Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Aiyuk is coming off a historically efficient 2023 season, averaging the second-most yards per target among 855 qualifying WR seasons since 2014.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that he still finished just 13th among WRs in PPR points, largely because he ranked 35th in targets per game.

Likely in for similar volume this season at reduced efficiency, Aiyuk looks like a mid-range WR2 for fantasy squads.

What We Learned Last Year

• Aiyuk missed Week 3 with a shoulder injury and was pulled early in a meaningless Week 18 game.
• His per-game scoring averages in his other 15 games ranked:
  • 13th among WRs in PPR points
  • 13th in half-PPR points
  • 10th in non-PPR
• Aiyuk was a steady weekly producer for fantasy teams.
  • He finished as a top-36 PPR WR in 13 of those 15 games.
  • He ranked among the top-24 nine times.
  • He scored as a top-12 WR five times.
• Aiyuk averaged 6.7 targets across his 15 full games. That ranked 35th among WRs.
• His 23.6% target share ranked 18th at the position.
• Aiyuk ranked just 35th among WRs in expected PPR points per game.
• He produced via high-end efficiency. Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets, Aiyuk ranked:
  • 9th in catch rate
  • 2nd in yards per catch
  • 1st in yards per target
• Aiyuk’s 12.8 yards per target was the second-best mark among 855 WR seasons of 50+ targets since 2014.
• His 3.01 yards per target ranked third among 80 qualifying WRs last year. Aiyuk joined Julio Jones, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, and Nico Collins as one of the only five WRs to top 3.0 yards per route over the past 10 seasons.

What to Expect in 2024

• Aiyuk returns to a very similar situation this year.
  • Kyle Shanahan is back for his eighth season as 49ers HC.
  • QB Brock Purdy returns for year 3 and his second as full-time starter.
  • WR Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle, and RB Christian McCaffrey also return.
  • The biggest change to San Francisco’s offense is the addition of first-round rookie WR Ricky Pearsall. He’s a closer stylistic match to Aiyuk than Samuel, but we’re not expecting Pearsall to make a significant impact on Aiyuk’s role or volume this season.
• Aiyuk is a negative regression candidate in 2024 after that historic yards per target last year.
  • The four other WRs to reach 12.0 yards per target over the past 10 seasons all averaged at least 1.5 fewer yards per target the following year. The average decline was 2.7 yards per target.
  • Aiyuk averaged 8.8 yards per target over his first three seasons. That ranked 24th among 109 qualifying WRs.
• Any drop in efficiency from Aiyuk could be at least partly offset by the 49ers throwing more this season.
  • Their 28.9 pass attempts per game last year were the fewest in the Shanahan era. San Francisco averaged 32.8 passes per game in Shanny’s first six seasons.
  • Last year’s passing volume was hurt in part by the 49ers playing with so many leads. While they ranked 30th in pass rate, they ranked 23rd in pass rate in neutral game situations and 17th in pass rate over expected. If the Niners aren’t quite as good this season, it should lead to more pass attempts.
  • The passing volume was also hurt by the 49ers ranking 27th with 60.2 offensive plays per game. That was the lowest mark in the Shanahan era, although it’s worth noting that San Francisco ranked 32nd in both offensive pace and situation-neutral pace last year. We’re projecting more plays this season, but not significantly more.
• Aiyuk has finished between WR13 and WR25 in PPR points per game in three of his four seasons.
  • 2020 - 19th
  • 2021 - 49th
  • 2022 - 25th
  • 2023 - 13th
• While not as big an injury risk as teammate Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk is projected to miss 2.9 games this season, according to our Injury Predictor. That’s the fifth most projected games missed among WRs.