Jayden Reed - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Reed enjoyed an undeniably strong debut season. That followed a college career in which he impressed and showed versatility at both stops. There are two potential issues for his 2024, though: 1) Green Bay’s crowded WR group and potentially run-leaning offense muddy the target outlook. 2) Reed is widely favored as the top Packers WR in fantasy going forward. As long as he stays in WR3 territory, you can go ahead and bet on the upside. But watch his market price leading up to your drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Reed led the Packers in targets per game, receptions, receiving yards, and total TDs as a second-round rookie.
• His 68.1% catch rate led all WRs on the team.
• His 8 TD catches tied Romeo Doubs for the team lead.
• Reed added 11 carries for 119 yards and two more TDs. Only QB Jordan Love scored more on the ground (4 TDs) among Packers.
  • Reed tied for seventh among NFL WRs in rushing attempts.
  • He ranked third in rushing yards, behind Deebo Samuel and Rondale Moore.
• Reed ranked third among Packers in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
  • His 1.95 yards per route ranked second and placed 26th among 96 NFL WRs who drew at least 40 targets.
• Reed drew a target on 22.9% of his routes. That ranked third among Packers but trailed only Bo Melton among Green Bay WRs. And Reed ran 424 routes to Melton’s 91, according to PFF.
• Reed ranked second among Packers wideouts in playing time, trailing Doubs by a decent amount. He also trailed Christian Watson if looking only at games played.
• Reed’s playing time fluctuated throughout the season.
  • He played 50% of offensive snaps or more in each of the first five games but then dipped below that level for two of his next three.
  • Reed would dip below 50% two more times, even if you exclude the games on either side of a Week 16 he missed with a toe injury. That included 46% snap share, three targets and zero catches in the playoff win at Dallas.
  • However, Reed also exceeded 60% playing time in four of his final seven contests. That included the playoff loss to the 49ers, when Reed trailed only Doubs in playing time.
• The fluctuations highlighted Reed’s role as primarily a slot WR in a run-leaning offense.
  • His 75.2% slot rate led the team by a wide margin. The nearest Packers WR was Samori Toure (42.7%), who played just 89 total pass snaps to Reed’s 447.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Packers remain crowded at WR (and TE … and RB). The eight combined WRs and TEs among the team’s top 10 in targets last season included five rookies and three second-year players.
  • A healthier Watson (if that’s possible) could further challenge the playing time. Packers coaches have sought to keep him involved when the speedster’s available.
  • Wicks performed well by advanced metrics as a rookie and could push for more playing time in his second season.
  • Doubs looks least efficient among the lead group of four wideouts. But he ranked second among Packers WRs in playing time as a 2022 rookie and then led the WRs in snaps and the team in targets last year. HC Matt LaFleur has also said Doubs had an “outstanding spring” this year.
• Reed’s immediate strong production and heavy involvement suggest we should bet on future production. But if Green Bay continues to run these WRs from similar spots and align its offense similar to last year, then Reed’s playing time could remain inconsistent.
• There’s room for the Packers to lean more toward the pass in 2024.
  • LaFleur’s run as HC started with much more of a pass lean but gradually moved to run-favoring. Check the team’s annual ranking in neutral pass rate since he arrived:
    • 2019: fifth
    • 2020: 10th
    • 2021: 11th
    • 2022: 18th
    • 2023: 20th
  • The pass-rate declines the past two years are easy to explain. Green Bay traded away Davante Adams ahead of 2022, leaving Allen Lazard as the target leader. Last year, of course, was the first without Aaron Rodgers.
  • But 2023 produced a strong passing season from Jordan Love and enticing performances by the young pass-catchers.
• If LaFleur uses 2023 to fuel at least some shift toward more passing volume in 2024, then the increase in available targets would obviously help the group.
• The Packers also paid up for RB Josh Jacobs in free agency, though, and then drafted RB MarShawn Lloyd in Round 3.
  • That all means we’ll have to wait for signals of the offense’s direction, rather than making assumptions.