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Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 7

Opportunity in Wake of Cowboys Loss

CeeDee Lamb and his Cowboys just got blasted at home by the Lions. And now comes a Week 7 bye.

Weird time to feature the disappointing first-round fantasy pick, right?

Or maybe it's the perfect time. Let's jump in ...

Week 6 Buys

• CeeDee Lamb
• Josh Jacobs
• Rome Odunze

Week 6 Sells

• Davante Adams
• Kareem Hunt
• Jayden Reed

Week 6 Holds

• David Montgomery
• Tank Bigsby

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Fantasy Trade Targets (Buy)

These guys promise upside for the coming weeks.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb’s sure been disappointing for a guy who was supposed to be safe, and who likely went first or second overall in your draft.

He ranks 17th among WRs in PPR points per game. And even worse, Lamb sits just 28th in target share. What are the chances he rebounds from that?

Well, he did so last year.

Lamb hit the Week 7 bye in 2023 as the WR13 in PPR and tied for 30th in target share. People were blasting QB Dak Prescott (what else is new?) and mocking anyone who believed Lamb would become a true No. 1 WR.

Then he went from 7 targets per game pre-bye to 12.6 per game the rest of the way. And he delivered the production that made him this year’s “safe” draft starter.

How many other answers do you see in Dallas besides the Cowboys figuring out how to get him on track again?

Lamb’s already seen target shares of 29.6% or better in three of six games this year.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers

You ready for a bold prediction?

Jacobs will finish this season with more than 1 TD per six games.

That’s the ratio so far this year, but more opportunities are bound to come his way.

Green Bay ranks fourth in the league in total yards and yards per play, despite losing its starting QB for two of six games. The Packers have exceeded 410 total yards in three of Jordan Love’s four appearances.

RB Getting High-Value Touches

Jacobs has handled 100% of his team’s carries inside the 5-yard line and 90% of those inside the 10-yard line. Those shares rank tied for first in the league (duh) and third.

But Jacobs sits tied for just ninth in carries inside the 5 and tied for 11th on attempts inside the 10.

Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams have each scored six times from inside the 10 despite each seeing smaller percentages of their teams’ carries in that range. Jacobs’ rebound is coming.

This week finds his Packers tied for the week’s fifth-highest implied team total. Next week holds a high-upside matchup with the Jaguars.

Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears

This isn’t a “buy” that’s going to help you right away. Odunze has topped 40 receiving yards just once so far this season, and that came with Keenan Allen sidelined.

But the rookie’s quiet day against the Jags also masked positive usage. Despite Allen’s return for the past three games, Odunze has stayed on the field plenty. He ran one more route than Allen in Week 4, two more in Week 5 and then trailed him by just five in Week 6.

That means Chicago is running three WRs as its base offense now, alongside a rookie QB who has set new personal highs in Pro Football Focus passing grade each of the past four games.

History also tells us that Odunze and Allen could soon present intersecting trend lines.

Rookie WRs historically trend up late in that first season. That doesn’t mean they all pay off, of course. But a top-10 pick getting early opportunity and playing with an improving QB makes for at least a solid bet.

Allen, meanwhile, heads into the second half of his age-32 season. Our historical aging data shows that nearly all WR archetypes perform well below their career peaks in that season. Allen has also been no stranger to injury, losing multiple games each of the past three seasons and four of his past five.

Grab Odunze now on the cheap and the late-season payoff could be big.

Recent Buys

Let's look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we'd treat those players now ...

• If you're going to try to buy Hill, do it before Tua Tagovailoa returns to the field. He's eligible to come off IR as early as Week 8.
• Warren's return happened to coincide with easily Najee Harris' best rushing performance of the year: 14-106-1. That also happened to coincide with the Raiders matchup. That outing probably bought Harris some extra backfield-leading time. But it's also currently an outlier vs. a six-game start that included just 3.3 yards per carry and 0 TDs.
• Johnson got the targets again (10) and delivered a 6-78-1 receiving line against the Falcons. Just the kind of production we're looking for regularly. His three-good, three-bad set of games through six weeks, though, gives him a chance of still being undervalued. All three good have come with Andy Dalton (vs. one bad).
• The Davante Adams trade likely re-opened a buy window on Wilson, with many fantasy managers fearing that Adams is going to charge in and take over targets. It can't hurt to see if the Wilson manager in your league is panicking. Just don't overpay. There's plenty of uncertainty to the altered situation.
• We all know that no San Francisco asset is going to rack up big target numbers every week. Aiyuk has exceeded 5 targets just twice through six games, though. If you've already got him, just understand the inconsistent asset you have. If you don't, then Aiyuk's big Week 5 probably makes him more expensive than you'd want.
• Sutton remains the top target in Denver, with Javonte Williams 21 behind (47-26) at No. 2. But he has also seen sub-19% target shares in two straight games and topped 4 receptions in a game just once through six outings. Sutton has reached 60 yards in a game just twice and has yet to reach 70. Yet he has also caught TDs in two of the past three weeks, which is bound to increase his trade price. And he's down to 19th among WRs in expected PPR points per game -- compared with No. 5 back when we called him a buy. Sutton's still OK to add, just don't go too hard after him.

Fantasy Sells 

Weekly reminder: These are not necessarily "must" sells. More in the descriptions ...

Davante Adams, WR, New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers gets back his stud WR from Green Bay. Big numbers ahead!

Maybe.

Or maybe Adams trades off positive weeks with Garrett Wilson, who is 7.5 years younger.

Or maybe he even trails Wilson in targets the rest of the way.

Rodgers has been praising Wilson’s talent since his first summer with the Jets, even comparing the young wideout’s “ability to get in and out of breaks to Davante Adams.” And just a month ago, Rodgers said that once he and Wilson got “on the same page, it’s gonna be special.”

If you’ve been holding Adams this long, might as well shop him and see if anyone in your league has visions of the guy who was a late Round 1 fantasy pick just last year – and a Round 2 selection for much of this summer.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Hunt has led the Chiefs’ backfield in both games since he joined the team and delivered an especially big performance last time out.

He racked up 27 carries, 102 yards, 1 TD, 1-15 receiving and the fifth-best PPR score at the position in Week 5. And that opened a sell window.

Uncertainty Around Pacheco

Hunt draws his greatest upside boost and biggest risk from the same source: Isiah Pacheco’s uncertain status.

Pacheco went down in Week 2, and his return timeline was expected to be 6-8 weeks. HC Andy Reid later intimated that the team didn’t know for sure whether the RB would return this season.

Pacheco’s on IR for at least one more game. The end of Week 8 will then mark six weeks from his initial injury. Some say he could be in play for Week 10.

Seems like we’re probably getting at least three more games without Pacheco.

What About the Matchups?

Hunt at the Raiders in Week 8 looks like a nice starting option. But that’s sandwiched between two tougher spots.

This week has the Chiefs visiting the league’s No. 5 defense in total DVOA. The 49ers sit mid-pack in allowing fantasy points to RBs. But they’ve been much friendlier to RBs in the passing game (fifth-most receiving yards) than rushing (23rd).

Hunt has been splitting passing-game work with Samaje Perine.

After the Raiders game comes a home date with the Bucs, who have been the eighth-worst scoring matchup for RBs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Fire Sale?

None of this means you should just let Hunt go for whatever you can get. Odds are you didn’t invest a whole lot to get him in the first place, so you’re not losing much if you hold him until he’s no longer useful.

But there’s sell-high potential if you target a RB-needy league mate now, after the Raiders matchup or at any other point that suits your needs.

Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers

If you’ve got Reed, you probably don’t want to see this one. You’re undoubtedly quite happy with a guy who has delivered top-5 scoring at the position even while losing his QB for two weeks.

And I get it. Dude has added 4.0 yards per catch over last year and scored more TDs rushing than George Pickens or Brandon Aiyuk has receiving.

But it’s going to be tough for Reed to stay anywhere near his early pace.

Regression Candidate

Reed sits ninth among WRs in PPR points per game so far. He’s also 49th at the position in expected points per game.

Even if you take just the four Jordan Love games, Reed ranks WR3 in points per game; 37th in expected.

Those 4.0 more yards per catch have come despite his aDOT getting 2.9 yards shorter so far. Sure, the two Malik Willis games dragged that down. But Reed also went for a season-low -1.8 aDOT last week against Arizona.

Reed has scored 4 total TDs vs. 1.2 expected. Three have come from 15+ yards out, including Week 1 scores from 33 and 70 yards away.

Only Move for Big Return

We can probably agree that Reed isn’t likely to score as a WR1 the rest of the way. Of course, he doesn’t have to do that to help you the rest of the way.

So I’m not telling you to sell Reed quickly before he crashes. I’m saying to see if you can sell high – for a WR1-level return – before his scoring comes back down to where it’s more likely to settle.

And if you can’t find that big return, just keep rolling with him. None of us expects Reed to crash.

Recent Sells

Let's look back at our Sell recommendations from last two weeks and how we'd treat those players now ...

Fantasy Holds

You might want to hang on to these guys for now to see what happens.

David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions

There’s definitely some luck to Montgomery’s fantasy performance so far. He sits eighth among RBs in PPR points per game on RB22 usage.

He’s tied for second-most rushing scores at the position on the 16th-most carries, finding the end zone at least once in each of the first five games.

Montgomery’s obviously not going to score in every game. But he does play in the offense that leads the league in scoring, ranks third in yards per play, and sits tied for third in rushing attempts per game.

It’s OK to move Montgomery if an opportunity arises that boosts your roster. The DS crew just isn’t ready to send you on a Sell crusade just yet.

Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

If someone’s coming hard after Bigsby, feel free to let him go for a good profit. We’re just not sure you can find that this week.

Bigsby flubbed his Week 6 opportunity, logging just 7 carries and 0 targets in a Week 6 game Travis Etienne left early with a new injury. D’Ernest Johnson wound up with 6 carries and more total opportunities (8).

If Etienne misses Week 7, though, Bigsby would get another shot to inflate his value bubble.

The Patriots have yielded the sixth-most RB PPR points per game so far and head in as a 5.5-point underdog. So there should be plenty of RB carries.

If we get another strong Bigsby game this weekend, fire up the Sell wagon.

Recent Holds

Let's see where Holds from the past two weeks stand.

• You might remember that I presented a bit of a "choose your adventure" on Swift in last week's Hold section. Playing the Bears RB in Week 6 certainly worked out: 119 total yards, 4 receptions, 1 TD. The Week 7 bye makes him tough to sell right now. And then comes another positive matchup with Washington, which just lost DT Jonathan Allen for the season. I'd continue holding at least through then. After that, you could pick your sell spot. Swift's truly rough stretch of matchups begins in Week 12.
• Last week's word on Mooney was that he probably wouldn't bring back enough of a return to make selling him worthwhile. Three catches for 38 yards at Carolina isn't likely to help that this week.
• Whoa! A TD for Mark Andrews! I'm old enough to remember the last time that happened. If you find a sell-high opportunity off that, go for it. Otherwise, he probably remains a hold.
• Brown has scored in three straight games. That his Week 6 TD came on a late 30-yard run might make him seem fluky, but Brown's usage seems to be trending up. He looks like more of a buy than anything else. Jared has more in his latest Usage report.

How Should You Attack These Trade Targets?

The Trade Navigator will help you find what you want ... and the league mates who need what you got. And then it'll help you build that season-changing trade package.

Check out this short video to learn more ...

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.