George Kittle - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Kittle turns 31 in October but has shown no signs of decline. He led all TEs in yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year, finishing seventh at the position in PPR points per game.

He returns to a very similar situation this season with HC Kyle Shanahan and QB Brock Purdy.

Kittle will never be the most consistent week-to-week producer, which makes him more valuable in best-ball leagues. But he’s a good bet for another top-eight fantasy finish this season.

What We Learned Last Year

• Kittle ranked sixth among TEs in total PPR points and seventh in PPR points per game last year.
• He played each of San Francisco’s first 16 games, only sitting out a meaningless regular-season finale.
• Kittle was a volatile weekly producer.
  • He finished as a top-5 PPR TE in seven weeks. Only Sam LaPorta had more top-5 weeks.
  • But Kittle ranked outside the top 20 seven times.
  • He finished TE8 in his other two games.
• Kittle’s ranks among TEs:
  • 9th in targets
  • 10th in catches
  • 1st in yards
  • Tied for 2nd in TDs
• Kittle averaged a career-high 15.7 yards per catch. That led all 45 qualifying TEs – a full two yards ahead of the No. 2 TE (Isaiah Likely).
• Kittle’s 9.9-yard average target depth ranked second among those 45 TEs.
• He tied for fourth with 7.3 yards after the catch per reception.
• Kittle led all 45 qualifying TEs with 2.22 yards per route run.
• He also led that group in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

What to Expect in 2024

• Kittle revealed after the season that he suffered a core-muscle injury in Week 9 or 10. He underwent surgery but expects to be ready for the start of training camp.
• Durability is the biggest concern here.
  • Kittle missed 15 games over the four seasons prior to last year with two knee injuries, a foot fracture, a calf injury, and a groin injury.
  • Our Injury Predictor gives him an 80.6% chance of injury and 2.0 projected games missed this season.
• Kittle will turn 31 in October. Our aging-curve data says to expect 80-85% of peak production from a 31-year-old TE – down just slightly from age-30.
• Kittle has shown no signs of decline. On top of leading his position in yards per route and PFF receiving grade last year, Kittle also averaged a career-best 11.3 yards per target.
• Kittle returns to a very similar situation this year.
  • Kyle Shanahan is back for his eighth season as 49ers HC.
  • QB Brock Purdy returns for year 3 and his second as full-time starter.
  • WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk, and RB Christian McCaffrey also return.
  • The biggest change to San Francisco’s offense is the addition of first-round rookie WR Ricky Pearsall. Don’t expect him to significantly impact Kittle’s volume or production.
• Like the rest of San Francisco’s passing game, Kittle is likely in for some regression this season. Purdy averaged an absurd 9.6 yards per pass attempt with a 7.0% TD rate last year.
• But Kittle remains a strong bet for high-end fantasy production. His ranks in PPR points per game the last six seasons:
  • 2018 - 3rd
  • 2019 - 2nd
  • 2020 - 3rd
  • 2021 - 3rd
  • 2022 - 2nd
  • 2023 - 7th