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Week 12 Fantasy Football Running Back Preview
Top 50 Fantasy RBs for Week 12
Let's dig into the reasons you should -- or shouldn't -- play these guys ...
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Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
Kareem Hunt, Chiefs
Hunt jumped into our top 10 Friday when HC Andy Reid announced that RB Isiah Pacheco won't be ready to face Carolina. The Panthers arrive as the friendliest RB matchup in the league, including a league-high 14 RB rushing TDs and 16 total TDs allowed. Hunt dipped to just 14 touches last week but still ate 93.3% of Chiefs RB carries.
Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
Hubbard enters the weekend with a strong 19.1 touches per game. That’ll likely come down with Jonathon Brooks back on the field, but it’s unclear how much the rookie will play on Sunday. We’ve also scaled back our efficiency expectations for Hubbard, as the Chiefs have allowed only 3.2 YPC to RBs.
Jonathon Brooks, Panthers
Brooks (ACL tear) is set to make his NFL debut against Kansas City. Here’s what HC Dave Canales said on the rookie’s potential usage: "We'll have a game plan, for how to play (him), but we're not really looking for a specific number. ... When you get a guy ready to play on Sunday, the confidence should be that he can go out and just play a normal football game. And so that's what we want to make sure happens." A dozen touches would be a win for Brooks, especially with the way Chuba Hubbard has played. Ultimately, a brutal matchup with the Chiefs means you’re best off taking a wait-and-see approach.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Aaron Jones, Vikings
Jones was limited last week, playing only 53% of snaps. But another week should help him get past his rib injury. The Bears are susceptible to the ground game, with RBs averaging 4.9 yards per carry. They are also in the bottom 10 in rushing fantasy points given up to RBs. Jones is a borderline RB1 with the matchup and six teams on bye.
D’Andre Swift, Bears
Swift has scored in five of the past seven games. But, the Bears did increase Roschon Johnson's playing time and work shares last week under new OC Thomas Brown. The Vikings also provide a much harder matchup than Swift’s past few opponents. Swift’s talent gives him RB2 potential, but it's also a risky week.
Roschon Johnson, Bears
Johnson got more snaps, including multiple goal-line carries (one a TD). We'll see whether the new split continues beyond the first game under new OC Thomas Brown. This week holds a Vikings D that's second-toughest on RB scoring. Johnson might again see extra receiving work if the Bears fall behind. He carries mild volume upside from RB3 range.
Cam Akers, Vikings
Akers is the clear backup to Aaron Jones but has increased his snap count each of the last two weeks. Jones should be healthier, which could shift more playing time back in his direction.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Joe Mixon, Texans
Mixon's huge 20-109-3 rushing line last week gives him 100+ yards and at least 1 TD in six of eight games this season. He gets a solid Titans run defense this weekend that ranks eighth in DVOA and 11th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. But Mixon remains a strong volume bet, with his Texans 8-point home favorites.
Tony Pollard, Titans
Tyjae Spears is likely to miss Week 12 with his concussion, putting Pollard back in a workhorse role. He averaged 21.3 carries and 4.3 targets across three games without Spears earlier this season. That makes Pollard a volume-based RB2 play, despite the tough matchup against Houston's fourth-ranked RB defense.
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
Gibbs has seen David Montgomery close the receiving gap over the past four games, even trailing Montgomery 8-5 in receptions over that span. Gibbs has also seen just 1 fewer carry over that span, though, and still easily leads Montgomery in yardage efficiency: 6.0 yards per rush to 4.3; and 11.1 yards per catch to 9.8. He also still has the receptions edge (2.3 per game vs. 2.1). Both RBs should be strong plays the rest of the way, including this week against a mid-pack RB defense.
David Montgomery, Lions
Montgomery not only reached 15 carries for the second time in three games last week. He also trailed Jahmyr Gibbs by just one pass route. That marked the third time among the past four games that Montgomery ran that close to Gibbs in passing usage. He also tied Gibbs in Week 8 routes and even led him in Week 9. Montgomery has garnered 8 targets to Gibbs’ 7 over that span and leads him 8-5 in receptions.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts
Detroit hits this matchup ranked fifth in rush DVOA and third-toughest on RB scoring. That’s enough to knock Taylor out of the top 12 in our Week 12 rankings. But the six teams on bye hold five of the top 13 RBs in total fantasy points for the season. And the Lions haven’t been impenetrable. The past five games included three RBs rushing for 93+ yards, as well as rushing scores from three teams. It’ll help the whole Colts offense if Anthony Richardson again flashes the passing improvement he showed last week against the Jets.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane, Dolphins
Achane handled a 65% carry share last week vs. Vegas -- tied for his highest since Week 2. A stable rushing role -- plus an upside receiving role -- supplies RB1 appeal vs. New England. You can ignore Achane’s Week 5 dud at New England, as he left with a concussion.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
Stevenson’s reached 20 carries in three of his past four games. Those games include two wins and two losses with a combined margin of 9 points. New England heads south as 7.5-point underdogs, so there’s potential for negative game script. It’s not reason to abandon Stevenson as an RB2, though. He has averaged 3 catches per game in four games alongside Drake Maye.
