Kyren Williams - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Williams was a fantasy stud last year, getting workhorse usage and ranking second among RBs in fantasy points per game.

There are some concerns heading into 2024, namely the addition of Blake Corum and Williams’ durability.

But those are baked into his cost. Williams is going in the second half of Round 2, and sometimes slips into Round 3 of fantasy drafts.

He could lose some work to Corum and still pay off that price.

What We Learned Last Year

• Williams broke out in a big way in 2023, racking up 1,144 rushing yards, 206 receiving yards, and 15 total TDs.
• He did that in just 12 games, missing four in the middle of the season with an ankle injury and then sitting out a meaningless regular-season finale.
• Williams ranked second among RBs in PPR, half-PPR, and non-PPR points per game, behind only Christian McCaffrey.
• He finished as a top-12 PPR RB in nine of his 12 outings. That included six top-4 scoring weeks.
• Williams benefitted from awesome usage.
  • He played 82% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps in his 12 games.
  • He led the league with 19.0 carries per game.
  • He averaged 4.0 targets per game.
  • Williams ranked fourth in carries inside the 10-yard line and tied for eighth in carries inside the five.
  • He ranked second among RBs to only McCaffrey in expected PPR points per game.
• But Williams was also one of the most efficient runners in the league last year. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:
  • 5th in yards per carry
  • 8th in missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 7th in yards after contact per attempt
  • 10th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • 3rd in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
• On the other hand, he was one of the least effective pass-catchers. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, he ranked:
  • 41st in yards per target
  • 43rd in yards per route run
  • 43rd in PFF receiving grade
• Williams did rank a solid 22nd among those 43 RBs in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade and 18th in pass-blocking efficiency.

What to Expect in 2024

• Williams returns to the same offense led by HC Sean McVay and OC Mike LaFleur.
• McVay has produced a top-2 RB in PPR points per game in three of his seven seasons as Rams HC. He’s produced a top-21 RB in five of seven seasons.
• The 2023 Rams ranked:
  • 5th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade
  • 5th in adjusted line yards
  • 14th in ESPN’s run-block win rate
• The Rams signed G Jonah Jackson to a three-year, $51 million deal in free agency. He’s coming off a down season but was a strong run blocker for the Lions in 2021 and 2022.
• Williams faces new competition for snaps and touches after the Rams took RB Blake Corum with the 83rd overall pick of this spring’s draft.
  • Corum is coming off a big 2023 season: 1,245 rushing yards and 28 total TDs.
  • But he averaged a mediocre (for college) 4.8 yards per carry and ranked 152nd among 157 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating.
  • Corum was better in his 2022 breakout. He ran for 1,463 yards on 5.9 yards per carry and ranked 40th among 168 qualifiers in Elusive Rating.
  • The 5’8, 205-pounder earned a solid 8.29 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine.
• Rams GM Les Snead suggested shortly after the draft that the Corum selection was to help keep Williams fresh.
  • "It's a tough league; it's a 17-game season plus playoffs, might go to 18 games one day," Snead said. "So we always felt like we needed to have as many quality runners as possible so we don't just totally run down Kyren, and we have one or two, or even three guys that can contribute, keep everyone fresh, and let's go and try to impose our will."
• When asked about the Corum selection, McVay spent most of his response pumping up Williams.
  • “One of the things that jumped off is there’s a lot of traits that reminded me of Kyren Williams,” McVay said of Corum. “Obviously I love Kyren and he’s been so important, and just the human being, but then also when you just look at the way he works at it, the production and the things that he was able to bring to our offense last year, and even really some of the things that he worked through his rookie year. I think there’s a lot of similarities.”
• Williams is one of the biggest injury risks at RB.
  • On top of the ankle injury that cost him four games last year, he also hurt his hip in Week 4 and broke a bone in his hand in the Wild Card loss to the Lions.
  • Williams broke his foot in 2022 OTAs and then suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 1.
  • He missed OTAs this spring with what McVay called a "foot issue.”
  • Our Injury Predictor gives Williams an 88.7% chance of injury this season (fourth-highest among RBs) and 3.48 projected games missed (most among RBs).