Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Players With Elevated Injury Risk

Calculating Injury Risk

One of the pitfalls of fantasy football is dealing with inevitable injuries and the fallout for your team. 

Deciding whether to start someone with a “Questionable” tag or losing your first-round pick for multiple weeks with an injury can be the most frustrating part of the game.

If you knew which players were at a higher risk of injury, your draft strategy would change.

We are here to help you by analyzing all the data from player injuries back to college and assessing who has an elevated injury risk in 2024.

Draft Sharks Injury Guide  

The Draft Sharks Injury Guide outlines each player's potential risk of injury and the number of games we project them to miss this season.

Not only are you worried about a player suffering an injury, but knowing if a player will play through minor injuries is crucial to setting your fantasy lineup. Therefore, we also give each player a Durability Score, with a five being the best score, most likely to play through minor injuries.  

An injury history for every player is documented on their player page.

How can you predict injuries?

We all know the common trope: “You can’t predict injuries.”

We have put that to the test by building an entire database of injuries and analyzing:

• Injury Class 
• Conditions
• Body Part
• Body Class

Using historical data, we analyze reinjury rates for all injuries relative to player position and other factors.

This can give you an edge in your fantasy drafts and recognize players with elevated injury risks this season.

Let’s dive into players with an elevated injury issue in 2024.

QBs With Elevated Injury Risk

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Probability of Injury in the season: 80.3%

Projected Games Missed: 2.70

Stafford has suffered over 20 injuries throughout his career.

Last season, Stafford missed a game and a half with a thumb injury and also sustained a hip injury later in the season.

In 2022, Stafford missed eight games due to concussion symptoms.

At 36 years old, Stafford’s advanced age, along with his injury history, puts him at an increased risk of getting injured this season and missing games. 

Finishing at only 18th among QBs in fantasy points per game last season, combined with his injury probability, shows why Stafford is a low-end QB2, despite having two top WRs on his team.  

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Probability of Injury in the season: 69.2%

Projected Games Missed: 2.40

Herbert’s injury history is piling up, despite him being only 26 years old.

Last season, Herbert suffered multiple finger injuries, including fracturing his right index finger, leading to season-ending surgery.

He also has dealt with multiple shoulder issues dating back to college.

In addition to Herbert’s history, he already injured his right foot during training camp. 

Though Herbert is expected to be ready for Week 1, plantar fasciitis can linger and cause additional problems for him this season. 

Combine all of this with the Chargers likely leaning on the run more, and Herbert’s profile remains unattractive despite his talent.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Probability of Injury in the season: 63.3% 

Projected Games Missed: 2.40

Burrow played through a calf injury early last season and then missed the last seven weeks with a wrist injury.

He's been sidelined with multiple knee injuries, including tearing his ACL, MCL, and PCL in 2020.

Being the second-most sacked QB in the NFL since entering the league in 2020 with a whooping 145 sacks doesn’t help Burrow stay healthy.

The wear and tear on Burrow, along with his injury history, makes him an elevated risk, though he should be a QB1 when on the field. 

RBs With Elevated Injury Risk

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

Probability of Injury in the season: 88.7%

Projected Games Missed: 3.48

The big question for Williams is the foot issues that have plagued him throughout his NFL career.

He has broken his foot (requiring surgery) as well as suffered two separate high-ankle sprains over the past two years.

William dealt with another “foot issue” this offseason that stopped him from participating in OTAs.

Foot issues can linger and reoccur, so Williams is at a major risk of missing games this season.

Even so, Williams' workhorse ability makes him potential RB1 this season.

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs

Probability of Injury in the season: 90.4%

Projected Games Missed: 3.40

Pacheco has had various injuries throughout his career, but his right shoulder creates the biggest concern.

In 2022, Pacheco had surgery on that shoulder. Last season, he missed two games after reinjuring the shoulder and needing a clean-up procedure.

Combined with some of his other injuries, Pacheco’s chance of injury is high for 2024.

The Chiefs seem ready to lean on Pacheco despite this risk, however, so he may still be worth investing in at ADP.

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Probability of Injury in the season: 83.4% 

Projected Games Missed: 3.40

In only three months last year, Achane suffered a shoulder sprain and knee sprain, causing him to miss six total games.

Add in a foot injury from his final year in college, and Achane’s injury history is problematic.

