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Week 10 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Stacks

Brock Purdy ($6,500) + Christian McCaffrey ($8,000) + George Kittle ($5,800)

Purdy has remained super efficient as a passer so far this season, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. His TD rate, however, is way down from the past two seasons:

• 2022: 7.6%
• 2023: 7.0%
• 2024: 4.1%

He’s unlikely to get back to that 7% range the rest of the way, but I do expect some positive regression in the TD department.

Purdy has also added rushing to his repertoire. He’s averaging 26.3 rushing yards per game – 12th most among QBs … and more than Josh Allen!

Add it all up and I expect to see some big fantasy outings from Purdy over the second half of the season. That could start this week in a matchup against the Bucs’ 31st-ranked QB defense. The 49ers are implied for a slate-high 28.5 points.

The return of RB Christian McCaffrey only helps Purdy’s case. And using CMC is a way to get different on Purdy stacks. He’s projected for just 11% ownership vs. Deebo Samuel at 26%.

(I love Samuel the rest of the way, but I think he’s a fade this week at that ownership with the rib and oblique injuries he’s dealing with.)

McCaffrey, of course, projects to do a lot of damage in the passing game, so he correlates nicely with his QB.

Purdy tallied 300+ passing yards and/or 3+ TDs in eight games last season. McCaffey scored 23+ DraftKings points in five of them, including four games of 28+.

Kittle is one of the best plays on this slate and belongs in Purdy stacks. He’s already topped 20 DK points four times this season and gets the league’s 28th-ranked TE defense this weekend.

Also consider:

• Sam Darnold ($6,200) + Justin Jefferson ($8,800) + Jordan Addison ($5,300)
• Mac Jones ($4,400) + Parker Washington ($3,900) + Evan Engram ($5,300)

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley, Eagles ($8,300)

It looks like having Alvin Kamara priced $200 cheaper will get us Barkley at a big ownership discount this week. We currently project him to be on just 9% of rosters.

No RB has had more tournament-winning performances this season. Barkley already has outings of 36.9, 36.6, 36.2, and 29.7 DraftKings points. Kamara, by comparison, has two games north of 30 DK points. Bijan Robinson (who I really like this week) has none.

Barkley is in a smash spot on Sunday with his Eagles 7-point favorites against the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys. Dallas has been one of the league’s worst run defenses all season, ranking:

• 29th in run defense DVOA
• 31st in Pro Football Focus run defense grade
• 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs

Paying up for Barkley will be a priority for me when building tournament teams this week.

D’Andre Swift, Bears ($6,500)

Swift is coming off an underwhelming 14.2-point outing against an underrated Cardinals run defense. That snapped a streak of four straight games with 20+ DK points.

I like his chances of getting back to 20 this weekend. Swift’s Bears are 6.5-point home favorites for the Patriots. New England hasn’t been good against the run or the pass this season. But with QB Caleb Williams struggling, I expect Chicago to lean on the ground game in this one.

The Patriots rank 28th in run defense DVOA and 25th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Also consider:

• Alvin Kamara, Saints ($8,100)
• Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($8,000)
• Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($7,700)
• Aaron Jones, Vikings ($6,700)
• Kareem Hunt, Chiefs ($6,600)
• Austin Ekeler, Commanders ($5,800)

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson, Jets ($7,200)

Wilson has topped 27 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. 

While only one of those has come alongside Davante Adams, the veteran’s arrival has boosted Wilson’s weekly ceiling. He’s running more downfield routes, resulting in his average target depth climbing from 8.4 yards over the first six weeks of the season to 12.3 yards over the last three.

And he’s maintained a big 27.3% target share in three games with Adams.

In a plus matchup on Sunday against the Cardinals’ 20th-ranked WR defense, Wilson is simply too cheap for the upside he possesses.

Adonai Mitchell, Colts ($3,400)

I’ll be paying up at RB – and potentially TE – this week. So I’ll need at least one cheap WR on most teams. And I’m willing to roll the dice on Mitchell. 

There are cheap WRs with higher floors. But I don’t think any have higher ceilings. (And that’s what we care about in tournaments.)

WR Michael Pittman’s absence this weekend should mean a big jump in playing time for Mitchell. I say ‘should’ because there’s a chance that the Colts give more of Pittman’s work to WR Ashton Dulin.

But Mitchell is clearly the better option. The rookie has, by the numbers, been one of the best separators in the NFL this season. His 83 ESPN Open Score is fourth highest behind only Malik Nabers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews. He leads all players with 50+ routes in Fantasy Points’ Average Separation Score.

As a result, Mitchell has been targeted on 32% of his routes this season. That ranks behind only Cooper Kupp and Rashee Rice – and just ahead of Malik Nabers and Puka Nacua.

Mitchell’s matchup this week is admittedly brutal. The Bills rank fifth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and are particularly tough on the outside, where Mitchell projects to run most of his routes.

But I think Mitchell is talented enough to deliver what we need at his very cheap price.

Also consider:

• Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($8,800)
• Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($6,900)
• Josh Downs, Colts ($6,200)
• Khalil Shakir, Bills ($6,000)
• DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs ($5,300)
• Jordan Addison, Vikings ($5,300)
• Rome Odunze, Bears ($5,200)
• Jauan Jennings, 49ers ($5,100)
• Ricky Pearsall, 49ers ($4,400)
• Parker Washington, Jaguars ($3,900)

Tight Ends

Five of the top 10 best Flex values on this slate according to our projections are TEs:

Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($6,000)

George Kittle, 49ers ($5,800)

Cade Otton, Buccaneers ($5,500)

Taysom Hill, Saints ($4,000)

Hunter Henry, Patriots ($3,900)

It is very viable to use a TE in the Flex spot this week.

Kittle is my favorite play at the position.

His 18.5 DraftKings points per game are five more than any other TE on the slate. They’d also rank sixth among WRs. But Kittle’s $5,800 salary would rank 22nd among WRs.

He’s already topped 20 DK points in four games this season and could do it again on Sundat. The 49ers’ 28.5-point implied total is easily the highest on the main slate. And they get a Bucs defense that ranks 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. Tampa has coughed up the following lines to TEs:

• 7-62-0 (Dallas Goedert)
• 7-88-0 (Kyle Pitts)
• 4-41-2 (Mark Andrews)
• 4-91-2 (Pitts)
• 14-100-0 (Travis Kelce)

Defense/Special Teams

• Chargers ($3,800)
• Vikings ($3,700)
• Bills ($3,200)
• Bears ($3,000)
• Steelers ($3,000)
• Jets ($2,900)
• Patriots ($2,500)
• Broncos ($2,400)

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.