Pat Freiermuth - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Freiermuth should benefit from the departure of OC Matt Canada, whose scheme appeared unprepared for the NFL. OC Arthur Smith figures to keep the passing volume limited, though. QB Russell Wilson is better than Kenny Pickett but also won’t vault his pass-catchers’ upside. Ultimately, Freiermuth has a path to rank second on this team in targets and push for low-TE1 scoring. That makes him a solid pick in the top half of TE2 range. He falls short of being exciting, though.

What We Learned Last Year

• After catching 60+ balls in each of his first two seasons, Freiermuth should have been a breakout candidate in Year 3. Instead he endured his worst pro season to date.
• The TE posted a career low 15.9% targets per route, according to Pro Football Focus.
• His 1.12 yards per route also marked a career low. Freiermuth ranked 30th among 45 TEs who drew at least 30 targets in the regular season.
• His 68.7 PFF receiving grade rated better – tied for 18th – but also presented a career low.
• Freiermuth’s rate of inline pass snaps declined significantly – to 43.4% vs. 58.2% in 2022 and 60.9% his rookie year.
  • His 48.9% slot rate marked a steep increase from 36.4% in 2022 and 32.2% in 2021.
• His rate of catchable targets declined for the second straight year. That number has gone from 84.6% to 81.1% to 80%. Freiermuth ranked 87th among all TEs in that category last season.
• That came despite his aDOT shortening from 8.4 in 2022 to 7.0 last season.
• Former Steelers OC (fired in November) drew plenty of criticism for his offenses’ reluctance to use the middle of the field regularly in the passing game.
• Freiermuth lost five games to a hamstring injury. He previously hurt a hamstring in 2022 training camp, sitting out roughly 10 days of workouts.

What to Expect in 2024

• It’s tough to know exactly how new OC Arthur Smith will deploy Freiermuth. The coach’s most recent lead TE, Kyle Pitts, is more WR – and certainly a different player type than Freiermuth.
  • Pitts (19.9% across three seasons) and Jonnu Smith (30.5% last year) each spent much less time inline under Arthur Smith than Freiermuth has for any of his Steelers offenses.
  • Hayden Hurst played 43.1% inline for the 2021 Falcons, though.
  • Jonnu Smith saw inline rates of 52.6% and 671% in two seasons with Arthur Smith as his Tennessee OC.
  • Delanie Walker spent 32.3% inline for the 2019 Titans.
• Freiermuth sports traditional-TE size and less speed than Pitts, Smith, Walker, and maybe even Hurst (4.67 seconds, 74th-percentile).
• The presence of blocking TE Darnell Washington could continue to free Freiermuth up for more slot usage. But having him and Connor Heyward around might also lower Freiermuth’s ceiling for total playing time.
  • He played 63.3% of snaps over his 12 games last season, down from 67.8% in 2022.
  • Freiermuth ranked a solid 10th among all TEs in pass snaps in 2022, though.
• Pittsburgh traded away lead target Diontae Johnson this offseason. Replacements Roman Wilson (third-round rookie) and Van Jefferson (vet free agent) mean lesser competition for target share.
• OC Arthur Smith likely won’t help the overall target volume. His three Atlanta seasons found that team ranking 30th in neutral-situation pass rate. His two years in Tennessee found the Titans ranking 31st.