Jayden Daniels - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Daniels was a human highlight reel in 2023.

Sure, you can point to a late breakout, or a stacked LSU offense as reasons to downplay his '23 success. But ultimately, we’re looking at a highly experienced prospect with extraordinary athleticism.

It’s the rushing profile that should have you excited for 2024. Think rookie-year Kyler Murray, who finished as the QB7 in OC Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. (Kingsbury joined the Commanders this offseason.)

The rookie is an attractive value in summer drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Daniels spent five years in college -- three at Arizona State and two at LSU.
• He didn't post a true breakout until last fall…
  • That’s when Daniels smoked SEC defenses, totaling 50 TDs (10 rushing).
  • Impressive efficiency followed: a 72.2% completion rate and 11.7 yards per attempt.
  • He delivered the second-best EPA per play in ESPN QBR history.
  • The now 23-year-old played alongside a star-studded cast, including WRs Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.
• Daniels earned the Heisman Trophy.
• He’s the only FBS player in college football history with 12,000 passing yards and 3,000+ rushing yards.
• Our film study showed an excellent deep ball thrower with the ability to navigate and escape from pockets. Think Lamar Jackson.
• Daniels is on the slim side, though, and he took some crushing hits in college.
  • We also saw him miss some relatively easy throws on film.

What to Expect in 2024

• New GM Adam Peters selected Daniels with the second overall pick, behind Caleb Williams and ahead of Drake Maye.
• Marcus Mariota is the backup – there’s no controversy this summer.
• The Commanders fired OC Eric Bieniemy after one year, replacing him with former Cardinals HC (and USC assistant) Kliff Kingsbury.
  • Kingsbury “likes to use run-pass options and he wants to attack down the field,” writes beat writer John Keim. “Daniels said he liked what Kingsbury had to say during their meetings, but he has also watched his offense over the years.”
  • Kingsbury’s results as a HC/play-caller in Arizona weren’t spectacular.
  • His units ranked 21st, 6th, 8th, and 22nd in yards and 16th, 13th, 11th, and 21st in points.
  • In his tenure, the Cards finished 18th, 15th, 18th, and 4th in pass attempts and 24th, 17th, 10th, and 18th in passing yards.
• This O-line profiles as a bit shaky – particularly at LT, where 33-year-old Cornelius Lucas appears set to start.
• The weapons supply some promise.
  • Terry McLaurin returns as a low-end WR1.
  • WR Curtis Samuel departed in free agency, but the team is hoping for a third-year resurgence from WR Jahan Dotson, whose ‘23 was impacted by hamstring trouble.
  • WR Luke McCaffrey arrived to supply a slot target in Round 3.
  • The TE room was remade with veteran Zach Ertz and rookie Ben Sinnott.
  • RB Austin Ekeler, if healthy, should supply a nice boost out of the backfield.
• As of this writing, our projections have Daniels slotting fourth in QB rush yards; fifth in QB rush TDs. Huge drivers for his fantasy value.