Jonnu Smith - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Smith retained fantasy relevance in 2023, despite bottom-barrel QB play.

Tua Tagovailoa supplies a massive QB upgrade. But his targets are set to dip as he plays alongside Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Current projections have Smith at 54 targets, putting him outside the top-25 TEs. So he’s a fine TE3 target in best ball but not someone to count on in early-season matchups.

What We Learned Last Year

• Smith split TE duties with Kyle Pitts in Atlanta.
• Overcoming ugly QB play, Smith tallied 50-582-3 in 17 games.
• He played under HC Arthur Smith, who coached him in Tennessee.
• The former Titan finished as a top-10 fantasy TE in five separate weeks.
• Smith, however, faded down the stretch.
  • He topped 35 yards in only one of his final eight games.
• Overall, Smith’s underlying profile proved solid.
  • He tied a career high with 14 missed tackles forced.
  • He beat his career averages in yards after catch per reception (7.3), yards per route run (1.55), yards per catch (11.6) and catch rate (72.5%).
• Atlanta took advantage of his versatility, utilizing him in the slot on 52.8% of his passing snaps.
  • 13.7% of such snaps were spent out wide.

What to Expect in 2024

• Smith joins a TE depth chart that includes returning starter Durham Smythe.
  • Smythe notched only 35-366-0 in 16 games. He saw a 7.8% target share (43 total).
• Smith signed a two-year free agent deal with nearly $4 million guaranteed. The 29 year-old projects for lead TE duties.
• Translating that to reliable fantasy production will be tricky, though.
  • Miami returns Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. That duo accounted for a 50% target share last year.
  • They added Odell Beckham in free agency – and spent two late-round picks on WRs Malik Washington and Tahj Washington.
• Miami’s 2023 offense wasn’t pass-heavy.
  • They ranked 12th in pass rate over expected; 22nd in raw pass rate.