Mark Andrews - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Andrews is really good. Baltimore’s offense is really good. Those two combine to make him one of the perennial best bets for fantasy points at his position. And fantasy drafters’ fascination with new toys is pushing Andrews behind Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid in many drafts. That makes this proven producer a solid-to-strong value for 2024 drafting – and perhaps even a good dynasty buy.

What We Learned Last Year

• We learned that Andrews’ left leg is not indestructible. He suffered a fibula fracture and ligament damage in the ankle on a Nov. 16 tackle by Bengals LB Logan Wilson. That knocked Andrews out of Week 11 in the first half and kept him out until Round 2 of the playoffs.
• Andrews also missed Week 1 with a quad injury.
• His target share slipped in his healthy games. Andrews ranked fourth among TEs for the season, and his share for healthy weeks 2-10 would have landed him third. But his 23.4% over that span came in lower than …
  • 2022: 28.2% (led all TEs)
  • 2021: 26.6% (led TEs)
  • 2020: 25.4% (third)
  • 2019: 24.1% (third)
• Last year’s high ranking among TEs makes it clear that’s not an alarming drop. But it likely signals impact from WR Zay Flowers’ arrival.
  • Flowers drew 23% target share across Andrews’ healthy span as a first-round rookie.
• Andrews’ other numbers pretty much lined up with his career to date.
  • He averaged 4.8 receptions and 57.9 yards per game across nine healthy outings. That marked a dip of 0.1 catches but a 1.4-yard improvement vs. 2022.
  • Andrews saw his aDOT reach a career low but still improved his yards per catch by 0.5 vs. 2022.
  • The 2.0-yard dip in aDOT (according to PFF) coincided with the first season of OC Todd Monken and was shorter than the aDOTs for any Baltimore WR.
• Andrews remained a key red-zone piece, easily leading the team in targets in that range over his nine full weeks (17 vs. Flowers’ 12). He also led teammates in end-zone targets and catches.
• Andrews enjoyed a career-high catch rate. A healthy season for Lamar Jackson helped, after the QB missed five games each of the previous two years.
• Baltimore tied for just 30th in the league in pass attempts but dropped back more often under Monken. They climbed from 12th in neutral-situation pass rate to seventh.

What to Expect in 2024

• Andrews played a limited role in his playoff return (a loss to the Chiefs). But the timing of that return should mean the left leg isn’t an issue for 2024.
• Baltimore shed WR Odell Beckham Jr. this offseason. Beckham ranked second on the team in total targets last year, third in receptions per game, and first in total end-zone targets.
• The biggest import among pass-catchers was fourth-round WR Devontez Walker.
• That combo should mean no added target competition for Andrews, though HC John Harbaugh has said he expects to get more out of WR Rashod Bateman this season.
• TE Isaiah Likely might look like a threat after averaging 3.5 catches and 53.7 yards per game from Week 12 through the end of last season. But Likely totaled 8 receptions in the 10 games he shared with Andrews. And half of those came in a blowout win over Seattle that Andrews and some other starters left early.
• Andrews’ target share might stay down, with Flowers on track to be the biggest target earner among Baltimore WRs in a while. But the TE’s 2023 fantasy-scoring average for his nine healthy games was the second-highest of his career – and less than 0.05 behind Travis Kelce’s lead.
• This version of the Baltimore offense – which added RB Derrick Henry for $9 million guaranteed – should keep the efficiency up in the passing game.