Michael Pittman Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Pittman is coming off his best season ever as the primary target for Gardner Minshew last season. He was more productive with Minshew than Anthony Richardson, so there are some red flags for Pittman.

The Colts also added an additional weapon in Adonai Mitchell, so Pittman’s target share is unlikely to continue as one of the highest in the NFL.

He clearly is talented and fairly consistent, but he is being overdrafted as a potential low-end WR1. A consistent low-end WR2 season is more realistic.

What We Learned Last Year

• Pittman’s per-game averages were the best of his four-year career:
  • 7.85 targets
  • 6.81 receptions
  • 72.0 yards
  • 10.6 yards per catch
  • 0.25 TDs
• His per-game production improved when Gardner Minshew took over for the injured Anthony Richardson
  • 10.00 targets
  • 7.09 receptions
  • 77.73 yards
  • 10.96 yards per catch
  • 0.27 TDs
• Pittman ranked as the PPR WR14 in total fantasy points (248.2) and WR18 in points per game (15.5).
• He missed one game last year (Week 15) with a concussion. It is the first game Pittman has missed since his rookie year (2020).
• He had three top-12 finishes. He also had six WR37 or worse finishes.
• Pittman’s 30.3% target share was the fourth highest in the NFL.
• Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked:
  • 22nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 23rd in yards per route run (2.04)
  • 80th in average target depth (8.1)
• Among those same 92 WRs, Pittman was 31st in average separation yards (2.9), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

• Pittman enters his second season with the Colts under HC and play-caller Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter.
• The Colts are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They also are 20th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +6000 on most sportsbooks, third highest in the division.
• Pittman enters his fifth season at 26 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Pittman’s career and profile will produce at 96% of his peak value at age-26.
• The Colts spent a Round 2 pick this spring on WR Adonai Mitchell and will hopefully get a healthier 2024 season from second-year WR Josh Downs. We’re projecting Pittman’s target share to decline this season, although we still project him to finish as a top-15 WR in targets.