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Michael Pittman Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMichael Pittman Jr.’s Basic Stats

Michael Pittman Jr.
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 4
Age: 27.2
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 223
40 Time: 4.52
Speed Score: 111.20

SPARQx (Rank): 112.10 (75%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.60 (56%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.10 (68%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.25 (89%)

Michael Pittman Jr.'s Weekly Outlook

Week 16 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 49.8 0.27 6.8
Weekly Writeup
Pittman has caught 5-6 passes in four straight games since QB Anthony Richardson returned to the lineup. But can he uphold a 71% catch rate with a QB who has completed just 50% of his throws over that span? Those factors – plus a mere 2 TDs all season, both from Joe Flacco – combine to make Pittman a decent-but-not-safe option in the WR3-4 fringe.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.6 52.9 0.3 7.2

Michael Pittman Jr.'s 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#39 Wide Receiver

187.1 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 74.9 842.2 4.66 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMichael Pittman Jr.'s Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Pittman is coming off his best season ever as the primary target for Gardner Minshew last season. He was more productive with Minshew than Anthony Richardson, so there are some red flags for Pittman.

The Colts also added an additional weapon in Adonai Mitchell, so Pittman’s target share is unlikely to continue as one of the highest in the NFL.

He clearly is talented and fairly consistent, but he is being overdrafted as a potential low-end WR1. A consistent low-end WR2 season is more realistic.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Pittman’s per-game averages were the best of his four-year career:
    • 7.85 targets
    • 6.81 receptions
    • 72.0 yards
    • 10.6 yards per catch
    • 0.25 TDs
  • His per-game production improved when Gardner Minshew took over for the injured Anthony Richardson
    • 10.00 targets
    • 7.09 receptions
    • 77.73 yards
    • 10.96 yards per catch
    • 0.27 TDs
  • Pittman ranked as the PPR WR14 in total fantasy points (248.2) and WR18 in points per game (15.5).
  • He missed one game last year (Week 15) with a concussion. It is the first game Pittman has missed since his rookie year (2020).
  • He had three top-12 finishes. He also had six WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Pittman’s 30.3% target share was the fourth highest in the NFL.
  • Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked:
    • 22nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
    • 23rd in yards per route run (2.04)
    • 80th in average target depth (8.1)
  • Among those same 92 WRs, Pittman was 31st in average separation yards (2.9), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Pittman enters his second season with the Colts under HC and play-caller Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter.
  • The Colts are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They also are 20th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +6000 on most sportsbooks, third highest in the division.
  • Pittman enters his fifth season at 26 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Pittman’s career and profile will produce at 96% of his peak value at age-26.
  • The Colts spent a Round 2 pick this spring on WR Adonai Mitchell and will hopefully get a healthier 2024 season from second-year WR Josh Downs. We’re projecting Pittman’s target share to decline this season, although we still project him to finish as a top-15 WR in targets.

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Alec Pierce, WR IND

1:19pm EST 12/20/24

Alec Pierce Out For Week 16

Colts WR Alec Pierce (concussion) is out for Sunday's game vs. the Titans. He leaves behind 4.1 targets per game, giving WRs Michael Pittman and Josh Downs slight boosts. WR Adonai Mitchell figures to soak up most of Pierce's snaps but is only viable in DFS tournaments.

View all Alec Pierce Shark Bites »

Colts WR Michael Pittman (back) returned to a full practice on Thursday. He should be ready to roll for this weekend's game vs. the Titans. Pittman is just a WR4 with QB Anthony Richardson at the controls.

View all Michael Pittman Jr. Shark Bites »

Colts WRs Michael Pittman (back) and Alec Pierce (concussion) did not practice on Wednesday. Pittman has been playing through this back issue for a while now, although he was a full-go at practice all last week. We're still tentatively expecting him to play vs. the Titans this weekend but will keep you posted on his status. Pierce is unlikely to clear protocol in time to play on Sunday.

View all Michael Pittman Jr. Shark Bites »

Colts WR Alec Pierce (foot) did not practice on Wednesday. We don't have any details on his foot injury. WR Josh Downs (shoulder) is not expected to play vs. the Patriots this weekend, while WR Ashton Dulin (ankle) also missed Wednesday's practice. That leaves Michael Pittman, Adonai Mitchell, and Anthony Gould as the three healthy WRs on Indianapolis' active roster.

View all Alec Pierce Shark Bites »

Colts WR Josh Downs is considered "week to week" with the shoulder injury he suffered in Sunday's loss to the Lions and is a "long shot" to play against the Patriots this weekend, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. "But the belief is he did not suffer a major injury," Rapoport adds.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Michael Pittman Jr., WR IND
Dynasty MVP 36
Position Rank #36 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
520
810
1,330
Dynasty Write-up
Pittman registered 109-1,152-4 in the final year of his rookie deal. Come March, he signed a three-year deal with $46 million in guarantees. He needs improved play from Anthony Richardson for sustainable fantasy production.
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