David Montgomery - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Montgomery’s primary risk factors are the presence of Jahmyr Gibbs and the chance (likelihood?) of regression in his TD rate. They would be more worrisome if the market were underrating those factors. But best ball ADP has Montgomery valued right where our half-PPR RB rankings do. And that market is undervaluing RBs in general. Montgomery remains most attractive with less reception scoring. But he’s a usable asset across formats.

What We Learned Last Year

• The Lions showed that they let Jamaal Williams walk while paying up for Montgomery because they view Monty as Williams-plus.
  • Williams, of course, scored a league-high 17 rushing TDs in 2022 before leaving for New Orleans in free agency.
  • Montgomery tied for third among all RBs with 13 rushing scores last year, despite missing three games and sharing the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs.
• Montgomery opened the year with a larger share of the workload but predictably ceded some of that to the rookie as the year progressed.
  • Over their first seven healthy games together, Montgomery garnered 57.8% carry share vs. just 28.9% for Gibbs.
  • From Week 10 on, however, that gap shrunk dramatically: 48.8% for Montgomery vs. 40.2% for Gibbs.
  • The rookie also more than doubled the vet in target share for the year: 12.3% to 4.95%.
• Montgomery still tied for 15th among RBs in PPR points per game.
  • He checked in 12th in half-PPR and sixth in non-PPR.
• The main driver: His high TD rate. Montgomery scored on 5.94% of his carries last year. Only four RBs scored at a higher rate.
  • But Gibbs finished right behind him. And, of course, then Lions RB Jamaal Williams led the NFL in rushing scores the year before.
• Lions RBs have ranked first and third in total PPR points in OC Ben Johnson’s two seasons at that post. (They retained him this offseason despite multiple HC interviews.)
• The offense has also finished each of those seasons fifth in the league in scoring. Detroit has ranked among the top 4 in total yards and top 7 in offensive DVOA each year.
• The O-line tied San Francisco for the league lead in adjusted line yards in 2023, according to FTN.
  • That marked easily the best blocking of Montgomery’s career. Just one of his four Bears teams ranked higher than 23rd (11th in 2022).

What to Expect in 2024

• Let’s start with a couple of negative aspects:
  • Gibbs’ presence obviously limits Montgomery to some degree, both his season-long upside and his weekly touch consistency.
  • There’s likely to be some TD regression.
• Now let’s get to why you shouldn’t worry too much about either of those.
  • First, we already saw Montgomery deliver fantasy points at a fine clip even with his work split much more even over the second half of last year.
    • From Week 10 on, Montgomery ranked 13th among RBs in PPR points per game; ninth in non-PPR.
  • Second, this is – and should remain – one of the league’s best RB situations.
    • Detroit ranks 25th in the league in situation-neutral pass rate under OC Ben Johnson, according to RBSDM.com. That included ranking 25th last season.
    • The O-line should remain strong, and might be in even better shape. LT Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnow each missed a pair of games last year. And the only starter not returning is G Jonah Jackson, whom Pro Football Focus graded poorest among the group in run blocking. Baltimore replaced him with free agent Kevin Zeitler, who is 34 and no lock for strong performance. But he has also earned higher run-blocking grades in each of his 12 seasons than Jackson did last year.
  • Third, the Lions love running the ball near the goal line – and visit that range a lot.
    • Montgomery tied for third in the league in carries inside the 5 last year, according to Pro Football Reference. That came despite missing three games and seeing limited time in several others. Jamaal Williams led the league in that category the year before – by eight carries (28-20).
    • QB Jared Goff, meanwhile, ranked sixth and fifth in pass attempts from inside the 10 the past two years – according to PFR.
    • That combo highlights how often the No. 5 scoring offense each of the past two years gets near the goal line.
• It might seem like Montgomery’s been around for a long time, but he just turned 27 in June. According to our historical aging data, nearly all RB types remain near peak production at that point in their careers – with potential steep drops looming in the age-29 campaign.