Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 5

CMC: Buy, Sell, Hold ... All of the Above?

What should I do about Christian McCaffrey?

Whether you have him or don’t, you’ve probably pondered this at some point over the past four weeks.

The 49ers star has yet to play this season – in case you hadn’t noticed – and we’ve still got no clear word on when (if?) we should expect to see him on the field.

For most players, the answer would just be to stay away … especially given how well his replacement is performing.

But this is Christian Freakin’ McCaffrey. So let’s break it down …

You Have McCaffrey and Jordan Mason

This is the easiest scenario to figure out. This duo sets you up to keep absorbing 49ers RB points all year, no matter what happens with McCaffrey’s squawking calves.

Hold.

You Have McCaffrey But No Mason

This one depends a lot on what else you have going …

If your team’s in good shape still (at least top half of the league in scoring) and you have enough RBs to fill out your weekly lineup without playing a Cowboy, then try to hold on.

The best indication we’ve gotten so far is Week 10 for McCaffrey’s likeliest return date.

If you need a boost, then it’s certainly OK to shop McCaffrey. 

None of us really knows whether we’ll get a healthy McCaffrey at any point this season. So there’s nothing wrong with moving McCaffrey for a good starting player.

Our PPR Trade Value Chart has McCaffrey behind RBs such as: Tony Pollard and Brian Robinson Jr. And he’s near in value to WRs such as Jayden Reed, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Jameson Williams.

You Have Mason But No McCaffrey

This situation obviously carries the most incentive to try to acquire McCaffrey. Your CMC-holding league mate surely knows this.

In many leagues, that means you’ll have no chance at getting a fair price. But if your league mate’s reasonable, then you should be able to secure your team’s outlook while also providing the other team some immediate help.

Just keep in mind that you’ve already gotten way more value out of the 49ers backfield than you imagined heading into the season, if you have Mason and no McCaffrey. So don’t pay too much for CMC.

You Have Neither

If you’re not invested in the 49ers backfield at all right now, then your plan should depend heavily on your team and your comfort with risk.

The worse off your team is right now, the less you should be considering McCaffrey. It’s always good to play for upside, but you can’t afford to wait for a “maybe” five weeks from now.

If you’re in decent-to-good shape, though, and have a CMC manager in your league who doesn’t have Mason rostered, then why not take a shot?

Start low to see how frustrated that person is.

(Or feel free to continue avoiding the situation.)

Now let’s get to some other players …

Week 5 Buys

• Garrett Wilson
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Courtland Sutton

Week 5 Sells

• James Conner
• Jerome Ford
• Khalil Shakir

Week 5 Holds

• Mark Andrews
• Chase Brown

Want Help Building Those Trades?

Check out all of our trade chart options

• PPR fantasy trade value chart
• Superflex fantasy trade value chart
• Tight End Premium fantasy trade value chart
• Dynasty trade value chart
• Dynasty superflex trade value chart

Fantasy Trade Targets (Buy)

These WRs give us reason to believe their numbers can rebound.

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets

Wilson is no lock to rebound far enough to match his draft status.

Currently, he ranks just:

• 19th among WRs in target share
• 24th in air yards share
• 22nd in expected PPR points per game

But his actual numbers have been even worse. Here’s where Wilson has finished among PPR WRs by week:

• 29th
• 33rd
• 29th
• 54th

That puts him 42nd in points per game for the year. And coming off his worst performance yet should have his managers especially frustrated.

Expect Jets to Try Harder

Wilson is the Jets’ best WR. That’s why – as Aaron Rodgers said after the Week 3 win over the Patriots – defenses have been focused on taking him away.

Two of those three defenses lost to the Jets. And then in the Denver loss, Wilson faced probably the toughest CB he’ll face all year (Pat Surtain II).

Rodgers has been around a long time. He’s not going to force it to even his best wideout if the defense is surrounding him and some other teammate’s open.

Add that Rodgers has still been acclimating after missing nearly all of last year, and the slow start here makes sense.

But the Jets have also fallen short of 200 passing yards in three of four games and now sit 2-2. 

Jets Need Wilson to Rebound

This offense has some other talented pieces, but the group ranks just 24th in yards per play and 22nd in offensive DVOA through four games.

It needs Wilson to get going. And that’s surely part of the plan.

Wilson tied for seventh among WRs in expected points per game last year, the first with Nathaniel Hackett as OC. Wilson tied for 17th the year before as a rookie.

When Will It Happen?

The next three weeks will be interesting.

The Jets get the Vikings, Bills, and Steelers. They rank first, 10th, and seventh in total defensive DVOA so far (respectively) – and first, sixth and 14th against the pass.

Not a great stretch for an offensive breakout. But might that span of difficult defenses further motivate the Jets to gameplan opportunities for their best wideout?

