The Bills selected Florida State WR Keon Coleman in Round 2 of the NFL Draft. Coleman’s most impressive college season came at Michigan State back in 2022. He led that squad as a sophomore with 58 catches, 798 yards, and seven TDs – notably ahead of then-senior Jayden Reed. Coleman transferred to Florida State this past year and turned in a mixed season. The good: He led the Seminoles in receiving yards and tied for 11th in the country with 11 receiving TDs. The bad: Coleman trailed teammate Johnny Wilson in most key metrics, including yards per game, targets per route, yards per route, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. He ranked 149th in PFF receiving grade among 286 qualifying WRs and 175th in yards per route. Coleman’s tape is also a mixed bag. The 6’3, 213-pounder boasts one of the most impressive highlight packages in this year’s WR class, combining a big vertical with impressive body control and strong hands to make some nasty grabs in traffic. But he’s inconsistent in contested situations, converting just 20 of 46 (43%) such targets over the last two seasons, according to Pro Football Focus. That includes just 10 of 30 last year. Coleman also struggles creating separation, landing in the 47th percentile among all FBS WRs in separation rate vs. single coverage, per PFF. His combination of size and ball skills gives Coleman the potential to be a downfield and red-zone weapon as a pro. Landing in Buffalo, he joins a squad that lost 241 targets with the departures of Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. Couple opportunity with the presence of Josh Allen, and Coleman has the potential to enter fantasy lineups in Year 1.
49ers GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan talked about WR Ricky Pearsall as a guy they believe can contribute right away. “(Pearsall) just plays the position real well, whether he was outside, inside, all three positions,” Shanahan said in his post-draft press conference. “He can separate down the field, he can separate underneath, extremely good hands. … There’s nothing he can’t do." It sure sounds like the Pearsall pick was made with the expectation that WR Brandon Aiyuk or WR Deebo Samuel will be traded. Insider Michael Silver tweeted late Thursday night that he's heard Samuel is more likely to be traded at this point. Shipping away either guy would be excellent news for Pearsall's dynasty value -- and turn him into an interesting 2024 redraft pick.
The Panthers traded up one spot to grab South Carolina WR Xavier Legette with the final pick of Round 1. Legette is one of the toughest evaluations in this year’s WR class. He did next to nothing over his first four college seasons, totaling just 42 catches. That stretch included a 2020 hamstring injury and a 2021 motorcycle accident – all after Legette spent his senior year of high school playing QB. Then he came out of nowhere for a huge 2023 campaign. Legette’s 1,255 receiving yards ranked eighth in the country. He accounted for 37.6% of South Carolina’s receiving yards and 33.3% of the receiving TDs. And he ranked top-16 among 286 qualifying WRs in both yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. Then Legette smashed the Combine, recording a 4.39-second 40 time and 40-inch vertical at 6’1, 221 pounds to earn a 9.90 Relative Athletic Score. That elite combination of size and speed pops off the tape. Legette can dominate on deep balls and after the catch. He also has a big catch radius and reliable hands. Legette is relatively raw in the route-running department, though, and isn’t the most agile player. It’s fair to wonder how much more room he has to grow considering he turned 23 in January. Legette lands in an offense with decent opportunity, but we wouldn't bet on big target share in 2024. Carolina acquired WR Diontae Johnson to boost a receiving corps that Adam Thielen led in 2023. Check our rookie rankings to see where Xavier Legette settles.
The 49ers selected Florida WR Ricky Pearsall in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Pearsall spent five years in college and will turn 24 before his second NFL game. But he’s a polished prospect, winning with precise route running, sticky hands, and after-catch elusiveness. Pearsall emerged as Arizona State’s No. 1 WR in his third year on campus in 2021. He then transferred to Florida, where he led the Gators with 661 receiving yards and five TDs in 2022. This past year brought new career highs with 65 catches and 965 yards – a big 31.4% of Florida’s total receiving yards. Pearsall also ran it 21 times for 253 yards (12.0 YPC) and five TDs across his five college seasons. He surprised at the Combine with a 4.41-second 40 time and 42-inch vertical at 6’1 and 189 pounds. Pearsall’s advanced age and middling production profile are legit concerns. But his polish and ability to contribute in multiple ways gives him a chance to make a fantasy impact early in his career. We'll see whether the 49ers retain Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel. Long term, the Florida product projects as a real-life WR2 and a potential fantasy WR3.
The Cardinals spent the 27th pick on Missouri DL Darius Robinson. Through four years, Robinson totaled just 4.5 sacks and 7.0 tackles for loss. He broke out with 8.5 sacks and 14.0 tackles for loss in his fifth season. Robinson should get a shot at early playing time, but beware of his late college breakout.
The Chiefs selected Texas WR Xavier Worthy in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Worthy set the Combine record with a 4.21-second 40 time and plays to that speed on the field. He averaged 14.0 yards per reception for his college career, making big plays both downfield and after the catch (7.3 career YAC/reception). He’s also an impressive route runner. Worthy broke out as an 18-year-old true freshman, easily leading the Longhorns with 62 catches, 981 yards, and 12 TDs. A QB change and a fractured finger led to a dip in raw production in 2022, although Worthy still led Texas in all major receiving categories. He made it three straight seasons as Texas’ top receiver last year, despite the arrival of WR Adonai Mitchell. Not only did Worthy easily beat Mitchell in catches (75 to 55) and yards (1,014 to 845), but he also dusted him in advanced metrics like targets per route (0.25 to 0.17) and yards per route (2.14 to 1.72). The glaring concern with Worthy: He’s just 165 pounds. Only two WRs at 170 pounds or lighter – DeVonta Smith and Tank Dell – have reached 10 PPR points per game since 2000. Worthy, though, is just the third sub-170-pound WR since 2000 to be a top-50 pick in the draft (joining Smith and Dexter McCluster). His chances of success increase in Kansas City. The Chiefs are simply thin at WR, especially with Rashee Rice facing a multi-game suspension. Note that free-agent addition Marquise Brown signed a one-year deal. Worthy ultimately projects in WR5 range for early best ball drafters.
The Lions traded up to the 24th spot in Round 1 of the NFL Draft to select CB Terrion Arnold. He spent just three years at Alabama, the past two as a starter. He snared 5 INTs as a junior. Arnold plays the wrong position to make a significant impact in most IDP dynasty leagues, though.
The Jaguars drafted LSU WR Brian Thomas in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. After two relatively quiet seasons to open his college career, Thomas busted out as a junior this past year. He racked up 1,177 yards and an FBS-high 17 TDs on 68 receptions. The big-play machine averaged 17.3 yards per catch on a 13.9-yard average target depth. He hauled in 15 of 22 targets 20+ yards downfield for 670 yards and 12 TDs. The catches, yards, and TDs were all top-3 marks in the nation, and Thomas was one of 24 WRs to score a 99.9 PFF receiving grade on deep targets. With a 4.33-second 40 time, strong ball-tracking ability, and high-end ball skills, Thomas has all the tools to be a dominant deep-ball weapon in the NFL. He wasn’t nearly as productive on short and intermediate routes at LSU and needs to improve as a route runner to emerge as a No. 1 WR in the NFL. But his combination of size (6’3, 209 lbs.) and athleticism (9.84 RAS) gives him the potential to do so. Thomas should at least be a valuable best-ball asset as a rookie. But with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and free-agent addition Gabe Davis rostered, the weekly floor figures to be low here. We’ll also see if Trevor Lawrence can improve after plateauing in 2023.
The Eagles selected CB Quinyon Mitchell in the first round of the NFL Draft. Mitchell posted limited tackle totals across four years at Toledo (three in the starting lineup). He defensed 37 passes over his final two seasons, though. And NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah said Mitchell was “the best corner at the Senior Bowl, and it wasn’t close.” Corners carry little value in most fantasy formats, and you shouldn’t get too excited about Mitchell in your IDP rookie draft. Landing in Philly at least gives Mitchell a shot to make an impact soon. The Eagles return both starting outside corners from last year but played poorly in the secondary and are getting old at both spots.
The Dolphins spent the 21st pick of the NFL Draft on Edge Chop Robinson. After a year at Maryland, Robinson closed out his college career with tow years at Penn State. He totaled 60 tackles, 11.5 sacks, and 20.0 tackles for loss across his three seasons. Robinson delivered a 97th-percentile speed score at 254 pounds at the Scouting Combine. We're a little concerned that Robinson won't claim high enough snap shares to produce consistent fantasy stats.
The Rams selected Edge Jared Verse with the 19th pick in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Verse enjoyed a productive two seasons at Florida State after transferring from Albany. He tallied 9 sacks each year, and 29.5 total tackles for loss across those two years. Verse then delivered strong straightline speed (97th percentile speed score) at the Scouting Combine. We're a little concerned about his slow 3-cone time (7.31 seconds, 32nd percentile). Verse will make for a solid pick in IDP rookie drafts, though.
The Vikings grabbed Edge Dallas Turner with the 17th pick of the first round. Turner brings plenty of excitement as a 21-year-old early declare who delivered a 99th-percentile speed score at 6’3, 247 pounds. He also delivered 0.86 tackles for loss per game and 0.6 sacks per game for his career at Alabama. Turner lands in a Minnesota defense that just lost Edge Danielle Hunter to the Texans in free agency. That plus Turner's Round 1 draft capital -- increased by the two trades that got the Vikes in position to draft him -- makes him likely to start early in his rookie season. Expect Turner to rank high in the rookie rankings for your IDP draft.