In his 11 games last season, Achane finished as a top-8 PPR back five times. So he's worth having despite his elevated injury risk.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Probability of Injury in the season: 88.4%

Projected Games Missed: 2.80

When Conner plays, he produces. In his 12 healthy games last year, Conner was seventh among RBs in PPR points.

The issue for Conner has been his extensive injury history. Last season, Conner went on IR due to a knee injury. He’s had five different foot injuries over the past four seasons, as well.

It’s likely the 29-year old will miss time again this season, but he can still be extremely effective on a per-game basis.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Probability of Injury in the season: 87.6%

Projected Games Missed: 3.10

Jones has joined the Vikings this year, but there is plenty of risk for a player turning 30 this year who has an increased injury probability.

Chronic knee issues have been Jones' major issue. He's sprained his right MCL twice and also sprained his left MCL last year, which caused him to miss three games.

He dealt with a knee injury toward the end of the 2021 season, missing the finale.

With additional foot and hamstring injuries as well, Jones has a high probability of injury again this year.

WRs With Elevated Injury Risk

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Probability of Injury in the season: 86.6%

Projected Games Missed: 3.40  

Samuel was WR6 in PPR points per game last year when he was healthy, but injuries plagued him.

He fractured his right shoulder during the season and also pulled his hamstring in the Super Bowl.

Samuel's frequent thigh and hamstring injuries have been a consistent problem since college with seven different injuries over the course of his playing career.

Expect Samuel to end up banged up again this year with plenty of "Questionable" tags. But his injury history is factored into his price tag in fantasy drafts. He's a value according to our ADP Market Index.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

Probability of Injury in the season: 89.2%

Projected Games Missed: 2.40

Higgins' demands for a new contract haven’t been met, and his injury history may get in the way of a successful season.

Last year, Higgins fractured a rib in Week 4 but managed to miss only one game.

A midseason hamstring injury cost him another three, however, and also sidelined him in Week 18. He has been no stranger to hamstring injuries as this was his fifth since college.

Higgins also dealt with numerous ankle issues over the course of 2021 and 2022, as well.

We love Higgins as a value despite the injury issues as it seems to have soured fantasy players too much on him in drafts.

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

Probability of Injury in the season: 86.6%

Projected Games Missed: 2.40

The stars are aligning for a London breakout, but his injury history could be a roadblock to a huge season-long total.

He missed a game last season with a groin pull, and dealt with a knee bruise in the preseason of his rookie year as well.

Much of London’s injury history came from college, where he fractured his ankle in his final season at USC, missing most of the season.

He also experienced some back issues in college.

With Kirk Cousins at QB and a new offense, London is still an early WR pick we like, but his probability of injury remains high.

Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears

Probability of Injury in the season: 74.9%

Projected Games Missed: 3.10

Allen was traded to Chicago, and he brings an extensive injury history with him.

He missed the last four games of 2023 with a heel injury and played through a sprained A/C joint in his shoulder.

With multiple ankle, knee, and shoulder injuries throughout his career, Allen earned the “injury prone” tag for most of his 11-year career.

He was extremely effective last year as the WR3 in PPR points per game, but don’t expect another full season from Allen.

At 32 years old, injuries are likely to continue being a problem.

TEs With Elevated Injury Risk

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Probability of Injury in the season: 80.6%

Projected Games Missed: 2.00

Kittle led all TEs in yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year, but he has been no stranger to injuries.

Last season, Kittle dealt with a nagging groin issue and had offseason surgery for a sports hernia. He even missed two games in 2022 due to groin issues.

Hamstring and ankle injuries marred his early career, as well.

He will turn 31 years old this year and faces a high probability of injury as the wear and tear of his career piles up.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

Probability of Injury in the season: 88.3%

Projected Games Missed: 3.10

After being TE11 in PPR points per game in 2022, Freiermuth was TE28 in PPR points per game last season.

A nagging hamstring issue cost him five games. He also injured his hamstring in 2022 during training camp.

With three documented concussions and a shoulder injury ending Freiermuth’s college career, he has nursed a variety of injuries that could pop up again. 

All of this raises Freiermuth’s injury risk, but he should be a focal point in Arthur Smith’s new offense and be a solid contributor on a per-game basis.

Dig Deeper Into Injuries

If you want even more details about how we build our injury predictions, watch the video below:

Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format including redraft, dynasty, devy, IDP, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance.