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The Texans selected Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud with the second pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Stroud racked up huge numbers as a two-year starter at Ohio State: 8,123 yards (9.8 YPA), 85 TDs, and only 12 INTs. Playing alongside elite talents like Garret Wilson, Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jaxon-Smith-Njigba certainly helped. Stroud still showed NFL ability, proving accurate in all areas of the field. But can he adjust to muddier pockets in the pros? And can he use his legs more often? Those answers will be vital in determining his dynasty fantasy value. For year one, though, Stroud’s unlikely to be more than a deep league spot starter. Houston’s currently rolling out Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and John Metchie at WR.
TE Irv Smith has agreed to a 1-year deal with the Bengals. The 50th overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft posted a promising 36-311-2 line as a rookie -- but then missed 3 games in 2020, the entire 2021 season with a torn meniscus in his knee and then half of this past year with a high-ankle sprain. Smith was an intriguing prospect coming out of Alabama: a catch-first TE who broke out for 710 yards and 7 TDs on 16.1 yards per catch as a junior. And this is about as strong a landing spot as we could have hoped for. The Bengals are looking to replace TE Hayden Hurst, who averaged 5.5 targets, 4.2 catches and 36 yards across 15 healthy games last season (including playoffs). He ranked 18th among TEs in PPR points per game and 16th in expected PPR points per game. That's a fair expectation level for Smith. Consider him a TE2 with spike-week potential in early best-ball drafts.
The Texans have agreed to a one-year deal with TE Dalton Schultz worth "up to $9 million," according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. It has to be a disappointing contract for a guy Dallas franchise-tagged just last offseason. But it sounds like about the same contract Mike Gesicki is getting from the Patriots. Schultz opened his career with two quiet seasons (13 total catches) in Dallas, before breaking out in 2020. He then averaged 4.1 receptions and 41.7 yards per game over the past three years. Bet on the Houston offense being worse than the Cowboys unit Schultz is leaving. But Houston's top three pass-catchers currently look like WR Robert Woods, WR Nico Collins, and WR John Metchie. So there's target-share opportunity. Of course, we'll also see who the new starting QB will be. The Texans figure to select that guy early in the NFL Draft. We're not excited about Schultz at his current TE12 best ball ADP. He could become more interesting, though, if he drops significantly below that.
QB C.J. Stroud measured in at 6’3, 214 pounds at the NFL Combine. With 10-inch hands (right on the mark for an NFL QB) and a throw velocity of 59 MPH (among the highest in this class), Stroud simply solidified his top-10 stock. He also showed impressive accuracy in the on-field drills. In fact, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah called Stroud’s performance “one of the best throwing sessions I’ve seen at the Combine.”
The Athletic's Jay Morrison writes that the Bengals cutting RB Joe Mixon "feels closer to a certainty than a mere possibility." The move would save Cincinnati $7.3 million against the 2023 salary cap. "The Bengals envisioned this scenario coming into play when they signed Mixon to a four-year, $48 million contract in 2020, and structured the deal so that they could get out of it two years early without much of a hit," Morrison adds. Mixon averaged just 58 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry last year. He ranked 47th among 51 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus' Elusive Rating and 27th in NFL Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt. Mixon was also accused of pointing a gun at a woman in downtown Cincinnati in January. We'll see if the Bengals send him packing before the start of free agency in mid-March. RB Samaje Perine is set to hit the open market then, leaving Chris Evans as Cincinnati's only other RB signed for 2023. Expect the Bengals to make a significant addition to the backfield -- via free agency or the draft -- if they do cut Mixon.
The Texans are expected to hire Bobby Slowik as their new OC, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Slowik will become the latest Kyle Shanahan disciple to take over an offense. The 35-year-old has spent the past 6 seasons under Shanahan in San Francisco, actually starting out as a defensive quality control coach before moving to the offensive side of the ball in 2019. He served as an offensive assistant for 2 seasons before being promoted to passing game specialist in 2021 and then passing game coordinator last year. Slowik also worked under HC Mike Shanahan in Washington from 2011 to 2013 and spent a few years in between NFL jobs as an analyst at Pro Football Focus. It appears to be a forward-thinking hire by the Texans, although Slowik doesn't have experience calling plays at any level. The Texans are fully expected to take a QB with the 2nd overall pick of this spring's draft.
The misdemeanor menacing charge against Bengals RB Joe Mixon was dismissed by a judge on Friday, at the request of the prosecution. But the prosecution reserves the right to re-file the case after additional investigation. The legal side of this story isn't over yet. And the NFL can discipline Mixon even if he isn't legally found guilty. That has Mixon's 2023 and dynasty value in limbo for now. We'll keep you updated on the situation.
Bengals RB Joe Mixon is being charged with "aggravated menacing" for an incident that allegedly occurred in downtown Cincinnati the day before the Divisional Round game against the Bills. Mixon is accused of pointing a gun at a woman and saying, "You should be popped in the face, I should shoot you, the police can't get me." NFL Network's Tom Pelissero spoke Thursday night with Mixon's agent, who claims the charge will be dropped on Friday. We'll keep you updated on the situation. Remember that Mixon entered the NFL with red flags after he was caught on camera punching a woman at a restaurant in 2014.
