Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

We’re not overthinking this one.

Hill’s finished as the overall WR2 in back-to-back seasons. He was on pace for a historic season before a Week 14 ankle injury.

Now healthy, the third-year Dolphin shouldn't last beyond mid-Round 1 of summer drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• In year eight, Hill posted his most productive season.
  • In 16 games, the former Chief ranked second league-wide in targets and catches.
  • Hill led all WRs in targets per route run.
  • He slotted first in receiving yards and TDs.
  • In fact, he set a career-high in receiving yards (1,799) – seventh most in NFL history.
  • He matched a career-high in targets (167). Only CeeDee Lamb saw more targets inside the ten yard-line.
• Hill was remarkably consistent.
  • He finished as a top-five fantasy WR nine times.
  • His worst finish: WR38
• Hill missed one game with a Week 14 ankle sprain. He played through it upon returning.
• A healthy Tua Tagovailoa helped Hill hit his ceiling.
  • Tua played all 17 games.
  • The duo clicked on deep balls. Hill caught an excellent 57.9% of his deep targets – and that includes 3 drops.

What to Expect in 2024

• Hill enters the fall at 30 years old.
  • Our research with WR aging curves doesn’t turn up any cause for concern.
  • Note: Among RBs/WRs, Hill recorded the third fasted on-field time last year – 22.02 MPH. In fact, he held three spots in the top ten, per Next Gen Stats.
• He returns as the clear WR1 ahead of Jaylen Waddle and a host of secondary targets.
  • Miami added Odell Beckham in free agency. At this stage of his career, he’s no more than a decent third option.
  • The Fins added two late-round WRs – Malik Washington and Tahj Washington.
• The Fins return Tagovailoa and HC Mike McDaniel. Hill and that duo now enter a third year together.
• That continuity is huge for a guy who leads all WRs in cumulative fantasy points over the past two seasons.