Nico Collins - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Collins earned a big contract extension this offseason and likely stays as C.J. Stroud’s top WR even after the team traded for Stefon Diggs.

His ideal fit for OC Bobby Slowik’s offense allowed Collins to routinely get open and put up numerous WR1 games last year.

Though his target share may decrease, the passing game efficiency should keep Collins as a borderline WR1 again this season.

What We Learned Last Year

• Collins’ per-game averages were all the best of his career:
  • 7.27 targets
  • 5.33 receptions
  • 86.5 yards
  • 16.2 yards per catch
  • 0.53 TDs
• He ranked as the PPR WR18 in total fantasy points (225.9) and WR18 in points per game (9.7).
• He missed two games last year (Week 10 & Week 15) due to a calf injury.
• He had five top-12 finishes. He also had four WR37 or worse finishes.
• Collins’ target share improved from 19.1% in 2022 (45th best among WRs) to 21.9% (34th best among WRs).
• Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, Collins ranked
  • 7th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 2nd in yards per route run (3.10)
  • 46th in average target depth (11.5)
• Among those same 92 WRs, Collins was 27th in average separation yards (3.0), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

• Collins signed a three-year, $72.75 million contract to stay with the Texans with $52 million guaranteed. His $24.25 million per year ranks eighth among WRs.
• QB C.J. Stroud enters his second season under HC DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik.
• The Texans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They have the highest win total in the AFC South at 9.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They also have the eighth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600 on most sportsbooks, best in the division.
• Collins enters his eighth season at 25 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Collins’ career will produce at peak value at age 25.
• He’ll face tougher target competition this year with Stefon Diggs joining Tank Dell in the WR corps. But Collins notably beat Diggs and Dell last year in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade.