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Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 6

How Will Injuries and Byes Shape Weeks Ahead?

Jacksonville's off to a funny start ... unless you're a Jaguars fan.

This team has somehow gone from 2022 playoff darling to last year's electric start but brutal collapse. And now nearly inept.

Did Week 5 start the Jags' turnaround? Or was it a blip?

I'm leading off with that team because it'll factor into this week's selections on both sides of the ball ...

Week 6 Buys

• Tyreek Hill
• Jaylen Warren
• Diontae Johnson

Week 6 Sells

• Rico Dowdle
• Christian Kirk
• Michael Pittman Jr.

Week 6 Holds

• D’Andre Swift
• Darnell Mooney

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Fantasy Trade Targets (Buy)

These guys promise upside for the coming weeks.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

The Hill manager in your league has been holding on this long. Aren’t they probably just waiting out that Tua Tagovailoa return at this point?

Maybe.

But here’s the thing: We don’t know for sure when the QB will return … or even if he definitely will.

We do know that he’s not eligible to return until at least Week 8, after this week’s bye and then the fourth game since he landed on IR. And we know that anyone who drafted Hill, Jaylen Waddle, or De’Von Achane hasn’t gotten the expected return to date.

Time to Strike

Tagovailoa will reportedly get an “expert consultation” this week on his injury and expected return. That could mean we’ll hear as soon as this weekend that he’s on track for a Week 8 return.

If that Hill (or Waddle) manager in your league gets to Sunday and then learns there’ll be just one more weekend before the QB returns, then that person’s gonna be far more likely to stick it out.

Right now? That manager just might be desperate. Even a relative rebound for Hill in Week 5 found him just 31st among PPR scorers at WR. And that was 4.3 points better than Waddle’s best outing since the opener.

The closer we get to a potential Week 8 return, the closer we also get to a positive run of matchups:

• Cardinals (29th in pass DVOA)
• Bills (10th)
• Rams (31st)
• Raiders (26th)

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris has scored 4.0 PPR points per game under expected so far. That’s the largest gap for any RB to this point.

Normally, we’d look at that and say Harris is due for positive regression. And sure, he’s probably not gonna finish the season with zero TDs. But he has never been a highly efficient runner, and he’s faring even worse in that area in 2024.

Harris is currently:

• At a career low in yards after contact per carry
• Sixth-worst among qualifiers in rush yards over expected per attempt
• Down for the second straight year in missed tackles forced per carry

The O-line has been a problem. Pittsburgh ranks 30th in yards before contact per carry (1.7). But that problem as already there: 32nd in 2023 (2.0).

Solution Returning from Injury?

Warren simply looks better equipped to deliver, especially behind a saggy O-line.

He ranked third-best in the league in RYOE per attempt last season. Warren handily beat Harris in YAC per carry and MTF per carry in both 2023 and 2022 (as a rookie). And he passed the veteran as the team’s leading backfield receiver in just his second pro season.

A hamstring injury cost him the past two games, is expected to keep Warren out this week (though he practiced Wednesday), and adds risk to him going forward.

But it also dramatically lowers his market cost.

See if you can add the Pittsburgh RB on the cheap now. The payoff could be strong over the second half of the season.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Carolina Panthers

This, of course, assumes you don’t already have our Comeback Player of the Year. And if you don’t, then you might think you already missed your chance to buy him before the Andy Dalton-fueled breakout.

But there’s still upside.

Johnson sits just 35th among WRs in PPR points per game. He’s fourth in expected points per game. That’s the third-largest per-game gap at the position.

Johnson sits tied for fifth among WRs in targets but just tied for 19th in receptions and 31st in receiving yards.

He’s not likely to maximize efficiency with Dalton. But he does get top-10 matchups for WR scoring the next two games: Atlanta and Washington.

WR Adam Thielen remains on IR through at least those two contests. And rookie WR Xavier Legette suffered a shoulder injury Sunday. (Though he did practice Wednesday.)

Expect plenty more targets for Johnson. And see if you can acquire him affordably off last week’s disappointing performance (against a tough Chicago defense).

Recent Buys

Let's look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we'd treat those players now ...

• Anyone who held Wilson into last weekend sure ain't giving him up at a reasonable price after that 13-101-1 line on 22(!) targets vs. Minnesota.
• Aiyuk rebounded in a big way vs. Arizona: 8 receptions, 147 yards. We're still buying if his manager is looking to sell, but that person's far less likely to be panicking right now. The Thursday night timing this week also shrinks the window.
• Sutton didn't get much out of it (2-32 receiving on 5 targets), but QB Bo Nix had a solid outing in last week's win over the Raiders: 19-of-27 passing, 206 yards, 2 TDs. Sutton's 5 targets did at least rank second on the team. As long as Nix continues to develop, his lead wideout will start to benefit.
• Jacobs enjoyed his best fantasy outing of the season so far in last week's win over the Rams. We'll see if his mere 3.8 yards per rush against a soft D or his 1 target become issues. But there's plenty to like now that QB Jordan Love's back.
• Evans has delivered two big outings since we listed him as a Week 4 buy. He's closer to a sell than a buy after that correction, with tougher matchups ahead. But holding him is just fine, especially if you're not overloaded at WR.
• Robinson played through a knee issue for more limited snaps than usual in Week 5. But he scored twice in the NFL's newest juggernaut offense.

Fantasy Sells

Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys

I have to admit something to you … I didn’t even realize Dowdle delivered the third-best fantasy score among RBs for Week 5 until someone asked me during a Tuesday radio spot if he’s a sell-high.

YES.

Dowdle racked up 20 carries in the win over Pittsburgh. But his playing time rose only slightly vs. the first four weeks:

• Week 1: 44%
• Week 2: 43%
• Week 3: 46%
• Week 4: 45%
• Week 5: 50%

And Ezekiel Elliott’s snap share (30%) also rebounded vs. the previous two games (19% and 18%).

More importantly, Dowdle’s scoring improvement the past two weeks relied heavily on TD receptions in each game.

We love receiving value in RBs, but Dowdle totaled just 3 targets over those two contests. 

Even with a pair of 5-target games before that, he’s tied for just 22nd among RBs in total targets through five weeks – with Miles Sanders.

Dowdle remains a limited player in a timeshare backfield – and just 33rd among RBs in PPR points per game for the year.

If you can sell his two-week point surge for meaningful value right now, do it.

Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Kirk heads into Week 6 off three straight games of 12.8+ PPR points. That makes this a good time to shop him before reality gets in the way.

QB Trevor Lawrence is coming off his best game of the season so far. But that also came in easily his best matchup to date. The Colts rank just 24th in pass-defense DVOA and seventh-easiest on QB scoring. And they were missing injured starters.

Jacksonville’s pass offense, meanwhile, sits just 19th in DVOA and 20th in yards.

On top of that, Kirk already trails rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. in:

• Targets
• Receptions
• Yards
• TDs
• Success rate
• Catch rate
• Yards per route

Kirk has seen just 21% of Lawrence’s targets so far even with TE Evan Engram out since Week 2.

Engram’s return will lower Kirk’s weekly floor, while Thomas’ quick emergence lowers the full-season ceiling.

Time to sell … especially ahead of a tough Week 6 matchup with Chicago.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts

Pittman enjoyed an encouraging Week 4, racking up a 6-113 receiving line on a season-high 9 targets in the win over the Steelers. But four of those catches came with Joe Flacco.

Pittman followed with a TD amid a 5-37 line that looked a lot more like his first three games.

Even with those WR20 and WR23 PPR finishes the past two weeks, Pittman sits just WR52 in PPR points per game for the season.

The impending return of QB Anthony Richardson threatens both the overall passing volume and completion rate.

Try to sell those consecutive positive outings to a WR-needy squad in your league. Targeting the manager who has Richardson might be a good place to start.

Recent Sells

Let's look back at our Sell recommendations from last two weeks and how we'd treat those players now ...

• Conner delivered a nice 100 total yards in the surprising win over the 49ers. That can only help his market value. He did better on pass routes last week as well. But the issues cited ahead of Week 5 remain.
• Ford had his second-worst fantasy outing of the year in Week 5. So if you didn't succeed in shopping him last week, it'll only get harder. The garbage Cleveland offense and approaching return of Nick Chubb still make it worth the effort, though.
• I didn't know at the time of this article last week that Shakir was on track to miss Sunday's game with an ankle sprain. You'll probably have to wait until he gets another game in to squeeze any value out of him in trade.
• Like I said last week, I'm done telling people to sell Williams.
• Metcalf is closer to a buy after Seattle's offense tanked in a loss to the Giants. I still want to have pieces of that group.
• Week 5 was Etienne's worst yet, including Tank Bigsby delivering the top RB score. Hope you were able to sell Etienne earlier. If not, you probably need to hold right now. I don't believe Bigsby is taking over as the RB1. They'll continue sharing time.

Fantasy Holds

D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears

Jared and I don’t totally agree on where Swift belongs this week. So I’m happy to present both cases and let you decide …

Sell Now?

Jared wants to sell Swift now, and I get it: The RB’s 47 receiving yards, 23 touches, and TD last week masked a sluggish 3.5 yards per rush against a weak Panthers run D.

Swift is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry for the season. He’s fourth-worst among qualifiers in rush yards over expected per attempt and running behind a line that ranks just 24th in yards before contact per carry.

This week brings a positive matchup with Jacksonville, which ranks third-weakest in our adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. But a lot of that comes from 6 TDs allowed to the position. The Jags actually sit a solid 12th in run-defense DVOA.

If Swift stinks in Week 6, suddenly you might be sitting on a burst bubble with a Week 7 bye further devaluing the RB.

Sell Later?

I realize the Jacksonville matchup could go either way for Swift, who has benefited from TDs and matchups the past two weeks.

But he has also seen workhorse usage, with 23 opportunities in two straight wins. He carried the offense (165 of the team’s 264 yards) in the Week 4 defeat of the Rams but then saw the Bears rally for a season-high 424 total yards against Carolina.

Strongly positive matchups with Jacksonville (32nd in total defensive DVOA) and Washington (24th) the next two games make me want to hold Swift through that stretch. Then I’ll look into selling him sometime before Week 12 begins five-game stretch that includes both meetings with Minnesota and Detroit.

Feel free to choose your path.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons

I would definitely bet that Mooney won’t finish the season as the No. 15 WR in PPR scoring. But I’d also bet that basically no one outside the Mooney family believes he’ll continue scoring at his current rate.

The wideout has scored only slightly above expectation so far, but that Week 5 production threw everything out of whack.

The Thursday night win over Tampa Bay included:

• 42% of Mooney’s PPR points to date
• 40% of his targets
• 37.5% of his receptions
• 32% of his yardage
• 67% of his TDs

We all know he’s coming down from that. But Atlanta’s passing performance in that game also told us that things will likely go better than rest of the way than they did over the first four games.

So you can sell Mooney if you have someone buying him like he’s an every-week WR2. But don’t treat him like an asset whose market value is about to crash.

Recent Holds

Let's see where Holds from the past two weeks stand.

• Andrews might seem like he had a semi-bounce back last week. But he ran a route on just 49% of Lamar Jackson's dropbacks, trailing Isaiah Likely in that category. There's bound to be an actually good game or two at some point. But there's no reason to buy Andrews -- or cling to him if someone else views him as a buy-low.
• Brown got lucky with a TD against the Ravens. It's pretty clear, though, that the Bengals trust Zack Moss much more in the passing game. That'll keep Brown's ceiling down and make him more game-script dependent. He is sellable if you find someone believing Cincinnati wants to turn Brown into the lead RB.
• Same deal as last week for me on Cook: I understand the hold case. But I'd also look for opportunities to sell for a strong return.
• Every passing week makes it more possible that Shaheed will just finish this season as New Orleans' top-scoring fantasy WR.

How Should You Attack These Trade Targets?

The Trade Navigator will help you find what you want ... and the league mates who need what you got. And then it'll help you build that season-changing trade package.

Check out this short video to learn more ...

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.