The point here is not to target Wilson ahead of a Week 5 explosion or particularly attractive stretch. It’s to see just how cheaply you can acquire a good young WR before he starts to bounce back.

The Adams Rumor

This situation will look a lot different if the Jets acquire WR Davante Adams. Wilson's ceiling would almost certainly come down.

That said, the fear of Adams arriving could drive Wilson's price even lower in your fantasy league right now. And it's far from a lock he'll land there.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Just like Wilson, this is a bet on talent rather than some underlying usage metrics.

Aiyuk sits just 41st among WRs in target share and 31st in expected PPR points per game. That’s more understandable in San Francisco – where every offensive player appears to just be a stud-in-waiting – than with the Jets.

But it was just Aug. 29 when the team extended the 26-year-old for $30 million a year. You think they did so to get those sweet 41.8 yards per game?

Nothing Wrong with His Role

Aiyuk saw his Week 1 playing time limited a bit coming off a mostly inactive summer. But since Week 2, he ranks sixth among all WRs in route participation.

Last season, Aiyuk ranked 21st among WRs in target share at slightly lower route participation (81% vs. 86%). Jauan Jennings played for that team, too.

And Brock Purdy is averaging about three more pass attempts so far than he did last year.

The San Francisco offense remains loaded, so treat Aiyuk as a low-to-mid-level WR2.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos

Denver’s been pretty terrible on offense so far, and it’s damaging Sutton’s production. But any improvement in the passing game could propel him to fantasy usefulness.

Sutton ranks just 47th among WRs in PPR points per game through four weeks. But he ranks seventh in targets and fifth in expected PPR points per game.

That expected points formula probably doesn’t realize that Bo Nix is Sutton’s QB … but even the Denver rookie should be able to support WR3+ production at that level of usage.

It didn’t help Sutton – or Nix – that Denver already faced the Seahawks, Steelers, and Jets, all top-14 defenses in pass DVOA.

Next up: Raiders.

Recent Buys

Let's look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we'd treat those players now ...

• The Green Bay passing game came back to life with QB Jordan Love back last week. Falling quickly and dramatically behind the Vikings, though, left the Packers game-scripting away from Jacobs. That offers another chance to buy ahead of upside matchups with the Rams and Cardinals.
• Evans smacked the Eagles for an 8-94-1 receiving line last week. His manager's probably not worried anymore.
• If you bought Robinson last week, he rewarded you with a 21-101-1 rushing line (plus 3 receptions) in the lopsided win over the Cardinals. If you didn't get him last week, you'll probably have a tougher time buying now. A price check wouldn't hurt in that case, especially given how the offense is performing on whole.
• Olave has posted receiving lines of 6-86-1 and 8-87 in the two games since we first listed him. If you can still buy him at a reasonable price, feel free.
• LaPorta's tougher to put a strong "buy" call on right now because of the loaded offense challenging his target share. But he also might be even cheaper this week with the Lions on bye.
• Moss scored for the second straight game but also saw Chase Brown catch back up in work share. (More on Brown later in this article.)

Fantasy Sells

Let's kick off this section with a vet we're always buying ... until now.

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

This one hurts. We’re Conner fans around here. But we can’t ignore trends.

Let’s start with Conner’s passing game usage. He ranks just 29th among RBs in route participation and 54th in target share.

The first category finds him actually slightly ahead of last year (32nd). But the targets are down, and Conner’s working on a career low 1.5 receptions per game – down from last year’s career low.

Maybe it’s going to rebound. Or maybe a healthier Kyler Murray is just scrambling instead of dumping the ball off.

Murray’s averaging a scramble every 12.9 dropbacks this year vs. one every 19 last year. And Conner’s down from 2.4 receptions per game in Murray weeks last year to 1.5.

Flimsy Production So Far

That slight decline from already lower-level receiving usage just adds weekly risk to Conner, who has inflated his numbers in two good matchups.

Conner delivered 122 yards and a TD against the Rams in Week 2, and then 104 and a TD against the Commanders in Week 4. Those defenses rank 31st and 28th in rush DVOA, respectively.

The next three weeks hold the 49ers (fifth), Packers (ninth), and Chargers (12th).

That Other Risk Factor

We all know that drafting Conner in the first place means absorbing the injury risk. He hasn’t gotten hurt yet this year. And he has missed at least two games every season.

Conner entered the year with the fourth-highest injury risk at the position, according to our Injury Predictor algorithm.

Getting out before he goes down next wouldn’t be a bad thing.

Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns

Ford hasn’t been a big producer so far and sits just 22nd among RBs in PPR points. But that’s a useful level of production, and his most recent outing included 7 receptions, his second game of 6+ receptions through four weeks.

Ford figures to remain the lead receiving RB in Cleveland. But he’s sure to lose work overall.

