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Nico Collins - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsNico Collins's Basic Stats

Nico Collins
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 3
Age: 25.6
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.50
Speed Score: 109.20

SPARQx (Rank): 108.40 (64%)
Burst Score (Rank): 126.30 (75%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.11 (67%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.33 (94%)

Nico Collins's Weekly Outlook

Week 9 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
0 0 0 0
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.3 73.1 0.5 10

Nico Collins's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#14 Wide Receiver

219.8 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 75.4 1050.8 6.56 1 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsNico Collins's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Collins earned a big contract extension this offseason and likely stays as C.J. Stroud’s top WR even after the team traded for Stefon Diggs.

His ideal fit for OC Bobby Slowik’s offense allowed Collins to routinely get open and put up numerous WR1 games last year.

Though his target share may decrease, the passing game efficiency should keep Collins as a borderline WR1 again this season.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Collins’ per-game averages were all the best of his career:
    • 7.27 targets
    • 5.33 receptions
    • 86.5 yards
    • 16.2 yards per catch
    • 0.53 TDs
  • He ranked as the PPR WR18 in total fantasy points (225.9) and WR18 in points per game (9.7).
  • He missed two games last year (Week 10 & Week 15) due to a calf injury.
  • He had five top-12 finishes. He also had four WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Collins’ target share improved from 19.1% in 2022 (45th best among WRs) to 21.9% (34th best among WRs).
  • Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, Collins ranked
    • 7th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
    • 2nd in yards per route run (3.10)
    • 46th in average target depth (11.5)
  • Among those same 92 WRs, Collins was 27th in average separation yards (3.0), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Collins signed a three-year, $72.75 million contract to stay with the Texans with $52 million guaranteed. His $24.25 million per year ranks eighth among WRs.
  • QB C.J. Stroud enters his second season under HC DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik.
  • The Texans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They have the highest win total in the AFC South at 9.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They also have the eighth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600 on most sportsbooks, best in the division.
  • Collins enters his eighth season at 25 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Collins’ career will produce at peak value at age 25.
  • He’ll face tougher target competition this year with Stefon Diggs joining Tank Dell in the WR corps. But Collins notably beat Diggs and Dell last year in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Stefon Diggs, WR HOU

1:47pm EDT 10/29/24

Official: Stefon Diggs Has ACL Tear

Texans WR Stefon Diggs will miss the remainder of the season with a torn right ACL. His season ends with 47 catches, 496 yards, and 3 TDs in less than 8 full games.

View Full Story »

Texans WR Nico Collins (hamstring) is "on track" to return when first eligible in Week 10, according to insider Aaron Wilson. Collins has been setback-free in his rehab so far, per Wilson, and has been clocked at 20 mph in his training. “It’s all very encouraging,” a source told Wilson. “Nico is doing well.” Collins was leading all WRs in PPR points through four healthy weeks and will return as a WR1 in fantasy lineups.

View all Nico Collins Shark Bites »

The Texans placed WR Nico Collins on IR. That knocks him out for at least the next four games vs. the Patriots, Packers, Colts, and Jets. Collins will be eligible to return for Week 10's game against the Lions. "While hamstrings can be tricky, the belief is that Nico Collins will be back sooner, rather than later," NFL Network's Ian Rapoport tweets.

View Full Story »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Nico Collins, WR HOU
Dynasty MVP 64.7
Position Rank #6 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
470
767
1,410
Dynasty Write-up
Collins really took off in 2023 alongside C.J. Stroud (80-1,297-8). 2024 was going to turn up a contract year, but Collins inked a three-year extension in May. Now we'll see how targets are divided up following the arrival of Stefon Diggs.
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