Texas DT Byron Murphy landed with the Seahawks at the 16th spot in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Murphy presents uncommon explosiveness and size for the position. He’s small, at 6’0.5 and 297 pounds. But Murphy also delivered 82nd-percentile or better results in the 10-yard split, 40-yard dash, vertical, and broad jump. He posted modest numbers in college, with highs of 8.5 tackles for loss and 5 sacks in his third and final college season. But the athleticism gives him upside beyond that in the pros.
The Colts made Edge Laiatu Latu the first defensive pick of the NFL Draft with the 15th selection of Round 1. Latu had to medically retire from football in the middle of his college career because of a neck injury but returned to close out a highly productive run. He racked up 33.5 tackles for loss and 23.5 sacks across two seasons at UCLA. Latu then delivered a 95th-percentile speed score at 6’5, 259 pounds at the Scouting Combine. He could compete for starter-level snaps as a rookie with the Colts but won’t be a lock for such a role. Indy sports Kwity Paye, Samson Ebukam, and Dayo Odeyingbo at the position.
The Raiders added Georgia TE Brock Bowers in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Bowers arrives after an uber-productive college career. He led Georgia in catches, receiving yards, and receiving TDs across all three seasons on campus. Bowers tallied a 56-882-13 line as a true freshman, ranking third among 45 qualifying TEs in both Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route. He improved his yards per game each of the next two seasons (62.8 and 71.4) and led all 52 qualifying TEs in yards per route last year. Bowers won the Mackey Award as the nation’s top TE in both 2022 and 2023, becoming the first two-time winner of the award. He was deployed all over the formation at Georgia (53% slot, 37% inline, 10% out wide) and even carried 19 times over the last three years. That speaks to his skills with the ball in his hands: Bowers averaged a big 8.5 yards after catch per reception for his college career. He also boasts impressive ball skills and reliable hands, dropping just 4.4% of his career targets. Bower is a bit undersized at 6’3, 243 pounds and didn’t test in the pre-draft process. But it’s tough to worry about any of that after he dominated for three seasons in the SEC. In Vegas, he joins a squad that spent a 2023 Round 2 pick on TE Michael Mayer. The Raiders lack a QB of the future but offer a nice spot for Bowers to soak up targets long-term. He remains a fringe top-5 pick in rookie drafts.
The Broncos selected Oregon QB Bo Nix in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Nix hit the college scene as one of the top 2019 recruits. Success never arrived at Auburn, though. Across three seasons, Nix never topped 2,500 yards or 20 TDs. You can put some of the blame on an underwhelming supporting cast. Or a coaching staff that simply didn’t highlight Nix’s strengths. Here’s how ESPN college football analyst Paul Finebaum reacted after Nix left Auburn. “I think he has an opportunity to have a really big year somewhere, under the right coach,” Finebaum predicted. “Now, who is the right coach? Certainly, someone who can mirror his game. That was really his problem this year, he was playing in a system that really didn’t suit him.” Well, a complete 180 happened in Oregon under HC Dan Lanning. Nix exploded in 2022 with 3,589 yards, 29 TDs, and only 7 INTs. He popped with an 82.3% adjusted completion rate and 8.8 yards per attempt. Nix’s numbers reached another level in 2023, as he enjoyed another campaign alongside Round 1 WR Troy Franklin. One thing to note: Nix wasn’t one to consistently push the ball downfield. 23% of his attempts at Oregon came on screens. And in 2023, his aDOT hit a shockingly low 6.8 yards. On tape, Nix looks like a polished pro whose timing, accuracy, and decision-making give him a chance to stick as a long-term starter. Landing in Denver gives Nix a good shot at starting Week 1, with Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson as his (meager) competition. This draft position boosts Nix as a dynasty rookie pick. Check our rookie rankings to see where he lands.
