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Thanksgiving DraftKings Tournament Picks

First: A Note on Late Swapping

I’m professionally obligated to remind you to consider late swapping on the Thanksgiving slate. With three island games, there’s an edge to adjusting your lineup based on how it’s performing after each game.

Nail the Bears-Lions game? You can afford to get chalkier with the rest of your lineup. Completely whiff on that first game? Time to get weird.

Here’s how I’m thinking about each position on this slate in terms of DraftKings tournaments. (You won’t find me playing cash on a three-gamer.)

Quarterbacks

The QB pool is relatively flat, in terms of value and even raw point projections. The “good QBs” – Jared Goff, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, and Caleb Williams – all face top-seven defenses in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

That has me not very interested in paying up for Goff ($6,500), Love ($6,300), or Tagovailoa ($6,000).

$5,300 Caleb Williams, despite the tough matchup, is our top value on the slate – and my favorite play. He’s been much more efficient since the Bears dumped OC Shane Waldron.

Caleb Williams with Shane Waldron:

60.5% comp rate
6.1 yards per attempt

Williams without Waldron:

70.5% comp rate
7.3 yards per attempt

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 25, 2024

Williams has also racked up 103 rushing yards on 15 carries over the past two weeks. He’s had six designed carries in those games after averaging 2.0 per game over his first nine.

The Lions are up to first in pass-defense DVOA, so don’t expect great efficiency from Williams on Thursday. But he should get plenty of volume.

The Bears are 10-point underdogs to a pass-funnel Detroit defense that ranks third in pass rate over expected against and fourth in opponent pass attempts per game.

I’ll also be playing some Cooper Rush ($4,800) in larger-field tournaments. He’s played OK the past two weeks, completing 64% of his passes at 6.9 yards per attempt with 3 TDs vs. 1 INT. 

The Cowboys are letting him chuck it, ranking 12th in pass rate over expected and 13th in neutral pass rate over the last two weeks. That’s led to 87 total passes and 601 passing yards for Rush. 

The Giants rank 29th in pass-defense DVOA and looked like they quit on the season in last week’s 30-7 loss to the Bucs.

Running Backs

This is a strong slate at RB, so most of my teams will have a RB in the Flex spot. Here’s how I rank the six guys I’ll be considering:

1. Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($7,500)

He checks in just fourth among RBs in dollars-per-point value, but I think he has the best chance of breaking the slate. It’s a smash spot for Detroit’s running game as 10-point home favorites against a Bears run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA and 25th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. RB David Montgomery’s shoulder injury means there’s at least some chance Gibbs picks up more work (or Montgomery is forced to leave early).

2. Rico Dowdle, Cowboys ($5,500)

Our top dollars-per-point value at the position. Dowdle has taken control of the Cowboys backfield over the last four weeks, registering:

• A 59% snap rate
• A 46% route rate
• 13.3 carries and 4.3 targets per game

Now he’s in an ideal spot with the Cowboys 3.5-point home favorites against the Giants’ 28th-ranked RB defense.

3. De’Von Achane, Dolphins ($7,700)

He’s topped 20 DraftKings points in four of five games since QB Tua Tagovailoa returned. The floor that his passing-game usage supports is even more valuable on a three-game slate.

4. Josh Jacobs, Packers ($7,000)

Only two teams have a lower pass rate over expected than the Packers over the last four weeks. For Jacobs, that’s meant 20.5 carries, 101 rushing yards, and 1.5 rushing TDs per game.

It’s worth noting that HC Matt LaFleur hinted that Jacobs might cede a bit more work to RBs Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks on the short week. But, with the Packers 3.5-point home favorites, Jacobs is still a good bet for 20+ touches.

5. David Montgomery, Lions ($6,500)

The shoulder injury adds risk and takes him out of consideration in small-field tournaments for me. But Montgomery also has the upside to lead the slate in DraftKings points and figures to come in much lower owned than Gibbs. You know HC Dan Campbell wants to get Montgomery a TD against his former Bears squad.