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins
Mostert briefly left Week 11 with a hip injury. He’s on the injury report for Week 12 but practiced fully on Wednesday. A declining role leaves Mostert as a desperation FLEX.
Jaylen Wright, Dolphins
Wright’s carries have gone 5, 2, 6, 5, 5 since De’Von Achane returned from a concussion. The rookie has only 1 target over that stretch. While the New England matchup looks fine, Wright will remain a TD-or-bust fantasy play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
Rachaad White, Buccaneers
White has 4 receiving TDs over the past four games. Mike Evans' return could siphon targets away from the RBs overall. But the Giants bring the ninth-friendliest RB defense and head in as 6-point underdogs. It's a good spot for both Bucs RBs.
Tyrone Tracy, Giants
Tracy has had at least 100 total yards in four of his last six games. He continues to operate as the lead back ahead of Devin Singletary. His receiving volume could stand to improve, however, with just 6 targets and 4 receptions over the past three games. That keeps Tracy from ranking higher. The Bucs also remain decent against the run (11th in rush DVOA).
Bucky Irving, Buccaneers
Irving has led the backfield in rushing attempts each of the past three games. He has finished top-24 in four of the last five games. This is a perfect game for a breakout, with the Giants giving up the most yards per carry to RBs in the league. He's a RB2 with RB1 upside.
Devin Singletary, Giants
Singletary has fallen behind Tyrone Tracy, but the good match-up against a bottom-10 run defense in the Bucs could give him some opportunities. He is averaging six touches per game since returning from injury, and his receiving ability may be called upon at some point. High end RB4 this week.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders
Robinson saw his largest snap share last week since the fourth game of the season. It was his second straight 16-carry game (despite losing to Philly) and fifth time this season with 16+ rushes. Four of those came in victories. This week’s matchup finds Washington favored by 10.5, which should leave conditions ripe for Robinson rushing volume. Dallas also ranks just 27th in rush DVOA, boosting Robinson’s production upside.
Rico Dowdle, Cowboys
Dowdle might finally be officially in charge of Dallas’ backfield. But that still meant ranking just 21st in the league last week in opportunity share. The offensive struggles with Cooper Rush behind center figure to continue limiting Dowdle’s rushing volume and scoring opportunities. This week finds Dallas a 10.5-point underdog. Washington at least ranks just 29th in rush DVOA. So it could be a positive matchup for Dowdle’s efficiency.
Austin Ekeler, Commanders
Ekeler dipped to just 2 carries with Brian Robinson Jr. back last week. He did rack up team highs in targets (9), receptions (8), and receiving yards (89). But those numbers were well out of line with the rest of his season to date and appeared specific to the Philly matchup. Washington figures to have far less trouble with the Dallas D and thus shouldn’t need Ekeler targets as much – especially in a game that finds the Commanders favored by 10.5.
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
Despite their struggles, Elliott and the Cowboys apparently just can’t quit each other. His 3 receptions last week marked a season high. His 16 receiving yards matched his season high. Elliott’s 1 carry also marked a season low. Here’s hoping you don’t need him.
Jeremy McNichols, Commanders
McNichols played just 11 snaps last week against the Eagles, with Brian Robinson Jr. back. McNichols at least still managed 4 touches, matching his count from Week 10 (without Robinson).
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Javonte Williams, Broncos
Williams had the hot hand in Denver's backfield last week, ripping off a couple of nice runs on the opening series and winding up with a 9-59-1 rushing line. He's the best fantasy bet among Broncos RBs and gets a plus matchup against the Raiders' 30th-ranked RB defense this weekend. But the carries could easily swing back toward Audric Estime or even Jaleel McLaughlin. Consider Williams a high-risk, moderate-reward fantasy play.
Audric Estime, Broncos
This looks like a true "hot hand" situation in Denver's backfield. The problem for Estime is that he's been the third RB to see the field the past two games, giving Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin a chance to establish the hot hand first. There's upside to Estime against the Raiders' 30th-ranked RB defense this weekend. But we saw the floor last week (25 scoreless yards).
