Rico Dowdle - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Dowdle popped in a couple of games last year, including a 79-yard, 1-TD outing against the Giants.

Overall, his fantasy impact proved minuscule.

We’ll see if Dallas adds another RB ahead of Week 1. But as of now, Zeke Elliott represents a passable roadblock for 2024.

Given Elliott’s career arc and Dallas’ strong offense, Dowdle could eventually pay off as a later-round stash.

What We Learned Last Year

• Dowdle re-signed on a one-year, $950K contract in March.
• Zeke Elliott’s departure allowed Dowdle to handle RB2 duties behind Tony Pollard.
  • Still, that afforded only 89 carries across 16 games. Despite Pollard’s down season, he appeared in all 17 games.
  • Dowdle missed one contest with an ankle injury. That issue appeared on the injury report in several other weeks.
• In the small sample, his advanced metrics paint the picture of an average RB.
  • Among 53 RBs with 80+ carries, Dowdle ranked 23rd in EPA per rush, 30th in yards per carry, 12th in yards after contact per attempt, and 38th in success rate.
• He flashed as a pass-catcher with 17-144-2 -- good for 8.5 yards per catch.
  • He added two drops.

What to Expect in 2024

• Dowdle re-signed on a one-year, $1.225 million deal.
• Dallas allowed Tony Pollard to walk to the Titans.
  • His absence removes 252 carries and 67 targets.
• The Cowboys brought back Ezekiel Elliott on a one-year deal worth $2 million guaranteed. He’s coming off an uninspiring season in New England.
  • Among 36 RBs with 150+ carries, Elliott ranked 28th in EPA per rush, 34th in yards per carry, 31st in yards after contact per attempt, and 34th in success rate.
  • HC Mike McCarthy called this backfield a “running back by committee” in May. Elliott is the likely leader, despite his recent play and advanced RB age (29).
• Dallas passed on adding a RB in the 2024 draft. Beyond Elliott, Dowdle’s main competition figures to come from veteran Royce Freeman, who brings little in the receiving game.
• Dallas’ offensive infastructure remains ideal for the running game, given the presence of Dak Prescott and a WR1 alpha in CeeDee Lamb.
  • Two new starters will show up along the O-line, including Round 1 OT Tyler Guyton. Overall, it’s not a unit we’re worried about.
  • Last year, the Cowboys ranked fourth in run-block win rate.