Dalton Schultz - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Schultz staying with the Texans is good for the offense with his multifaceted ability as a blocker and receiver. He showed his fit in OC Bobby Slowik’s offense and was a safety valve for C.J. Stroud last year.

Unfortunately, the addition of more weapons like Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to the team likely means Schultz’s fantasy output will be even more TD-dependent this season due to a likely drop in target share.

He can still put up high-end TE2 numbers with increased scoring opportunities, but the volume is unlikely to be there for him to enter TE1 territory.

What We Learned Last Year

• Schultz’s per-game receiving statistics for the Texans in 2023 were in line with his 2022 season with the Cowboys:
  • 5.87 targets (down from 5.93)
  • 3.93 receptions (up from 3.80)
  • 42.3 yards (up from 38.5)
  • 10.8 yards per catch (up from 10.1)
  • 0.33 TDs per game (same at 0.33)
• Schultz ranked as the PPR TE10 in total fantasy points (152.5) and TE11 in points per game (10.2).
• He missed two games (Week 13 & 14) due to a hamstring injury.
• Schultz had six top-12 finishes. He also had six TE25 or worse finishes.
• His target share of 16.9% ranked 16th among TEs.
• Among 33 TEs with at least 40+ targets, Schultz ranked:
  • 11th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • Seventh in average target depth (8.2)
  • 12th in slot targets

What to Expect in 2024

• Schultz signed a three-year, $36 million contract to stay with the Texans with $23.5 million guaranteed. His $12 million per year ranks tenth among TEs.
• Schultz enters his second season under HC DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik.
• The Texans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They have the highest win total in the AFC South at 9.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They also have the eighth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600 on most sportsbooks, best in the division.
• Schultz enters his seventh season at 28 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average TE with Schultz’s career will produce at 87% of his peak value at age-28.
• He’ll face stiff target competition this year with WR Stefon Diggs joining WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell. All three guys ranked as top-20 WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grades last year.