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Adam Thielen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAdam Thielen's Basic Stats

Adam Thielen
ADP: N/A
Bye: 11
Experience: 10
Age: 34.2
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 195
40 Time: 4.54
Speed Score: 96.70

Burst Score (Rank): 121.20 (49%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.26 (49%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.11 (70%)

Adam Thielen's Weekly Outlook

Week 9 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.8 42.2 0.25 5.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3 29.5 0.2 4.1

Adam Thielen's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#102 Wide Receiver

90.7 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 38.3 381.4 2.38 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAdam Thielen's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Thielen had a career year last season, but that production decreased after HC Frank Reich was fired.

The production cliff is coming for Thielen, who is going into the season at 34 years old. With the Panthers’ additions to the WR room, Thielen is unlikely to see any consistent targets this season.

He is an end-of-the-roster flier who will need injuries to be relevant.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Thielen posted a season-long stat line of 103 catches for 1,014 yards ad four TDs on 137 targets.
  • His per-game averages were generally a massive upgrade over the average of the prior four years:
    • 8.06 targets (6.40)
    • 6.06 receptions (4.30)
    • 59.6 yards (50.33)
    • 0.24 TDs (0.66)
  • HC Frank Reich was fired 11 games into the season. Thielen’s per-game production decreased after Reich left the team:
    • 6.17 targets
    • 4.33 receptions
    • 47.67 yards
    • 0 TDs
  • He ranked as the WR18 in PPR fantasy points (229.0) and WR25 in points per game (13.5).
  • He missed no games due to injury for the second consecutive season.
  • He had three top-12 finishes. But he also had six WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Thielen had the 15th-highest target share in the league (26.0%)
  • Among 89 WRs with 45+ targets, Thielen ranked 33rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 48th in yards per route run (1.59.
  • Among those same 89 WRs, he was 79th in average targeted air yards (7.6) but 32nd in percentage of team air yards (26.35%).

What to Expect in 2024

  • Thielen will play under HC Dave Canales, who will be calling plays for the Panthers offense.
    • Canales was the OC for the Buccaneers last season.
    • Under Canales, the Buccaneers ranked 19th in the NFL with 568 passes.
  • The Panthers are expected to take a step forward this year after only winning two games last season. They are fourth in the NFC South and 31st in the league with a 5.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
  • The Panthers have the worst odds in the NFL to win the Super Bowl at +25000 at most sportsbooks.
  • Thielen enters his 10th season at 34 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Thielen’s career produces 70% of his peak value at age-34.
  • He’ll face much tougher target competition this year after the Panthers added WRs Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Diontae Johnson, WR BAL

2:47pm EDT 10/28/24

Diontae Johnson On The Move?

ESPN's Adam Schefter said on The Pat McAfee Show on Monday that he expects WR Diontae Johnson to get traded ahead of next Tuesday's deadline. It makes plenty of sense for the 1-7 Panthers to get something in return for Johnson, who is set to hit free agency this offseason. A new home would certainly mean an upgrade in QB play and general offensive environment for Johnson. But he'd also have a new offense to learn and very likely face tougher target competition. Consider Johnson a hold while we wait on a potential trade. His departure would free up targets for WRs Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, and Jalen Coker. But none is an exciting fantasy option considering the state of that offense.

View all Diontae Johnson Shark Bites »

Panthers WRs Diontae Johnson (rib) and Adam Thielen (hamstring) have been ruled out for Sunday's game vs. the Broncos. Johnson has been battling multiple injuries throughout the season. It's not the worst thing in the world that he's missing this game against stud CB Patrick Surtain with QB Bryce Young under center. We'll see if Johnson makes it back for Week 9. Thielen just returned to practice this week after coming off IR and isn't ready for game action yet. The Panthers will trot out Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, Jonathan Mingo, and David Moore as their top four WRs this weekend. They'll struggle to score points.

View all Diontae Johnson Shark Bites »

Panthers WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) has been designated to return from IR and will practice on Wednesday. He's been out since injuring his hamstring at the end of the first half of Week 3. Thielen was a full-time player before going down but totaled just 12 targets across his 2.5 games. We'll see how Carolina divvies up playing time between Thielen and rookie WR Xavier Legette behind lead WR Diontae Johnson, but Thielen won't be much of a fantasy option in this struggling passing game.

View all Adam Thielen Shark Bites »

Panthers WR Adam Thielen suffered a hamstring injury during the Panthers' win against the Raiders. The team is placing him on injured reserve, meaning Thielen will miss at least the next four games, eligible to return for Week 8's contest against the Denver Broncos.

View Full Story »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Adam Thielen, WR CAR
Dynasty MVP -2.7
Position Rank #120 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
79
90
114
Dynasty Write-up
Thielen stunned the fantasy community with a comeback season in 2023. But at 34 in August, he's not a guy we're betting on for sustained success -- or a repeat of 2023.
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