Deebo Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Samuel missed time with injury again last year but ranked sixth among WRs in PPR points per game when healthy.

And that sums up Samuel perfectly heading into 2024: He’s one of the biggest injury risks in fantasy football but is a likely difference-maker when he’s on the field.

As long as that risk is baked into his price tag, Samuel is a nice draft target.

What We Learned Last Year

• Samuel was knocked out early in Week 6 with a hairline fracture in his shoulder and missed the next two games. He was also pulled early in a meaningless Week 18 game.
• His per-game scoring averages in his other 13 games ranked:
  • 6th among WRs in PPR points
  • 6th in half-PPR points
  • 3rd in non-PPR
• Samuel was a volatile weekly producer.
  • He finished as a top-12 PPR WR six times.
  • But he ranked WR36 or worse in four of his other seven full games.
• Samuel ranked just 24th among WRs in expected PPR points per game in those 13 full games.
• He averaged 6.6 targets in those games – 37th among WRs.
• Samuel’s 22.8% target share in full games ranked 23rd at his position.
• He was super efficient. Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets, Samuel ranked:
  • 22nd in catch rate
  • 24th in yards per catch
  • 8th in yards per target
• Samuel ranked 12th among those 80 WRs with 2.32 yards per route. That was the second-best mark of his career.
• Samuel also contributed as a runner. He led all WRs with:
  • 37 carries
  • 225 rushing yards
  • 5 rushing TDs

What to Expect in 2024

• Samuel was the subject of trade rumors this offseason but remains with the 49ers as of now.
• He returns to a very similar situation this year.
  • Kyle Shanahan is back for his eighth season as 49ers HC.
  • QB Brock Purdy returns for year 3 and his second as full-time starter.
  • WR Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle, and RB Christian McCaffrey also return.
  • The biggest change to San Francisco’s offense is the addition of first-round rookie WR Ricky Pearsall. He should push Jauan Jennings for the No. 3 WR job, but we’re not expecting Pearsall to make a significant impact on Samuel’s role.
• Samuel is a negative regression candidate in 2024 after significantly out-producing his opportunity last year. But he’s typically done that throughout his career. Samuel has posted an above-average yards per target in four of his five seasons. His career 9.6 yards per target ranks ninth among 156 qualifying WRs.
• Samuel could also be helped this season by the 49ers throwing more.
  • Their 28.9 pass attempts per game last year were the fewest in the Shanahan era. San Francisco averaged 32.8 passes per game in Shanny’s first six seasons.
  • Last year’s passing volume was hurt in part by the 49ers playing with so many leads. While they ranked 30th in pass rate, they ranked 23rd in pass rate in neutral game situations and 17th in pass rate over expected. If the Niners aren’t quite as good this season, it should lead to more pass attempts.
  • The passing volume was also hurt by the 49ers ranking 27th with 60.2 offensive plays per game. That was the lowest mark in the Shanahan era, although it’s worth noting that San Francisco ranked 32nd in both offensive pace and situation-neutral pace last year. We’re projecting more plays this season, but not significantly more.
• Samuel is one of the biggest injury risks at WR.
  • He’s never played a full season, missing a total of 17 games across five years.
  • Our Injury Predictor gives him an 86.6% chance of injury and 3.4 projected games missed this season. Those are the third-highest and highest marks among WRs.