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Brian Thomas Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsBrian Thomas Jr.’s Basic Stats

Brian Thomas Jr.
ADP: N/A
Bye: 12
Experience: 0
Age: 22.1
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 209
40 Time: 4.33

Burst Score (Rank): 128.50 (83%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.44 (98%)

Brian Thomas Jr.'s Weekly Outlook

Week 12 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.6 66.2 0.4 9

Brian Thomas Jr.'s 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#19 Wide Receiver

213 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 72.3 1024.8 6.23 1 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsBrian Thomas Jr.'s Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

When Calvin Ridley was not re-signed, the Jaguars were pigeonholed into addressing WR in the draft. Thomas was the ideal scenario with his red-zone upside.

Thomas led the FBS in receiving TDs last year and is a 99th-percentile athlete with great size.

He’s unlikely to get a ton of targets as a rookie, though, so he’s unlikely to be an attractive weekly fantasy starter. He is ultimately more of a WR4 and might be overdrafted based on his draft capital and athletic profile.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Thomas was selected by the Jaguars with the 23rd overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
  • He played three years at LSU.
  • Thomas posted career-best numbers in 2023:
    • 86 targets
    • 68 catches
    • 1,177 receiving yards
    • 17 receiving TDs
  • Thomas’ breakout age at 20.9 is 38th percentile among drafted WRs.
  • He was near the top of the leaderboards in the SEC:
    • Fourth in yards per game (90.5)
    • Sixth in receptions per game (5.2)
    • Seventh in yards per catch (17.31)
    • First in receiving TDs
  • Thomas was named second-team All-SEC.
  • He measured in at 6 '3, 209 pounds at the NFL Combine and registered an outstanding 4.33 40-yard time. He earned a 9.84 Relative Athletic Score.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Thomas will enter his first season with the Jaguars under HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor.
  • Jacksonville lost WR Calvin Ridley in free agency but added free-agent Gabriel Davis. He, Thomas, and Christian Kirk will be the top three WRs. We’ll see who stays on the field in two-WR sets.
  • The Jaguars are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They sit 17th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +5000 on most sportsbooks, second-highest in the division.
  • Thomas enters his first season at 21 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Thomas’ profile will produce at 77-80% of his peak value at age-21.

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Gabriel Davis, WR JAC

12:10pm EST 11/18/24

Gabriel Davis Has Torn Meniscus

Jaguars WR Gabriel Davis is believed to have suffered a torn meniscus in Sunday's loss to the Lions, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Davis is expected to undergo surgery, at which point doctors will determine whether the meniscus needs to be trimmed or fully repaired. The former would sideline Davis for multiple weeks; the latter would end his season. Either way, Davis is safe to drop from all redraft rosters. His absence certainly won't hurt WR Brian Thomas or TE Evan Engram's target potential the rest of the way. None of the other Jacksonville pass catchers are worth messing with in fantasy lineups.

Update: HC Doug Pederson confirmed Monday afternoon that Davis will miss the rest of the season. He should have plenty of time to prepare for the start of 2025.

View all Gabriel Davis Shark Bites »

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) won't play vs. the Lions this weekend, HC Doug Pederson said Wednesday. Jacksonville gets a Week 12 bye, so perhaps we see Lawrence again in Week 13. But he's reportedly considering season-ending surgery on his injured left shoulder. Lawrence has no reason to rush back to the soon-to-be 2-9 Jags. QB Mac Jones gets another start on Sunday after an ugly Week 10: 111 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs. That came against a tough Vikings defense, but this weekend's matchup against the Lions isn't much easier. Jones isn't a recommended play in any format and makes Jacksonville's skill-position players tough to trust.

View all Trevor Lawrence Shark Bites »

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas (chest) is active for today’s game vs. the Vikings. He caught just two balls for 22 yards playing through this injury last week, but he registered a 91% snap rate. QB Mac Jones is a bigger concern for Thomas' Week 10 fantasy outlook than the chest injury.

View all Brian Thomas Jr. Shark Bites »

Jaguars WRs Brian Thomas (chest) and Gabe Davis (shoulder) are expected to play vs. the Vikings today, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Thomas played through his injury last week and never seemed to be in danger of missing this one. Davis sat out last week and would be a shaky fantasy play today, especially with QB Mac Jones at the controls. Davis' return should push WR Parker Washington back into the slot, giving him a favorable matchup against CB Byron Murphy.

View all Brian Thomas Jr. Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Brian Thomas Jr., WR JAC
Dynasty MVP 51.3
Position Rank #16 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
367
622
1,213
Dynasty Write-up
Playing alongside QB Jayden Daniels and WR Malik Nabers, Thomas enjoyed a third-year breakout. He led LSU in TD catches in 2023 (17) and nearly matched Nabers in yards per catch (17.3 to 17.6). Thomas is a long strider at 6’2, 209 pounds and tracks the ball like a veteran. He also brings desirable NFL athleticism (4.34 forty, 38.5-inch vertical). Jacksonville gives him a shot to eventually develop into the No. 1 target for Trevor Lawrence.
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