Trevor Lawrence - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Lawrence entered the league with sky-high expectations but has yet to reach them entering Year 4. He has been a solid fantasy QB but far from the generational talent he was touted to be.

The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley, but added Gabriel Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. to try and continue supporting Lawrence’s progress. This is a key year when the team will have to decide if they commit long term.

Ultimately, Lawrence is a high-end QB2 whose talent could push him into the QB1 range if the Jaguars offense clicks.

What We Learned Last Year

• Lawrence finished as the QB12 in total fantasy points and QB15 in points per game.
• His 3,736 passing yards ranked 13th among QBs. His 19 passing TDs ranked 17th.
• He missed one game (Week 17) with a sprained A/C joint.
• Lawrence had seven top-12 finishes. He had three QB25 or worse finishes.
• His per-game averages were in line with his career averages
  • 65.6% completion rate (63.8)
  • 251.0 yards (235.4)
  • 1.31 TDs (1.16)
  • 0.88 INTs (0.78)
  • 6.7 Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt (6.4)
• Among 45 QBs with 135+ dropbacks last year, Lawrence ranked:
  • 15th in Pro Football Focus passing grade (78.6)
  • Eighth in Big Time Throw percentage (5.8%)
  • 12th in Turnover Worthy Play percentage (3.8%)
  • 41st in Time to Throw (2.54 seconds)
  • 25th in Completion Percentage Above Expectation (-0.5%)
• Lawrence played behind an average O-line that ranked 21st in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.

What to Expect in 2024

• Lawrence enters his third season under HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor.
• The Jaguars invested in the offense around Lawrence by adding:
  • WR Gabriel Davis (FA)
  • WR Brian Thomas Jr. (First Round)
  • OT Javon Foster (Fourth Round)
• The Jaguars are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They sit 17th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +5000 on most sportsbooks, second-highest in the division.
• Lawrence enters his fourth season at 24 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average QB with Lawrence’s career and profile will produce at 92% of his peak value at age-24.
• Lawrence has yet to crack the top-10 QBs in fantasy points per game. His finishes:
  • 2021 - 32nd
  • 2022 - 11th
  • 2023 - 15th
• Lawrence should be in for better TD luck.
  • His 3.7% passing TD rate last year ranked 21st among 31 qualifiers.
  • His 3.3% TD rate over the last three seasons ranks 27th out of 30 qualifiers.