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Brian Thomas Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsBrian Thomas Jr.’s Basic Stats

Brian Thomas Jr.
ADP: N/A
Bye: 12
Experience: 0
Age: 22.1
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 209
40 Time: 4.33

Burst Score (Rank): 128.50 (83%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.44 (98%)

Brian Thomas Jr.'s Weekly Outlook

Week 14 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 62.1 0.36 8.8
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.4 63.1 0.4 8.6

Brian Thomas Jr.'s 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#22 Wide Receiver

209.3 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 71.2 1004.4 6.05 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsBrian Thomas Jr.'s Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

When Calvin Ridley was not re-signed, the Jaguars were pigeonholed into addressing WR in the draft. Thomas was the ideal scenario with his red-zone upside.

Thomas led the FBS in receiving TDs last year and is a 99th-percentile athlete with great size.

He’s unlikely to get a ton of targets as a rookie, though, so he’s unlikely to be an attractive weekly fantasy starter. He is ultimately more of a WR4 and might be overdrafted based on his draft capital and athletic profile.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Thomas was selected by the Jaguars with the 23rd overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
  • He played three years at LSU.
  • Thomas posted career-best numbers in 2023:
    • 86 targets
    • 68 catches
    • 1,177 receiving yards
    • 17 receiving TDs
  • Thomas’ breakout age at 20.9 is 38th percentile among drafted WRs.
  • He was near the top of the leaderboards in the SEC:
    • Fourth in yards per game (90.5)
    • Sixth in receptions per game (5.2)
    • Seventh in yards per catch (17.31)
    • First in receiving TDs
  • Thomas was named second-team All-SEC.
  • He measured in at 6 '3, 209 pounds at the NFL Combine and registered an outstanding 4.33 40-yard time. He earned a 9.84 Relative Athletic Score.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Thomas will enter his first season with the Jaguars under HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor.
  • Jacksonville lost WR Calvin Ridley in free agency but added free-agent Gabriel Davis. He, Thomas, and Christian Kirk will be the top three WRs. We’ll see who stays on the field in two-WR sets.
  • The Jaguars are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They sit 17th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +5000 on most sportsbooks, second-highest in the division.
  • Thomas enters his first season at 21 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Thomas’ profile will produce at 77-80% of his peak value at age-21.

Adjust Brian Thomas Jr.'s Projections

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Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC

11:32am EST 12/1/24

Trevor Lawrence Active

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is active for today’s game vs. the Texans. He’ll be playing through a significant AC joint injury to his left shoulder that might eventually require surgery. Lawrence would be a shaky start even in superflex leagues. But his return is good news for WR Brian Thomas Jr. and TE Evan Engram.

View all Trevor Lawrence Shark Bites »

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is expected to play vs. the Texans this weekend, HC Doug Pederson said Friday. Lawrence will be playing through a significant AC joint injury to his left shoulder that might eventually require surgery. It's his non-throwing shoulder, but there's still some risk that Lawrence takes a shot and is forced to exit. Against a Texans squad ranked fourth in pass defense DVOA, Lawrence would be a shaky Week 13 fantasy play. But his return is excellent news for WR Brian Thomas Jr. and TE Evan Engram.

View all Trevor Lawrence Shark Bites »

There's a "good possibility" that Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) starts against the Texans on Sunday if he avoids a setback over the next couple of days, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Lawrence took the "majority" of the first-team reps in Wednesday's practice, Rapoport adds. Lawrence is dealing with an AC joint injury in his left, non-throwing shoulder that might eventually require surgery. But he seems determined to play through it for the 2-9 Jaguars. Lawrence would not be a recommended fantasy play against Houston, but his return would be good news for WR Brian Thomas Jr. and TE Evan Engram.

View all Trevor Lawrence Shark Bites »

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) was limited in Wednesday's practice. HC Doud Pederson was non-committal on Lawrence's availability for this weekend's game vs. the Texans before practice. We'll continue to track his status over the next few days. Lawrence shouldn't be part of your Week 13 fantasy plans, but his return would be good news for WR Brian Thomas and TE Evan Engram.

View all Trevor Lawrence Shark Bites »

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) will practice on Monday, HC Doug Pederson said. The team will monitor Lawrence throughout the week before deciding whether he'll play against the Texans on Sunday. We're not sure why Lawrence would push through this injury for the 2-9 Jags, but his return would be good news for the offense. Jacksonville totaled 216 passing yards and 13 points over the last two games with QB Mac Jones.

View all Trevor Lawrence Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Brian Thomas Jr., WR JAC
Dynasty MVP 50.8
Position Rank #16 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
367
622
1,213
Dynasty Write-up
Playing alongside QB Jayden Daniels and WR Malik Nabers, Thomas enjoyed a third-year breakout. He led LSU in TD catches in 2023 (17) and nearly matched Nabers in yards per catch (17.3 to 17.6). Thomas is a long strider at 6’2, 209 pounds and tracks the ball like a veteran. He also brings desirable NFL athleticism (4.34 forty, 38.5-inch vertical). Jacksonville gives him a shot to eventually develop into the No. 1 target for Trevor Lawrence.
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