Jahmyr Gibbs - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Gibbs started slowly as a rookie, lost two games to injury, and split backfield work with a RB who beat him in carries. And he still ranked eighth among all RBs in PPR points per game. The only problem is that the whole market’s optimistic. That has Gibbs going fourth at the position pretty consistently, and around the 1-2 turn in 1-QB formats. He becomes a better play the further he gets into Round 2.

What We Learned Last Year

• Gibbs’ rookie year got off to a worrisome start. He played just 19 snaps in the Week 1 win at Kansas City (compared with 55 for David Montgomery) and logged eight carries or fewer in three of his first four games.
• Gibbs and Montgomery each dealt with early-season injuries. Over their first seven healthy games together, Montgomery doubled Gibbs’ carry share: 57.8% to 28.9%.
• Things evened out over the season’s second half, though. From Week 10 through the playoffs, Gibbs drew 40.2% carry share to Montgomery’s 48.8%. The rookie also more than doubled his backfield mate in target share: 12.3% to 4.95%.
• Despite being the smaller half of the backfield combo, Gibbs also got work near the goal line. He trailed Montgomery in that department but ranked 14th among all RBs in carries inside the 10-yard line. Five of Gibbs’ 10 rushing scores came from inside the 5.
• Both RBs benefited from one of the league’s best O-lines. Detroit tied San Francisco for first in adjusted line yards last season, according to FTN. That measures how much yardage per carry is attributable to the blocking.
• The overall strength of the offense helps as well.
  • Detroit climbed from seventh in offensive DVOA in 2022 to fifth last year.
  • The Lions have also ranked 12th and second in total plays under OC Ben Johnson the past two years.
  • And they climbed from 25th in points and 22nd in total yards in 2021 to fifth in scoring each of the past two years; fourth and third in yards.
• The Lions also lean run-friendly with their play calling. They ranked 25th in situation-neutral pass rate last year, according to RBSDM.com, and rank 25th over Johnson’s two seasons.

What to Expect in 2024

• We see no reason to expect significant changes to one of last year’s best offenses.
• From Week 10 through the end of the regular season, Gibbs tallied the seventh-most non-PPR points among RBs; fifth-most PPR points.
  • That was with Montgomery ranking ninth and 13th, respectively, over the same span.
• Actually, the Lions hope to get even more from Gibbs in Year 2, especially as a receiver.
  • Scottie Montgomery, assistant HC and RBs coach, said in June: "What we need him to do from a passing game standpoint is go to that next level. I do think there's a certain difference between route running from the backfield and being a really, really sufficient, and efficient check-down runner vs. what it is to be a great route runner, a guy that can run all types of choice (routes). We know we've seen him do those things, but now can you go into the slot and do a little bit more down the field? Some intermediate stuff, can we continue to grow him there? And that's what we're trying to do."
• Gibbs tied for just 25th in average depth of target last year among 61 RBs who drew at least 20 targets.
  • Only nine RBs sported an aDOT of 1.0 or deeper.
  • Just three cracked 2.0 yards:
    • Kyle Juszczyk 5.5
    • Ameer Abdullah 3.0
    • Saquon Barkley 2.3
• Any depth that Gibbs adds to his receiving profile has the potential to significantly boost his production vs. the rest of the position.