Saquon Barkley - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Barkley’s rollercoaster career with the Giants is over. Looking ahead, 2024 easily supplies the best offensive environment of his career.

At 27, Barkley’s on the outskirts of his prime. But if he can hold up physically, there’s little standing in the way of a top-10 fantasy season. He’s in play once you reach Round 2 of fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Barkley totaled 288 touches, despite missing three games with an ankle sprain.
  • Only seven RBs saw more touches.
  • Barkley also sustained a hyperextended elbow, although it didn’t cost him a game.
• He lost QB Daniel Jones to an ACL tear in November and ran behind a bottom-three O-line.
  • The Giants' offense ranked 29th in total yards per game; 30th in points.
• Among 23 RBs with 200+ carries, Barkley ranked 23rd in EPA per rush, 18th in yards per carry, 10th in yards after contact per attempt, 16th in success rate, and 13th in explosive rush rate.
• As a pass catcher, Barkley set carer lows in yards after catch per reception (6.0) and yards per route run (0.92).
  • He tied a career low with 41 catches.
• Boosted by four receiving TDs, Barkley ultimately finished as a top-15 fantasy RB eight times.
  • He ranked outside the top-30 five times.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Eagles moved on from D’Andre Swift after one season.
  • Swift’s absence removes 229 carries and 49 targets (16 games).
  • GM Howie Roseman made a splash by signing Barkley to a three-year deal with $26 million guaranteed. It’s the most guaranteed money given to a RB.
• Philly returns Kenneth Gainwell and added Round 4 RB Will Shipley.
  • Gainwell’s career-high in touches is only 114.
  • Shipley brings strong college production and difference-making ability on third downs. But for 2024, he’s a major longshot to affect Barkley’s role.
• The Eagles’ O-line still projects as a top-5 unit, but they’re in a major transition with the retirement of C Jason Kelce.
• Philly hired former Cowboys and Chargers OC Kellen Moore.
  • As an OC, his units have ranked 6th, 17th, 1st, 4th, and 21st in points; 8th, 15th, 12th, 6th and 24 in rush attempts.
  • Moore was highly complimentary of Barkley this offseason, saying “We’ve got to try to utilize him as much as we can while understanding it’s a long season for running backs.”
• Barkley doesn't pair well with a clear-cut handcuff. Gainwell will battle Shipley for the No. 2 role.