Brock Bowers - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Bowers is one of the best-looking TE prospects to hit the NFL in recent memory. He led Georgia in catches, receiving yards, and TDs in all three seasons on campus and was the 13th overall pick of this spring’s draft.

There are reasons to be cautious about investing in 2024, though. Rookie TEs – even first-rounders – are generally poor fantasy bets, he’ll be sharing a field with target-hog Davante Adams, and the Raiders figure to get below-average QB play.

Bowers might just be good enough to beat those obstacles. There’s certainly top-10 upside here. Just don’t go into the season sure that you’re going to get it.

What We Learned Last Year

• Bowers last year became the first ever two-time winner of the Mackey Award, given to the top TE in college football.
• His 2023 season was interrupted by a left high-ankle sprain in mid-October that required tightrope surgery. Bowers missed four games.
• But he still led Georgia in catches (56), receiving yards (717), and TDs (6).
• In fact, Bowers led the team in all three categories in each of his three seasons – an especially impressive feat at a power program like Georgia.
• Bowers even added 19 carries for 193 yards and 5 TDs for his career.
• He was deployed all over the formation at Georgia (53% slot, 37% inline, 10% out wide).
• His other accolades include:
  • SEC Freshman of the Year
  • All-SEC first team (2021, 2022, 2023)
  • All-American first team (2022, 2023)
  • All-America second team (2021)
• Across his three college seasons, Bowers never finished any lower than third in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, yards per route run, or receiving yards among TEs with at least 50 targets.
• Bowers is a bit undersized at 6’3, 243 pounds and didn’t test in the pre-draft process.
• But that didn’t stop the Raiders from making him the 13th overall pick of this year’s draft (despite already having TE Michael Mayer on the roster.)

What to Expect in 2024

• Bowers became the ninth TE over the past 10 years to go in the first round of the draft. Here’s how the previous eight finished in PPR points per game as rookies:
  • O.J. Howard - 19th
  • Evan Engram - 4th
  • David Njoku - 33rd
  • Hayden Hurst - 65th
  • T.J. Hockenson - 32nd
  • Noah Fant - 29th
  • Kyle Pitts - 12th
  • Dalton Kincaid - 13th
• Bowers joins a Raiders team that spent the 35th overall pick of last year’s draft on TE Michael Mayer. He had a middling rookie campaign, catching 27 balls for 304 yards and two TDs in 14 games
• The Raiders also return WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, who combined to account for 50.4% of the team’s targets last year.
• Vegas does not have an established No. 3 WR (Tre Tucker is the favorite), so this offense could run a lot of 2-TE sets with Bowers and Mayer.
• But it’s unlikely that both guys are reliable fantasy options. There have only been two instances of a team producing two top-12 fantasy TEs in the same season over the last five years, both by the Eagles’ duo of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. There were three other teams that produced a pair of top-20 TEs, but two of those included Taysom Hill. The other was last year’s Falcons, who had Kyle Pitts finish TE13 and Jonnu Smith TE17.
• The Raiders released QB Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason and signed QB Gardner Minshew. He’ll compete with QB Aidan O’Connell for the starting job.
• Minshew and O’Connell ranked 27th and 25th, respectively, among 33 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade last year.
• Antonio Pierce returns as HC after taking over for the final nine games of last year. The Raiders ran it a bit more under Pierce than they did under previous HC Josh McDaniels.
  • Vegas went from a 61.2% pass rate in eight games under McDaniels to 57.3% pass under Pierce.
  • The Raiders registered a -1% Pass Rate Over Expected under McDaniels vs. -3% under Pierce.
• After a deal with Kliff Kingsbury fell through, the Raiders hired Luke Getsy as their new OC in February.
  • Getsy spent the last two years as Bears OC, where Chicago ranked 28th and 20th in total yards and 23rd and 18th in points.
  • The Bears ranked 32nd in pass rate and Pass Rate Over Expected in 2022; 31st in pass rate and 27th in PROE last year.
  • Those offenses were predominantly quarterbacked by Justin Fields, which undoubtedly skewed the offense toward the run. We’re projecting a more balanced attack from Getsy in Vegas. It’s worth noting that he was the Packers’ QB coach and passing-game coordinator before his stint with the Bears.
• GM Tom Telesco referred to Bowers as a “hybrid receiver” shortly after the draft.
• Pierce talked up Bowers’ versatility:
  • “You’re talking about probably the most dynamic football player in college football at that tight end position in a long time. And it’s rare you get a guy like that, that can line up as a slot receiver, see him in the backfield, reverses, catch the ball.”