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C.J. Stroud - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsC.J. Stroud’s Basic Stats

C.J. Stroud
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 1
Age: 23.1
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 218
40 Time: 4.79

C.J. Stroud's Weekly Outlook

Week 12 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
233.7 1.63 0.6 13.2 16.7
Weekly Writeup
Stroud was not at his best in last week's win over the Cowboys, throwing for 257 scoreless yards. He averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, though, and is now at 7.8 yards per attempt in six games with WR Nico Collins this season. Stroud is in a nice spot this weekend at home for the Titans, who rank 18th in pass defense DVOA and 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
236.8 1.7 0.6 12.3 17.3

C.J. Stroud's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#10 Quarterback

298.1 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 360.9/552.3 4193.9 28.69 9.8 48.2 200 3.4

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsC.J. Stroud's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

After an incredible rookie season, the Texans are going all-in on rookie contract Stroud with upgrades to the offense and defense.

Trading for Stefon Diggs has pushed Stroud up draft boards as a top-7 QB option with arguably the best set of weapons in the NFL.

With an exceptional young OC in Bobby Slowik staying for his second year, there is major upside for Stroud due to his cerebral ability. Even without much rushing upside, he’s a good bet for at least mid-range QB1 production this year.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Stroud finished as the QB12 in total fantasy points (254.5) and QB15 in points per game (15.9).
  • Stroud’s 3,844 passing yards ranked ninth among QBs. His 21 passing TDs ranked 13th.
  • He missed two games (Week 15-16) due to a concussion suffered in Week 14.
  • Stroud had six top-12 finishes. He had only one QB25 or worse finish.
  • Stroud’s per-game averages were excellent for a rookie:
    • 63.9% completion rate
    • 273.9 yards
    • 1.53 TDs
    • 0.33 INTs
    • 8.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt
  • Among the 45 QBs with 135+ dropbacks, Stroud ranked:
    • 14th in Pro Football Focus passing grade (79.4)
    • 21st in Big Time Throw percentage (4.3%)
    • 27th in Turnover Worthy Play percentage (2.9%)
    • 10th in Time to Throw (2.93 seconds)
    • 16th in Completion Percentage Above Expectation (+0.9%)
  • Stroud played behind an average O-line that ranked 19th in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Stroud enters his second season with the Texans under HC DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik.
  • The Texans continued investing in the offense around Stroud by adding:
    • WR Stefon Diggs (trade)
    • RB Joe Mixon (FA)
    • OT Blake Fisher (2nd Round)
    • TE Cade Stover (4th Round)
  • The Texans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They have the highest win total in the AFC South at 9.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They also have the eighth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600 on most sportsbooks, best in the division.
  • Stroud enters his second season at 22 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average QB with Stroud’s career will produce at 91% of peak value at age-22.

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C.J. Stroud, QB HOU

8:58am EST 11/11/24

C.J. Stroud Cools After Hot Start

QB C.J. Stroud helped stake the Texans to a 23-7 first-half lead Sunday night against the Lions but wound up struggling -- predictably -- the rest of the way. He threw for 164 yards and a TD on 14-of-20 passing in the first half, finding WR John Metchie in the end zone late in the second quarter. But Stroud went just 6 for 13 after the break, for 68 yards and a pair of INTs.

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Texans WR Nico Collins (hamstring) is inactive for tonight’s game vs. the Lions. It was a strange week for Collins, who didn’t practice until Friday before being moved onto the active roster on Saturday but still ending up inactive. We’d expect him back for Week 11 but will track his status this coming week. Collins’ absence is bad news for QB C.J. Stroud, who’s averaged just 6.3 yards per pass attempt without Collins over the last four games.

View all Nico Collins Shark Bites »

Texans WR Tank Dell was listed as Questionable on the final injury report after a limited practice on Friday. Dell's Week 10 status is now in jeopardy after sustaining the injury at practice.

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Texans WR Nico Collins (hamstring) remained sidelined for Thursday's practice, according to insider Aaron Wilson. Although all reports on Collins' rehab from his Week 5 hamstring injury have been positive, it doesn't look like Houston plans to activate him for Sunday night's game vs. the Lions. That's bad news for QB C.J. Stroud, who's averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt in five games with Collins this season but just 6.3 yards per attempt in four games without Collins.

View all Nico Collins Shark Bites »

Texans QB C.J. Stroud mustered just 191 scoreless yards on 11-of-30 passing in Thursday night's loss to the Jets. It was his third game among the last four with fewer than 200 passing yards. The 37% completion rate was a career low. Stroud was vibing with WR Tank Dell, connecting on six of nine attempts for 126 yards. But all other Texans caught just five of 21 targets for 65 yards. That's 3.1 yards per pass attempt.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

C.J. Stroud, QB HOU
Dynasty MVP 31.4
Position Rank #7 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
833
1,438
2,894
Dynasty Write-up
In college, Stroud certainly benefited from a cast of all-star WRs: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Emeka Egbuka. Stroud showed pin-point accuracy on tape, however, and that's quickly carried over to the pro game. Only 22, his arrow is pointing up, despite a hot and cold 2024 that included injuries to Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs.
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