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Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 10

Time to Check Remaining Schedule

We're into the second half of the season now. So it's not only time to win more weeks, but we also need to start looking ahead.

We'll have more later this week to help you set up for the fantasy football playoffs. But you'll also find plenty of references among this week's trade targets to our customizable Strength of Schedule pages.

Week 10 Buys

• Mike Evans
• Dalton Kincaid
• Jaylen Warren

Week 10 Sells

• DeVonta Smith
• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Cedric Tillman

Week 10 Holds

• Nick Chubb
• Rico Dowdle

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Fantasy Trade Targets (Buy)

These guys promise upside for the coming weeks.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We bought Evans way back in Week 4. But much has changed since then.

Chris Godwin’s gone for the year. And Evans himself is gone for now. The hamstring injury that knocked him out of the Week 7 loss to Baltimore and cost him the past two games is expected to keep Evans out this Sunday against the 49ers. And then comes a Week 11 bye.

And that’s why you should consider sending an offer for him now.

The Buccaneers expect – or at least hope – to have Evans back for the Week 12 visit to the Giants. That’s why they didn’t put him on IR.

If he’s ready, he’ll return as the lead WR for a schedule that’s much friendlier than our Strength of Schedule page makes it look.

Among those six games (five opponents), only the Chargers sport an actually good defense. Here’s how each ranks in pass DVOA and total defensive DVOA:

If you can afford to sacrifice the WR spot for the next two weeks, you could get a real difference maker for the end of your season.

Getting Evans should be even easier if his current manager needs more immediate help.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills

Kincaid has done a poor job of scoring fantasy points this year. He sits just 16th among TEs in PPR points per game. But he remains in the neighborhood of larger scores.

The second-year TE ranks sixth at the position in target share, fifth in total targets, and ninth in expected PPR points per game. Part of the reason he hasn’t delivered has been a 59.3% catch rate – well down from his 80.2% as a rookie.

There’s been no dramatic shift in his role, though. Pro Football Focus has Kincaid’s aDOT just 1.1-yard deeper than last year’s. He’s playing almost exactly the same amount in the slot (59.3% vs. 60.6%). And he’s even averaging slightly more yards per route (1.56 vs. 1.51).

That catch rate’s likely to come up. Josh Allen hasn’t changed.

And the Bills are passing more lately. Since Week 6, they sport the league’s third-highest pass rate over expected.

They also sport their two best remaining matchups for TE scoring the next two weeks:

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Warren’s another player we bought previously, ahead of Week 6. Here’s how he has fared in PPR since then:

• RB41
• RB34
• RB39

So what’s to like?

For one thing, Warren appears to have reclaimed the backfield receiving lead. Over the first six weeks, Najee Harris ranked 20th among RBs in route share. Warren – who missed two games – ranked 39th for the weeks he played.

Weeks 7 and 8, however, found Warren ranking 19th and Harris 43rd.

That hasn’t meant much production for Warren, who has also increased his rushing work the past two games. But it could set him up for more against a difficult RB schedule the rest of the way …

The league’s third-worst remaining RB schedule typically wouldn’t be a selling point for acquiring an RB. But it could help Warren’s usage vs. Harris’ the rest of the way.

Upside vs. Cost

Of course, Harris has also played well lately and isn’t likely to turn over much rushing work. That makes Warren a RB3 with RB2 scoring potential should he find the end zone. 

(He ranks right behind Harris – 10th and 11th – in percentage of total carries that have come in the red zone over their past two weeks.)

But the ultimate upside would come with a Harris injury. That possibility is what makes Warren a buy instead of just a hold.

The chance that Harris doesn’t go down, however, means you shouldn’t overpay. Warren makes more sense as a piece of a larger deal than a straight 1-for-1.

Recent Buys

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

• Engram didn’t deliver big numbers against Philly. No one on Jacksonville’s offense did. His 10 targets led the team by four, though, and constituted 32.3% of Trevor Lawrence’s total pass attempts. This week’s reports of “upper-body soreness” (yeah, same here) for the QB can only help keep Engram’s price down if you want to take a shot.
• Cooper the cost might be even lower for Cooper now after he missed Week 9 with a wrist injury. And a big part of buying him is that low price. I discussed the questions/potential of the Bills’ pass offense with Cooper’s two teammates that appear separately in this article.
• Nabers continued his target dominance last week – 11, a 42.3% share of the team’s total – without posting big numbers. That might have extended the potential buy window by a week. Make an offer before he plays the Panthers, if you’re considering doing so.
• We’ll see about Samuel’s health this week. But he was deemed “day-to-day” before the Week 9 bye. Doesn’t sound serious. If you’re gonna try, send the offer before this week’s matchup with the Bucs.
• No chance you can still buy Achane after his past two games.
• Worthy probably got even easier to buy after a 2-target, 0-catch outing vs. Tampa Bay. Nothing changed about his role. The rookie ran a route on 78.4% of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks, trailing only Travis Kelce. And Worthy might have delivered a 33-yard TD catch in the first quarter with more attentive footwork.

Fantasy Sells

These are not necessarily “must” sells. Some candidates might be. But these are generally decent-to-good fantasy assets that you might be able to sell right now for more than we expect them to be worth going forward. 

If you don’t get a good enough return, don’t make the trade.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Smith rebounded the past two weeks from down target shares in the first two games after A.J. Brown returned from injury. 

He topped 80 yards and scored for the second straight week and now sits 16th in PPR points per game.

So What’s the Problem?

Smith remains in a suboptimal setting for regular targets and production. Philly sports the league’s third-lowest pass rate over expected for the season – and the lowest over the past four weeks.

That seems especially noteworthy because that span began with Brown’s return to the lineup.

Smith sits tied for just 36th among WRs in targets for the season, and tied for 39th in expected PPR points per game.

He has also benefited from TE Dallas Goedert missing the past three games.

Smith is a good, efficient player in one of the league’s best scoring offenses. So make sure you don’t undersell him. But he doesn’t appear set up to continue scoring at his current level.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

You might love Stevenson right now because he delivered 2 TDs for your team each of the past two weeks. But that has masked a still-bad situation.

Stevenson’s averaging just 3.8 yards per rush and 4.3 yards per catch this season, both career lows. A big part of the problem is an O-line that ranks worst in the league in both PFF run-blocking grade and pass-blocking grade. And it has probably gotten worse since the Week 4 shoulder injury to C David Andrews.

Check out Stevenson’s weekly rate of yards before contact per attempt, according to Pro Football Reference:

As Jared pointed out in this week’s Usage Takeaways, Stevenson has gotten workhorse usage lately. That’s nice for the RB’s fantasy floor. And QB Drake Maye has clearly added juice to the offense.

But he has also added buzz. When you combine that with Stevenson’s 4 TDs (on crappy yardage) over the past two weeks, there’s a chance you can sell the Pats lead back for more than he’s likely to be worth the rest of the way.

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns

Tillman has been a monster over the past three games. No other WR has scored more fantasy points over that span. And that’s the beginning of the sell case.

Tillman has averaged 10.7 targets, 7.0 receptions, 85.0 yards, and 1.0 TDs over that span. That’s coming down. Only four WRs averaged 7+ receptions per game last season. Five did so the year before. Just two are doing so this year: Malik Nabers and Chris Godwin.

Of course, Tillman could come down from those numbers and still help your fantasy lineup. But how far will he regress? That’s the part we don’t know.

QB Switch?

The big risk here is Dorian Thompson-Robinson taking over for Jameis Winston at any point. HC Kevin Stefanski already fielded questions about that possibility after Winston played terribly in his second start.

The coach said Winston will remain the starter coming out of the Week 10 bye. But the Browns also hit Week 7 (Watson’s injury game) with DTR as the QB2 and Winston as the emergency No. 3. Winston only entered that game after Thompson-Robinson also got hurt.

If the now 2-7 Browns remain interested in Thompson-Robinson over the long term, it will only make more sense to check him out as they fall further out of playoff contention.

No Fire Sale

All that said, you probably didn’t pay much to get Tillman. So everything he has given you is a bonus. And if Winston stays in there the rest of the way, the young wideout could definitely keep helping you.

So you should only sell Tillman if you’re getting a strong return. Think mid-level WR2 value or better.

Recent Sells

Let’s look back at our Sell recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

• Ridley followed his 10-143 Week 8 splash with a fine 5-73 receiving line on 8 targets in a positive matchup. He remains sellable – and sell-worthy.
• Andrews reminded us of the downside risk last week, drawing just 2 targets while running a route on just 54.5% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks. Probably tougher to sell him this week, especially with the short turnaround to playing Thursday night.
• Montgomery interestingly failed to find the end zone for just the second game this season – despite garnering his second-most touches (20) this year. I don’t see any net change in his status or outlook from that.
• Bigsby offered no production last week in a bad matchup. But he not only remained the lead ball carrier with Travis Etienne Jr. back; he also ran four more pass routes than Etienne. The trade deadline passed, though, without Jacksonville shipping Etienne. So this’ll probably stay a frustrating backfield. Look for more sell opportunities if you haven’t already gotten out.
• Not much to take away from last week’s season-low production for Murray. He faced a tough defense, his offense was rushing successfully, and the Cards played from well ahead. Everything set up for him to not have a big week. Week 10 holds a potentially tough Jets matchup. And then comes the Week 11 bye. Hence the timing for our Week 8 “sell.”
• Cook delivered a big game at Seattle and then a meh outing vs. the Dolphins (boosted by season-high receptions). Nothing has changed on his case for me. If you’re still holding, feel free to wait through this week’s fine matchup with the Colts. After that, though, comes a bad matchup with K.C. and then the bye.

Fantasy Holds

You might want to hang on to these guys for now to see what happens.

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

If you waited for Chubb through six weeks of inactivity, he hasn’t done much yet to reward your patience. But there have been some positives.

As Jared included in his Week 8 usage report, Chubb has been the only RB all season to post positive rush yards over expected vs. the Ravens. (That stayed true through Denver’s loss to Baltimore in Week 9.)

Chubb’s also fared better in yards after contact per carry each of the past two weeks than he did in the 22-yard return game against Cincinnati. And perhaps most importantly, he already ranks 10th among RBs in carry share.

Barring negative reports about how he’s feeling coming out of the bye, I’d consider him as a low RB2 in non-PPR leagues for a Week 11 date with the Saints. If Chubb fares well there, he might be ready to help more down the stretch.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys

I’m not personally a believer in Dowdle. And we mentioned him as a “sell” back in Week 6. But right now’s a good time to play wait-and-see.

Dowdle has set season highs in yards per carry in three straight games, including a 12-75 rushing line against the Falcons on Sunday. He has also drawn 6 targets and tallied 5 receptions in two straight contests.

Ezekiel Elliott appears on the verge of totally breaking up with the team. Dalvin Cook got shots the past two weeks and reminded everyone he’s not that good (8 carries, 20 yards).

Dak Prescott’s hamstring injury figures to further damage an offense that already ranks just 25th in DVOA. That factor will likely both:

1. Make Dowdle more important to the offense, and
2. Make the RB more difficult to sell.

So unless someone comes chasing after him in trade, probably best to hold.

Recent Holds

Let's see where Holds from the past two weeks stand.

• Holding Flowers couldn’t have worked much better. He’s now coming off his best fantasy line of the season: 5-127-2 for 29.7 PPR points. That marked his third game this season with at least 22 PPR points. You can do whatever you want with him now, between enjoying the production the rest of the way and moving him for other roster-boosting pieces. (But I’m certainly not calling him a “Sell.” We have a whole section for that.)
• We knew Williams was probably in for weak production in a bad rushing matchup with the Ravens last week. He at least maintained his leads over Jaleel McLaughlin in carries and pass routes.
• Mahomes has posted his two best fantasy scores of the season since we “held” him. Last week, however, marked his first weekly fantasy finish higher than QB13. That’s why we weren’t buying him. And the improvement is why we weren’t selling him.
• After a Week 8 spike, McConkey got back to tallying reliably decent PPR production. He’s averaging 7 targets, 5 receptions, and 66.2 yards per game over the past five weeks – with 4-6 catches in each of those games.

How Should You Attack These Trade Targets?

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Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.