Ameer Abdullah, Raiders
With RBs Alexander Mattison and Zamir White unlikely to play this weekend, Vegas will be down to Abdullah, Dylan Laube, and Sincere McCormick in the backfield. Laube is a sixth-round rookie who fumbled on his only touch of the season; McCormick has been on the practice squad all year. That leaves Abdullah as the favorite to lead Raiders RBs in touches this weekend, although we're not at all confident in that projection. Plus, the matchup is tough against Denver's 14th-ranked RB defense.
Dylan Laube, Raiders
Injuries to RBs Alexander Mattison and Zamir White open the door for Laube to get some touches this weekend. But this is a sixth-round rookie who fumbled on his only touch of the season so far, so it's possible that the Raiders simply don't trust him. Plus, the matchup vs. Denver's 14th-ranked RB defense doesn't leave much room for upside.
Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos
It's a "hot hand" situation in Denver's backfield -- but McLaughlin feels like the least likely to get hot. He's finished with under 20 rushing yards in three straight games. And he hasn't seen a target in either of the last two.
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
We’ve yet to see a vintage performance from CMC, but note that he’s only two games into his 2024 season. There’s certainly no disappointment on the usage front. Last week, he played 93% of the snaps, leading to an 86% carry share and 83% route rate. Elite usage.
Josh Jacobs, Packers
Jacobs hits the weekend with 15+ touches in six straight. He draws a 49ers rush defense that’s underperformed this year, slotting 19th in rush defense DVOA; 27th in PFF rush defense grade.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
James Conner, Cardinals
Conner has been a consistent runner who is the go to in the red zone. The Cardinals should continue to work through the run game. The Seahawks have given up 5 yards per carry to opposing RBs but had solid games the last two weeks against Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams. With the volume, Conner is a solid RB1.
Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
Walker has 8 TDs this year after scoring again last week. He has found little rushing room but has been targeted often in the passing game to improve his fantasy performances. The Cardinals rush defense is pretty soft, ranking bottom-10 in fantasy points given up per game to RBs.
Trey Benson, Cardinals
Benson has been folded into the Cardinals' game plan, especially as a receiver. He won’t touch the ball a ton, but his athleticism gives big-play potential. He's a low-end RB3 with the byes this week if you need a swing-for-the-fences play.
Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks
Charbonnet has taken a backseat to Kenneth Walker this season, but still gets a few touches here and there. If Walker ever gets hurt in a game, Charbonnet would get heavy volume as a rusher and a receiver. He is an RB4 this week.
Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams
Saquon Barkley, Eagles
The Rams haven’t allowed a RB rushing TD since Week 5. But they also rank just 20th in rush DVOA, 18th in total defensive DVOA, and 22nd in scoring defense. So there’s nothing to worry about in this matchup for Barkley.
Kyren Williams, Rams
Williams hasn’t scored in the past three games. But there’s been no downturn in his usage. He has actually played a larger share of snaps over those three games (92%) than the first seven (86.1%) and seen a slight uptick in carry share (78.8% vs. 76.0%). So chalk the lack of TDs up primarily to bad luck. The healthy return of WR Puka Nacua is bound to continue helping the team’s passing TD total going forward, but it’ll also help overall offensive efficiency. And that means scoring opportunities for all.
Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles
Gainwell saw a dip in playing time in last week’s Washington matchup, which stayed competitive most of the way. But he still reached 5 touches for the fifth straight game. Expect a tighter game vs. the Rams and likely little field time for Gainwell.
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers
Derrick Henry, Ravens
In a relatively disappointing Week 11, Henry still managed to score his 15th TD of the season. That figure leads the league. Despite facing a strong Chargers run D, Henry remains an upside RB1.
J.K. Dobbins, Chargers
Dobbins draws a Ravens rush defense that’s allowed only 3.3 yards per carry. The former Raven has also watched Gus Edwards and Hassan Haskins take goal line opportunities in recent weeks. A likely dip in efficiency places Dobbins deep in RB2 territory.
Gus Edwards, Chargers
Here’s OC Greg Roman after Edwards’ Week 11 performance. “I thought he played well. He was Gus. I really felt like that was the best he’s looked since he’s been back this year… Gus is back. The bus is back.” It’s nice to know he’s in good standing with the coaching staff. Ultimately, though, Edwards has tallied 10 and 6 carries in two games back from injury. He remains TD-dependent.
Got Other Start-Sit Questions?
Matt and Jared run through some of the bigger Week 12 lineup questions in this preview show ...