Amon-Ra St. Brown Injury History & Updates

Bottom Line

St. Brown has clearly established himself as one of the NFL’s best WRs and one of fantasy football’s safest bets. He makes sense anywhere among the top 5 WRs in PPR formats.

What We Learned Last Year

• St. Brown has solidified himself among the league’s best wideouts.
• He finished last season third among WRs in Pro Football Focus passing grade, trailing only Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk.
  • That grade climbed slightly vs. 2022, when he also ranked third (behind Hill and Davante Adams).
• St. Brown also improved on an already strong yards per route. His 2.40 in 2022 tied for seventh among 97 WRs who drew 40+ targets. Last year’s 2.59 ranked him seventh by himself.
• St. Brown notched the deepest average target depth among his three seasons, at 8.0 – up from 6.7 and 7.0 the previous two years.
• Despite the deeper average route, St. Brown also increased his yards after catch per reception for the second straight year.
  • He has gone from 4.8 to 5.1 and then 5.7 in that category.
• And according to NFL Next Gen Stats, last year marked St. Brown’s highest rate of yards after catch over expected: 1.0 per reception, vs. 0.6 and 0.7 the previous two years.
• St. Brown also garnered his highest target share last season, ranking fifth among WRs. He checked in 11th at the position the year before.
• Fantasy wise, he ranked third among WRs in total points across formats – despite missing a game.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Lions gave St. Brown a four-year, $120 million extension this offseason, including $77 million guaranteed. That sure seems to say they expect things to keep going the same way.
• St. Brown’s high target volume – third in targets per game among WRs – came despite the team ranking just 25th in situation-neutral pass rate, according to RBSDM.com
• St. Brown also didn’t go crazy-high with his efficiency last season. His catch rate matched 2022 and trailed his 2021 rate. His receiving success rate dipped slightly vs. 2022.
• The biggest potential challenge for St. Brown’s 2024 numbers might be the potential rise of WR Jameson Williams. The third-year player has garnered praise from HC Dan Campbell for his offseason work and looks poised to claim the No. 2 WR role.
  • But WR Josh Reynolds’ departure vacated 10.6% of last year’s targets. No other Lions WR hit double digits.
  • TE Sam LaPorta ranked seventh among TEs in target share as a rookie. And RB Jahmyr Gibbs ranked eighth among all RBs in targets, despite missing two games.
• All that is to say: There were target challenges last year. One of the league’s best offenses looks well set up to support one of the league’s top wideouts.
• St. Brown’s most attractive trait vs. others at his position is probably his consistency.
  • He finished outside the top 19 PPR wideouts just three times across 16 games last season.
  • St. Brown finished 13th or higher 11 times.
  • No other WR had more than 10, and just four others had nine such weeks.