Adam Thielen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Thielen had a career year last season, but that production decreased after HC Frank Reich was fired.

The production cliff is coming for Thielen, who is going into the season at 34 years old. With the Panthers’ additions to the WR room, Thielen is unlikely to see any consistent targets this season.

He is an end-of-the-roster flier who will need injuries to be relevant.

What We Learned Last Year

• Thielen posted a season-long stat line of 103 catches for 1,014 yards ad four TDs on 137 targets.
• His per-game averages were generally a massive upgrade over the average of the prior four years:
  • 8.06 targets (6.40)
  • 6.06 receptions (4.30)
  • 59.6 yards (50.33)
  • 0.24 TDs (0.66)
• HC Frank Reich was fired 11 games into the season. Thielen’s per-game production decreased after Reich left the team:
  • 6.17 targets
  • 4.33 receptions
  • 47.67 yards
  • 0 TDs
• He ranked as the WR18 in PPR fantasy points (229.0) and WR25 in points per game (13.5).
• He missed no games due to injury for the second consecutive season.
• He had three top-12 finishes. But he also had six WR37 or worse finishes.
• Thielen had the 15th-highest target share in the league (26.0%)
• Among 89 WRs with 45+ targets, Thielen ranked 33rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 48th in yards per route run (1.59.
• Among those same 89 WRs, he was 79th in average targeted air yards (7.6) but 32nd in percentage of team air yards (26.35%).

What to Expect in 2024

• Thielen will play under HC Dave Canales, who will be calling plays for the Panthers offense.
  • Canales was the OC for the Buccaneers last season.
  • Under Canales, the Buccaneers ranked 19th in the NFL with 568 passes.
• The Panthers are expected to take a step forward this year after only winning two games last season. They are fourth in the NFC South and 31st in the league with a 5.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Panthers have the worst odds in the NFL to win the Super Bowl at +25000 at most sportsbooks.
• Thielen enters his 10th season at 34 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Thielen’s career produces 70% of his peak value at age-34.
• He’ll face much tougher target competition this year after the Panthers added WRs Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette.