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Michael Pittman Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMichael Pittman Jr.'s Basic Stats

Michael Pittman Jr.
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 4
Age: 27.0
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 223
40 Time: 4.52
Speed Score: 111.20

SPARQx (Rank): 112.10 (75%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.60 (56%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.10 (68%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.25 (89%)

Michael Pittman Jr.'s Weekly Outlook

Week 9 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.1 58 0.31 7.6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.8 55.3 0.3 7.5

Michael Pittman Jr.'s 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#33 Wide Receiver

207.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 82.6 928.4 5.36 1 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMichael Pittman Jr.'s Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Pittman is coming off his best season ever as the primary target for Gardner Minshew last season. He was more productive with Minshew than Anthony Richardson, so there are some red flags for Pittman.

The Colts also added an additional weapon in Adonai Mitchell, so Pittman’s target share is unlikely to continue as one of the highest in the NFL.

He clearly is talented and fairly consistent, but he is being overdrafted as a potential low-end WR1. A consistent low-end WR2 season is more realistic.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Pittman’s per-game averages were the best of his four-year career:
    • 7.85 targets
    • 6.81 receptions
    • 72.0 yards
    • 10.6 yards per catch
    • 0.25 TDs
  • His per-game production improved when Gardner Minshew took over for the injured Anthony Richardson
    • 10.00 targets
    • 7.09 receptions
    • 77.73 yards
    • 10.96 yards per catch
    • 0.27 TDs
  • Pittman ranked as the PPR WR14 in total fantasy points (248.2) and WR18 in points per game (15.5).
  • He missed one game last year (Week 15) with a concussion. It is the first game Pittman has missed since his rookie year (2020).
  • He had three top-12 finishes. He also had six WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Pittman’s 30.3% target share was the fourth highest in the NFL.
  • Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked:
    • 22nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
    • 23rd in yards per route run (2.04)
    • 80th in average target depth (8.1)
  • Among those same 92 WRs, Pittman was 31st in average separation yards (2.9), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Pittman enters his second season with the Colts under HC and play-caller Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter.
  • The Colts are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They also are 20th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +6000 on most sportsbooks, third highest in the division.
  • Pittman enters his fifth season at 26 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Pittman’s career and profile will produce at 96% of his peak value at age-26.
  • The Colts spent a Round 2 pick this spring on WR Adonai Mitchell and will hopefully get a healthier 2024 season from second-year WR Josh Downs. We’re projecting Pittman’s target share to decline this season, although we still project him to finish as a top-15 WR in targets.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Josh Downs, WR IND

11:34am EDT 10/20/24

All 3 Colts WRs Active For Week 7

Colts WRs Josh Downs (toe), Michael Pittman (back), and Alec Pierce (shoulder) are active for today’s game vs. the Dolphins. We’re expecting them to play their usual roles as the team’s top three WRs. But their projections take significant hits with QB Anthony Richardson back at the helm. See where the Colts land in the Week 7 WR Rankings.

View all Josh Downs Shark Bites »

Colts WRs Josh Downs (toe), Michael Pittman (back), and Alec Pierce (shoulder) are all expected to play vs. the Dolphins today, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. All three guys are listed as questionable. With Anthony Richardson back under center, no Colt WR sits inside the top 40 of the Week 7 WR Rankings.

View all Michael Pittman Jr. Shark Bites »

Colts WRs Josh Downs (toe), Michael Pittman (back), and Alec Pierce (shoulder) are questionable for this weekend's game against the Dolphins. Downs played through his toe issue last week and got in limited practices on Thursday and Friday. He should be fine. Pittman was a full-go on Thursday but did not practice on Wednesday or Friday. His status is a bit murkier, but we're projecting him to play. Pierce should also be available after putting in a full practice on Friday. All three guys are less appealing in fantasy lineups this week with the return of QB Anthony Richardson.

View all Michael Pittman Jr. Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Michael Pittman Jr., WR IND
Dynasty MVP 31.5
Position Rank #42 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
309
496
825
Dynasty Write-up
Pittman registered 109-1,152-4 in the final year of his rookie deal. Come March, he signed a three-year deal with $46 million in guarantees. He needs improved play from Anthony Richardson for sustainable fantasy production.
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