Davante Adams - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

There are reasons to worry about Adams heading into 2024. His yards per target, yards per route run, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year were his worst marks since at least 2017. Vegas’ QB play is a concern. And he’ll face added target competition from rookie TE Brock Bowers.

But Adams remained a target hog last year, ranking second league-wide in both total targets and target share. He’s ranked top-two in both metrics in each of the last three seasons.

If he maintains something close to that level of volume in 2024, it’ll be tough for Adams to not score as at least a solid WR2.

What We Learned Last Year

• Adams caught 103 passes for 1,144 yards and eight TDs last year.
• He finished 10th among WRs in total PPR points; 17th in PPR points per game.
• He was a relatively volatile weekly producer. Adams scored as a top-8 PPR WR in four weeks but ranked outside the top-40 five times.
• His 175 targets ranked second league-wide behind only CeeDee Lamb’s 181.
• Adams has ranked second in targets in each of the last three seasons (169, 180, 175 targets).
• His target shares and ranks among WRs:
  • 2021 - 30.4% (2nd)
  • 2022 - 31.2% (1st)
  • 2023 - 31.0% (2nd)
• Adams finished last year with his lowest yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade since 2017. His 6.5 yards per target was his worst since 2015.
• Adams’ ranks in those three categories among 80 WRs with 50+ targets last year:
  • 70th in yards per target
  • 27th in yards per route
  • 22nd in PFF receiving grade
• Adams didn’t get much help from his QBs last year. The Raiders ranked:
  • 23rd in passing yards
  • 22nd in passing TDs
  • 21st in PFF passing grade

What to Expect in 2024

• The Raiders released QB Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason and signed QB Gardner Minshew. He’ll compete with QB Aidan O’Connell for the starting job.
• Minshew and O’Connell ranked 27th and 25th, respectively, among 33 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade last year.
• Adams figures to get below-average QB play again this season.
• He’ll face added target competition after the Raiders spent the 13th overall pick of this spring’s draft on TE Brock Bowers.
• WR Jakobi Meyers and TE Michael Mayer, who ranked second and fourth on the team in targets last year, return. RB Josh Jacobs, who finished third in targets, is gone.
• Antonio Pierce returns as HC after taking over for the final nine games of last year. The Raiders ran it a bit more under Pierce than they did under previous HC Josh McDaniels.
  • Vegas went from a 61.2% pass rate in eight games under McDaniels to 57.3% pass under Pierce.
  • The Raiders registered a -1% Pass Rate Over Expected under McDaniels vs. -3% under Pierce.
• Adams’ production got a slight boost from McDaniels to Pierce.
  • Per-game averages with McDaniels:
    • 9.8 targets (29.8% share)
    • 5.9 catches
    • 67.4 yards
    • 0.4 TDs
  • Per-game averages with Pierce:
    • 10.8 targets (32.9% share)
    • 6.2 catches
    • 67.2 yards
    • 0.6 TDs
• After a deal with Kliff Kingsbury fell through, the Raiders hired Luke Getsy as their new OC in February.
  • Getsy spent the last two years as Bears OC, where Chicago ranked 28th and 20th in total yards and 23rd and 18th in points.
  • The Bears ranked 32nd in pass rate and Pass Rate Over Expected in 2022; 31st in pass rate and 27th in PROE last year.
  • Those offenses were predominantly quarterbacked by Justin Fields, which undoubtedly skewed the offense toward the run. We’re projecting a more balanced attack from Getsy in Vegas. It’s worth noting that he was the Packers’ QB coach and passing-game coordinator before his stint with the Bears.
• Adams will play most of the 2024 season at 31 years old. Our aging-curve research says that we can still expect 85-90% of peak production from a 31-year-old WR of Adams’ caliber.