The Texans are hiring Demeco Ryans as HC, according to multiple reports. This has been assumed for at least a few days now, and it makes loads of sense for Houston. Ryans was a team leader across 6 years as MLB with the Texans, before finishing his playing career with 4 seasons in Philadelphia. He spent the past 6 years on San Francisco's coaching staff, including the past 2 as DC. Ryans piloted a 49ers defense that ranked 3rd and 1st in yards allowed the past 2 seasons; 9th and 1st in points allowed. He inherits a Texans roster that needs plenty of work. But Houston does hold 5 picks among the 1st 3 rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft, including the #2 and #12 overall selections. Expect the Texans to select their next QB in Round 1, with Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Will Levis all in the current early-Round 1 discussion. The 49ers defense, meanwhile, should be fine. San Francisco ranked 6th and 2nd in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA the 2 years before Ryans took the helm.
Bengals RB Joe Mixon rushed 20 times for 105 yards and 1 score in Sunday’s win over Buffalo. So much for Cincy’s banged up O-line. Playing with backups, Mixon posted his best YPC average since Week 14. The 100-yard outing also marked the most from a postseason Bengal since Cedric Benson in 2010. Next comes a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game, again in Kansas City.
Jags WR Christian Kirk snagged 7 balls for 52 yards and 1 score in the Divisional Round loss to Kansas City. He tied a season-high (and matched last week’s number) with 14 targets. He nearly cracked 100 yards in this one, but a well-thrown deep ball from Trevor Lawrence bounced off Kirk’s hands. The former Cardinal exited the regular season with 84-1,108-8 on 133 targets, enough to make him WR11 in PPR. He’ll enter year 2 in Jacksonville alongside newly acquired WR Calvin Ridley. We’ll see where their ADPs shake out in early drafting.
Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz roped in 7 of 8 targets for 95 yards and 2 TDs in Monday’s Wild Card victory vs. the Buccaneers. Teammate WR CeeDee Lamb also performed well, snagging 4 of 6 his targets for 68 yards and a score of his own. This pair made a tremendous difference in the outcome of this game and will look to continue this success against the 49ers next weekend in the Divisional Round. Though the 49ers’ defense ranks 7th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA this season, we did see Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf eclipse the century mark in receiving yards with 2 TDs on Saturday. Perhaps QB Dak Prescott and company could replicate that success in the next round.
Bengals RB Joe Mixon mustered only 39 yards on 11 carries in Sunday’s win over Baltimore. He’s now been held to only 1 TD over his past 6 outings. Mixon at least remained a key part of the passing game, racking up 3+ catches for the 14th time (in 15 games) this season. The Bengals now travel to Buffalo for the Divisional Round. The Bills have allowed 4.3 YPC to opposing RBs this season.
Texans WR John Metchie has a chance to re-join the team for the start of the offseason program in April, GM Nick Caserio said Wednesday. Metchie missed his entire 2022 rookie campaign after being diagnosed with acute promyeloctic leukemia in July. "I'd say there's a chance that he'll be ready for the start of the offseason program," Caserio said. "I think there are still some things that he has to complete or go through. Quite frankly, it's amazing what he's done to this point." It sounds like Metchie at least deserves to be rostered in dynasty leagues again. There's plenty of opportunity in Houston's WR corps heading into 2023, especially with WR Brandin Cooks likely to be playing elsewhere.
The Texans announced Sunday night that they are firing HC Lovie Smith. It's not a surprising move, as Houston just finished a 3-13-1 campaign. Smith seemed like an uninspired choice last offseason, being elevated from the DC position after 1 year of David Culley as HC. But he had little chance at success with a bad roster and weak QB situation. We'll see where Houston turns next, but it's tough to expect an especially attractive candidate to choose these Texans.
Vikings TE Irv Smith has been activated from IR, putting him on track to play vs. the Bears on Sunday. He's been out since going down with a significant high-ankle sprain in Week 8. Smith's return is a boost to Minnesota's passing game, but he's unlikely to be a big fantasy factor in the postseason behind TE T.J. Hockenson.
Texans RB Dare Ogunbowale (knee) is active for today’s game vs. the Jaguars. He should continue mixing in behind lead back Royce Freeman.
Vikings TE Irv Smith (ankle) has been designated to return from IR. He's been out since going down with a significant high-ankle sprain in Week 8. Minnesota, of course, swung a deal for TE T.J. Hockenson since then. Smith's return could be a slight boost to the Vikings passing game, but he won't be a fantasy factor in the regular season or playoffs, barring a Hockenson injury.
Bengals RB Joe Mixon rushed 16 times for 65 yards (4.1 per rush) in Saturday's win over the Patriots. He added 7 receptions for 43 yards among 9 targets (tied for 2nd on the team). The efficiency wasn't great, but it was nice to see Mixon clearly leading the backfield in both phases. He goes up against the Bills in Week 17.
The Texans have placed WR Nico Collins on IR for his foot injury, ending his season. That should continue the elevated role for WR Chris Moore, though he's questionable for Saturday's game against the Titans with a foot injury that limited his practice all week. WR Brandin Cooks (calf) is also questionable, despite putting in full practices Wednesday and Thursday.
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