6. Tyrone Tracy, Giants ($5,800)

Another risk/reward play that I’ll only be mixing into larger-field lineups.

The risks:

• Tracy lost another fumble last week and was out-touched five to four by RBs Devin Singletary and Eric Gray the rest of the way. There’s a chance he continues to lose work on Thanksgiving.
• The Giants might just implode again.

The potential reward:

• Tracy already has spike weeks of 22.7 and 26.0 DraftKings points this season and gets a Cowboys squad ranked 29th in run defense DVOA and 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Tracy also figures to be the lowest owned among these six RBs.

$6,000 D’Andre Swift, who’s losing goal-line and passing-down snaps to Roschon Johnson and gets the Lions’ second-ranked RB defense, is a fade for me.

Wide Receivers

Let’s start with a fade: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000).

He’s run super hot this season on efficiency and TDs, with career highs in catch rate (83.5%) and TD rate (12.7%). But the volume is down. St. Brown is averaging just 7.7 targets per game after 9.1 and 10.3 targets per game the previous two seasons.

I don’t expect a big volume game on Thanksgiving with the Lions likely to go run-heavy. And St. Brown’s individual matchup is difficult. The Bears have been the third-toughest defense against slot receivers this season.

I’ll be hoping St. Brown scores “only” 15-20 DK points at high ownership.

Jameson Williams is relatively overpriced at $6,100 but is worth considering at low ownership in larger-field tournaments. We know he has the ability to produce a nice fantasy score on one play. And he’s totaled 18 targets on an 18% share in three games back from suspension. The Bears gave up multiple deep balls to WR Jordan Addison last week.

All three Bears WRs check in as top five values at the position. Keenan Allen ($5,100) leads the way and is my favorite WR play on the slate. He leads the Bears in raw targets (23) and first-read target share in two games under OC Thomas Brown.

#Bears first-read target shares under OC Thomas Brown over the last 2 weeks (per @FantasyPtsData)

Keenan Allen: 33.8%
Rome Odunze: 26.2%
D.J. Moore: 21.5%

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 26, 2024

The Lions rank 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the slot, where Allen has run 54% of his routes this season.

On my Cooper Rush teams, I’ll be playing both CeeDee Lamb ($7,300) and Malik Nabers ($7,100). Both guys are dealing with shoddy QB play. But they’re also big-time talents who are good bets to see 30+% of their team’s targets against burnable pass defenses.

And last but certainly not least, I’m excited for the chance to play Dontayvion Wicks ($4,200) on this slate. He’s battled a case of the drops this season but has continued to earn targets at an elite rate. Wicks’ 26% targets per route leads the Packers and ranks 12th among all WRs. Romeo Doubs’ absence should bump Wicks into the 70-80% route range vs. the Dolphins. It’s a tough matchup, but I’ll take my chances with Wicks’ talent at this price tag.

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith ($4,300) is not only the best value at TE, he’s the best value at all Flex-eligible positions. He’s topped 22 DraftKings points in two straight games and three of his last six. And he gets the Packers’ 29th-ranked TE defense on Thursday night.

The only argument against Smith is high projected ownership. But I like the idea of penciling him into the TE slot – and then pivoting to Tucker Kraft ($3,700) if you need to get different in the finale. 

Kraft has topped four targets just three times all season and once in his last six games. But he’s a big-play threat (13.1 YPC) and leads the Packers with six receiving TDs. Kraft also gets a Dolphins defense that ranks second in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs but 23rd against TEs.

On the cheap end, I’ll be fading Luke Schoonmaker ($3,400) and playing Theo Johnson ($2,900) instead. Schoonmaker delivered with a late TD last week but saw only four targets on a 59% route rate. Johnson is running more routes and has seen six targets in three straight.

Defense/Special Teams

There’s plenty of sack and takeaway upside with the Cowboys ($3,100) and Giants ($2,800) DSTs.

On my non-Caleb Williams teams, I’ll be looking to get up to the Lions ($3,500). Williams has still taken three sacks in each of his last two games and is up to a league-high 44 sacks on the season.

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.