Jake Ferguson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Ferguson turned a newfound opportunity into a legit 2023 breakout. He finished 10th in TE PPR points per game.

Dallas passed on making a noticeable upgrade to the passing corps. So Ferguson – only 25 – will have a shot to sustain last year’s production.

Treat the third-year pro as a mid-range TE1.

What We Learned Last Year

• The Cowboys used a 2023 Round 2 pick on Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker, but he missed most of the offseason with a foot injury (plantar fasciitis).
• Ferguson stepped up to enjoy a breakout season.
  • Across 17 games, he became one of only seven TEs to hit 100 targets.
  • As a result, he posted nine top-12 fantasy finishes, including five inside the top-6.
  • Ferguson ranked second on the Cowboys in targets, catches, and receiving yards. His 5 TDs ranked third.
• A pass-oriented offense helped Ferguson produce.
  • Dak Prescott ranked third in passing yards and fourth in attempts.
  • The Cowboys finished fourth in pass rate over expected.
• Among 27 TEs with 50+ targets, Ferguson ranked tied for ninth in yards per catch, ninth in catch rate, fourth in yards after catch per reception, and eighth in PFF receiving grade.
• Ferguson saw a 22.1% red zone target share -- good for fourth highest among TEs.

What to Expect in 2024

• Entering year three, Ferguson projects comfortably in Dallas’ lead TE role.
  • Luke Schoonmaker returns, but he’s now way behind in his development.
  • Following the lost rookie year, he underwent shoulder surgery early this year. A hamstring strain surfaced in the spring.
• Dallas returns target leader CeeDee Lamb and veteran Brandin Cooks.
• Dallas passed on adding an impact WR. That likely means the team wants to keep Ferguson’s role steady.
• The same coaching staff returns, led by HC Mike McCarthy and OC Brian Schottenheimer.
• Dak Prescott returns, but dynasty owners should note that he’s currently slated for free agency in 2025.