Javonte Williams - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Williams sports a wide range of outcomes in 2024.

If he can bounce back from an underwhelming 2023 season that might have been impacted by a serious 2022 knee injury, he should maintain lead duties in a Sean Payton-led offense that’s consistently produced strong fantasy scorers at RB.

But if Williams remains inefficient, he could find himself in a two or even three-RB committee and be tough to trust as a weekly fantasy starter.

He’s worth gambling on at RB3-level prices. Any more expensive than that and he becomes a risky pick.

What We Learned Last Year

• Williams ran for 774 yards and three TDs across 16 games last year, adding 47 catches for 228 yards and two TDs.
• He suffered a hip injury early in Week 4 and missed Week 5.
• Williams’ scoring averages in 15 healthy games ranked:
  • 31st among RBs in PPR points
  • 33rd in half-PPR
  • 35th in non-PRR
• Williams’ playing time, volume, and production climbed from Week 7 on. Over that stretch, he averaged 15.4 carries and 3.9 targets per game and scored as the:
  • RB18 in PPR points
  • RB23 in non-PPR
• Williams was one of the least effective runners in the NFL last year. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:
  • 41st in yards per carry
  • 42nd in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • 36th in yards after contact per attempt
  • 38th in Pro Football Focus Elusive Rating
  • 45th in PFF rushing grade
• He was better as a receiver. Although he averaged just 4.9 yards per catch, Williams caught 81% of his 58 targets and ranked 10th among 43 qualifying RBs in yards per route.
• It’s certainly worth considering that Williams was returning last year from a nasty injury. He tore the ACL, LCL, and posterior lateral corner in his right knee on October 2, 2022. Williams was cleared for the start of training camp last summer, but it’s fair to wonder if the knee was still a factor throughout the season.
• Williams was more effective in a healthy 2021 rookie season. Among 52 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:
  • 19th in yards per carry
  • 21st in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • 7th in yards after contact per attempt
  • 5th in Pro Football Focus Elusive Rating
  • 21st in PFF rushing grade

What to Expect in 2024

• Williams will likely need to be better – at least returning to his rookie-year form – in order to match last year’s volume.
• HC Sean Payton has a long history of deploying two- and even three-RB committees. The Broncos return RBs Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine and added rookie RBs Audric Estime and Blake Watson.
• That said, Payton’s offense has been good for RB fantasy production.
  • His lead back has topped 15.5 touches per game in 13 of 16 seasons, averaging 17.3 touches per game.
  • Payton produced a top-22 RB in PPR points per game in each of his first 15 seasons.
  • Although that streak was snapped last year (Williams finished 34th in PPR points per game), the Broncos as a team ranked sixth in total RB PPR points. That was largely fueled by 131 RB catches – 15 more than any other team.
• The 2023 Broncos ranked:
  • 9th in run rate
  • 18th in carries
  • 21st in RB carries
  • 1st in RB catches
• With rookie QB Bo Nix likely under center and an underwhelming group of WRs and TEs, the Broncos figure to remain a run-leaning offense in 2024. And the RBs should again be heavily involved in the passing game.
• The 2023 Broncos ranked:
  • 4th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade
  • 14th in Adjusted Lined Yards
• They return four of five starters on the offensive line this year, with C Lloyd Cushenberry departing for Tennessee in free agency. He ranked 13th among 32 qualifying Cs in PFF’s 2023 run-blocking grades. It’s unclear who will replace Cushenberry, but this still projects to be an above-average O-line in 2024.