depth, Allen regularly worked in the same areas of the field as Kmet (7.1-yard average target depth).

As of late-March, Chicago has only added Olamide Zaccheaus and Devin Duvernay to the WR corps. If he can dodge a significant addition in the draft, Kmet should enter 2025 as the No. 3 option in the passing game.

 

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Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys

Ferguson might be the least exciting player on this list. He’s not exactly a dynamic TE, with 4.8 speed and a career 9.6 yards per catch.

Ferguson Wins With Volume

Ferguson is just a couple of years removed from a 102-target season. He parlayed that action into a 71-761-5 line, finishing ninth among TEs in PPR points.

Ferguson was on a 104-target pace last year. But injuries to he and his QB curtailed his fantasy production.

Injuries Derail Ferguson’s 2024

Ferguson was knocked out of Week 1 with a left knee injury and missed Week 2. Then he sustained a concussion early in Week 11 that cost him the next two games.

In between those two injuries, the Cowboys lost QB Dak Prescott to a season-ending hamstrsing injury in Week 9.

Ferguson Was on TE1 Pace With Prescott

So Ferguson played just seven games with Prescott last year. He was busy and productive over that stretch, averaging:

• 7.4 targets
• 5.4 catches
• 48 yards

That’s a full-season pace of 126 targets, 92 catches, and 811 yards. All three marks would have ranked top six among TEs.

Situation Presents Upside In 2025

Prescott will be healthy for the start of the 2025 campaign, and the Cowboys made no significant additions to the WR corps in free agency. We’ll see what the draft brings, but Ferguson is in line to play a sizable role in this passing game.

He also figures to benefit from what should be a pass-leaning offense. The Cowboys finished top eight in pass attempts in both of the last two seasons under then-OC, now-HC Brian Schottenheimer. Dallas chucked it on a whopping 66.7% of their plays in Prescott’s eight games this past year. That pass rate would have easily led the league.

Add it all up and Ferguson has a clear path to 100+ targets, which would make him a strong bet for top-10 fantasy production. 26 TEs have hit 100+ targets over the last five seasons … all but one finished top nine in PPR points.

Ferguson’s current ADP is sitting 15th among TEs in Round 13.

 

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Not All Sleepers Are Created Equal — Here’s How to Find Yours

Grabbing the right sleepers can be the difference between a championship run and another middle-of-the-pack finish. The players we just covered are a great starting point.

But not all sleepers are created equal. A player who’s a steal in one league might be a reach in another, depending on your scoring system, lineup requirements, and league trends.

You could go the old-school route — endless spreadsheets, hours of research, and a headache before Week 1 even starts. Or you could let our ADP Market Index tool do the work for you, identifying undervalued players tailored to your specific league settings.

Here’s what you get with the ADP Market Index tool:

Customized Analysis: Get player rankings and ADP insights that mirror your league's unique format.  Whether you're in a PPR league, require a trio of starting WRs, or navigating the complexities of Superflex, both the rankings and ADP correlate to your league.

Effortless Insight: Instantly compare each player's value against the market average (ADP). Again, this is all calibrated to your fantasy platform and scoring guidelines. That means you’ll see the gaps between a player’s actual value and his ADP.

Spot the Sleepers: Next, look for green index numbers signaling undervalued players. Discovering a player underrated by 20, 30, or even 40+ spots means you've found a sleeper who could bring you a championship run. 

Dive into the ADP Market Index

I know you're bombarded with fantasy content asking for your attention. But if you’re truly trying to gain an advantage by targeting sleepers in your upcoming draft – you really should spend a few more minutes checking out our ADP Market Index tool.  It could be the difference between a championship or another mediocre season! 

  

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