The Browns have designated Nick Chubb to return to practice this week. That doesn’t mean he’ll play Week 5, but it means they need to activate him within 21 days.

So Chubb’s returning soon – and we don’t yet know how soon – to an offense that provided Ford just 12, 7, 10, and 10 rushing attempts through four games.

Cleveland also designated Nyheim Hines to return. Perhaps he’s just a kick returner … or maybe he’ll siphon some touches.

Either way, try shopping Ford before this backfield gets overcrowded.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills

Shakir sits 21st among PPR scorers at WR and looks like Josh Allen’s lead wideout. But is he really a No. 1?

Shakir ranks just 69th among WRs in route participation. He sits 49th in target share, 95th in air yards share, and 69th in expected fantasy points per game.

He has also caught 94.7% of his targets through four games. That’s awesome … and it absolutely won’t last.

Selling Shakir, of course, will depend on finding someone who believes he’s Allen’s “No. 1 WR.” It’s possible you don’t find that manager. And in that case, feel free to hold.

Even if Shakir’s in for some regression, there are worse assets than the Bills’ target leader.

This week's ankle injury will also make him difficult to sell. If the market's not there -- hold.

Recent Sells

Let's look back at our Sell recommendations from last two weeks and how we'd treat those players now ...

• As I mentioned in last week's article and his post-Week 4 Shark Bite, you should only sell Metcalf for a big return. He is producing above his usage so far and faces target challenges. But he's also playing with a strongly efficient QB in the leagues highest-volume pass offense. I probably wouldn't even bother shopping the WR ahead of this Sunday's high-upside clash with the Giants.
• If you unloaded Etienne last week, congrats. He followed that inclusion by sustaining a shoulder injury (he returned to the game) and watching Tank Bigsby out-rush him. I'd be looking for any opportunity to sell Etienne the rest of the way -- just not for a crappy return.
• We included Williams in this section each of the past two weeks, and he responded with 52 PPR points over that span. I concede.
• Dobbins' first two games produced rushing lines of 10-135-1 and 17-131-1. Then I wrote him up here. Since then: 15-44-0 and 14-32-0. And now he's on bye. You probably can't sell him this week, but keep an eye out for opportunities.

Fantasy Holds

Here we have a couple of frustrating starts: One that rebounded in Week 4 ... after a guy we're all still waiting on.

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

What choice do you have, really?

Andrews has caught six passes through four weeks. He sits 39th among TEs in total PPR points and 50th in points per game. 

He just went two straight weeks without a catch for the first time in his career. It was also the first time since his rookie year (2018) that Andrews went two straight weeks with fewer than 2 receptions.

There’s a problem.

Why Bother Holding?

So why not just give up? Well, we really haven’t gotten any indication from the team that the 29-year-old is washed.

His usage the past two games is undeniably worrisome:

• 35% route share vs. Dallas
• 56% vs. Buffalo

But here’s what HC John Harbaugh said this week: 

I certainly don’t know whether Andrews will rebound to TE1 territory, which is why he’s not a “buy.” But I feel pretty sure the Ravens won’t keep passing just 15 or 18 times a game as they did the past two weeks. And I don’t believe Andrews is done.

He finished last season fourth in yards per route among 36 TEs who saw 40+ targets, according to Pro Football Focus.

Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Brown suddenly exploded for a pair of TDs and top-6 fantasy finishes across formats in Week 4.

That might seem to position him as a sell-high – and you could let him go if a truly good opportunity arises.

But Brown also saw his usage rebound. He played a season-high 40% of snaps against the Panthers, matching Zack Moss’ 15 carries and trailing him by just 1 target.

That marked a stark contrast vs. the previous two weeks, when Moss worked well ahead of Brown. And the latter’s work included two rushing scores from inside the 5-yard line.

Two games of near-even splits and two games of lopsided shares mean we can’t tell how this backfield will go. But the high upside of the Bengals offense makes it easier to want to wait and see.

Recent Holds

Let's see where Holds from the past two weeks stand.

• Can I tell you a secret? I wanted to sell Cook last week. I said as much on our Week 4 Preview podcast. And part of it was the switch from a soft schedule start to the current tough three-game span that started with a lopsided loss at Baltimore last Sunday night. Did that performance (10 touches, 48 yards) change his market valuation? I'd still be willing to check. My colleagues have been on the "hold" side here, though.
• New Orleans' passing volume finally picked up in Week 4, and Shaheed benefited. His 11 targets led the team, as do his 25 targets for the season.
• Higgins got a nice 10 targets and tallied a solid 6 receptions in last week's win at Carolina. His 60 yards didn't stand out, though. And he has no TDs through two games. Points will come. He's worth a price check before they do.

How Should You Attack These Trade Targets?

The Trade Navigator will help you find what you want ... and the league mates who need what you got. And then it'll help you build that season-changing trade package.

Check out this short video to learn more ...

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.