The Vikings selected Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. McCarthy won 27 of 28 starts over the past two seasons, but a run-heavy Michigan squad limited the raw production. He averaged only 23.4 passes per game from 2022-2023. He hit 300 yards three times over that stretch. Of course, counting stats make up a small piece of the overall evaluation. Look to the efficiency, and McCarthy thrived – particularly in 2023. He posted an elite yards per attempt (9.0) and adjusted completion rate (80.0%). Running a pro-style system under HC Jim Harbaugh, McCarthy also excelled on throws over the middle of the field. The plus athlete showed his movement skills at the NFL Combine with a 91st percentile 3-cone (6.82) and 72nd percentile shuttle (4.23). He tallied ten rushing TDs for his career. The 6’2, 215-pounder isn’t the most physically imposing QB, but his tape doesn’t give us any arm strength concerns. And he avoided missing time due to an injury. It’s also worth remembering that this Michigan offense wasn’t loaded like the ones Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. played with. Ultimately, the selection of McCarthy is a bet on traits, athleticism, and high character. He’s certainly matched with a bright offensive mind in HC Kevin O'Connell. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson supply an excellent trio of weapons. McCarthy projects as the Week 1 starter over Sam Darnold, but it's far from a lock. The Michigan product looks no better than a low-end QB2 for redraft.
The Falcons selected Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. It’s been a long road for Penix, whose college career began at Indiana. Unfortunately, injuries stole headlines in his four years as a Hoosier. In 2018, he missed four games with a right ACL tear. Four more games were lost the following season due to a right shoulder injury. Then in 2020, Penix retore his right ACL, costing him the last two games. Finally, a shoulder injury robbed him of seven games in 2021. It’s an exhaustive injury history for sure. But his comeback story certainly ended on a high note. Transferring to Washington in 2021, Penix excelled in an play-action based, downfield attack. He compiled 4,641-31-8 in 13 games while playing with a trio of NFL-caliber WRs: Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan. He recorded nine games north of 300 yards. Come 2023, Penix became the first player with 4,500+ yards in back-to-back seasons since Patrick Mahomes (2015-2016). So production/experience – along with arm strength – supply the bull case. On the flip side, it’s fair to question how Penix will perform outside of an excellent situation. That includes his blocking, as Washington’s O-line allowed only 16 sacks over the past two seasons. We also saw what happened when pressure reached Penix in the National Championship vs. Michigan. That game produced his lowest PFF passing grade (50.1) and yards per attempt (5.0) of the year. The Atlanta landing spot is a true head-scratcher. Kirk Cousins just inked a multi-year deal worth $100 million guaranteed. Perhaps he’s not ready to start come Week 1 – but there’s not a clear path to consistent playing time for Penix.
The Bears nabbed WR Rome Odunze with the ninth pick of the NFL Draft. Odunze led the Huskies in catches and receiving TDs in 2021 and then broke out as a redshirt sophomore in 2022 with the arrival of OC Ryan Grubb and QB Michael Penix. Odunze tallied 75 catches, 1,145 yards, and seven TDs that year, while ranking top-45 among 286 qualifying WRs in both Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route. He took another giant leap forward this past season, cranking out an FBS-high 1,640 yards and 13 TDs on 92 receptions. Odunze ranked eighth among 286 qualifying WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 18th in yards per route. And he did it all despite suffering a broken rib and punctured lung in his fifth game. Odunze boosted his draft stock with a better-than-expected Combine showing, earning a 9.92 Relative Athletic Score at 6’3 and 212 pounds. A polished route runner with excellent ball skills, there are shades of Davante Adams in Odunze’s game. He looks ready to make an immediate impact and should quickly emerge as a high-volume target. Odunze will have trouble piling up targets as a rookie, with WRs D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen around. But Allen's not a good bet to remain in the picture beyond 2024. If this landing spot makes Odunze slip at all in your dynasty rookie draft -- take advantage.
The Patriots drafted North Carolina QB Drake Maye in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Maye took over as North Carolina’s starter in 2022 and turned in an incredible sophomore season. He racked up 4,321 yards and 38 TDs vs. just seven INTs on a 66.2% completion rate and 8.4 yards per attempt. Maye ranked third among 93 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grades, displaying an impressive combination of aggression and decision-making. His 8.4% big-time throw rate – a PFF stat for downfield, tight-window completions – ranked second among those 93 QBs, while his 2.4% turnover-worthy play rate ranked 22nd. Maye’s wrong production took a step back last year: 3,608 yards and 24 TDs. He dealt with an ankle injury, an OC change, and the departure of go-to WR Josh Downs. But Maye still completed 63.3% of his passes at 8.5 yards per attempt and ranked seventh among 95 qualifiers in PFF passing grade. He has ideal size at 6’4, 223 pounds with an explosive release and the arm strength to make any throw on the field. Maye is also a plus athlete, throwing well on the run and rushing for 1,147 yards and 16 TDs over the past two seasons. There are shades of Justin Herbert to Maye’s game; he has that type of fantasy ceiling. To reach it, though, the Pats must upgrade the offense around him. For now, Maye’s looking at a WR corps of Demario Douglas, K.J. Osborn, Kendrick Bourne, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. There’s a chance that Jacoby Brissett is the Week 1 starter. Beyond superflex formats, Maye is off the redraft radar.
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