Amon-Ra St. Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

St. Brown has clearly established himself as one of the NFL’s best WRs and one of fantasy football’s safest bets. He makes sense anywhere among the top 5 WRs in PPR formats.

What We Learned Last Year

• St. Brown has solidified himself among the league’s best wideouts.
• He finished last season third among WRs in Pro Football Focus passing grade, trailing only Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk.
  • That grade climbed slightly vs. 2022, when he also ranked third (behind Hill and Davante Adams).
• St. Brown also improved on an already strong yards per route. His 2.40 in 2022 tied for seventh among 97 WRs who drew 40+ targets. Last year’s 2.59 ranked him seventh by himself.
• St. Brown notched the deepest average target depth among his three seasons, at 8.0 – up from 6.7 and 7.0 the previous two years.
• Despite the deeper average route, St. Brown also increased his yards after catch per reception for the second straight year.
  • He has gone from 4.8 to 5.1 and then 5.7 in that category.
• And according to NFL Next Gen Stats, last year marked St. Brown’s highest rate of yards after catch over expected: 1.0 per reception, vs. 0.6 and 0.7 the previous two years.
• St. Brown also garnered his highest target share last season, ranking fifth among WRs. He checked in 11th at the position the year before.
• Fantasy wise, he ranked third among WRs in total points across formats – despite missing a game.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Lions gave St. Brown a four-year, $120 million extension this offseason, including $77 million guaranteed. That sure seems to say they expect things to keep going the same way.
• St. Brown’s high target volume – third in targets per game among WRs – came despite the team ranking just 25th in situation-neutral pass rate, according to RBSDM.com
• St. Brown also didn’t go crazy-high with his efficiency last season. His catch rate matched 2022 and trailed his 2021 rate. His receiving success rate dipped slightly vs. 2022.
• The biggest potential challenge for St. Brown’s 2024 numbers might be the potential rise of WR Jameson Williams. The third-year player has garnered praise from HC Dan Campbell for his offseason work and looks poised to claim the No. 2 WR role.
  • But WR Josh Reynolds’ departure vacated 10.6% of last year’s targets. No other Lions WR hit double digits.
  • TE Sam LaPorta ranked seventh among TEs in target share as a rookie. And RB Jahmyr Gibbs ranked eighth among all RBs in targets, despite missing two games.
• All that is to say: There were target challenges last year. One of the league’s best offenses looks well set up to support one of the league’s top wideouts.
• St. Brown’s most attractive trait vs. others at his position is probably his consistency.
  • He finished outside the top 19 PPR wideouts just three times across 16 games last season.
  • St. Brown finished 13th or higher 11 times.
  • No other WR had more than 10, and just four others had nine such weeks.