The biggest question facing Saints RB Alvin Kamara for 2023 is the risk of suspension stemming from his still-lingering assault case. We'll almost certainly be waiting until at least August for any news on that front. But what can we expect whenever he is on the field? The veteran showed declines in both rushing and receiving efficiency over the past two years. Kamara rebounded some from a career-low 3.7 yards per carry in 2021 to 4.0 last year. Though his 14.9 carries per game (down from 18.5 in 2021) might still be more than ideal. Kamara finished each of the past two years 40th or worse in Football Outsiders' rushing DVOA and DYAR. His yards after contact per attempt matched the lowest rate of his career and ranked 46th among 61 RBs with 70+ carries, according to Pro Football Focus. Kamara also set career lows in PFF receiving grade each of the past two years, though even last season found him a decent 23rd among 61 RBs with 20+ targets. Volume has kept Kamara productive. He finished each of the past five years among the top 11 RBs in opportunity share (carries plus targets). The Saints signed RB Jamaal Williams and then drafted RB Kendre Miller in Round 3, so we should expect some dip in Kamara's touch volume. They also spent big, though, on QB Derek Carr. So Kamara could make up for any loss in touches if his efficiency rebounds, in an offense with room to rebound. An RB3-level ADP makes Kamara an intriguing bet for best ball drafts -- and a potential steal if he avoids suspension. Read more about him and the other Saints RBs in our 2023 RB rankings.
Saints rookie RB Kendre Miller caught only 29 passes in 33 college games. Yet he believes he can step into a sizable receiving role in New Orleans. "It was something I never got to show [at TCU],” Miller said. "The coaches here, they've got me on the Jugs and the tennis ball machines. They were like, we knew it was in you, that's why we drafted you, we know you can catch. Just showing everybody else in the world my ability will be a big thing for me, and I'm ready to get out there and compete.” Miller name-dropped Alvin Kamara, who remains a suspension candidate after getting indicted in February. “How they use [Kamara] is kind of unique, and watching film every day, we watch a bunch of clips of him,” the rookie said. “How they use him in the pass game, that's pretty cool. I feel like I can step in and pretty much do the same thing.” If Kamara’s suspended, Miller’s ability in pass protection will be key in getting him on the field for passing downs. Jamaal Williams, of course, arrived on a 3-year deal in March. See our updated RB projections for more on all 32 backfields.
The Saints selected TCU RB Kendre Miller in Round 3 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Miller is a tough evaluation. Over his last two seasons at TCU, he checked many of the statistical boxes fantasy managers like to see. Miller ranked first in yards per attempt (7.5), yards after contact (5.06), and PFF elusive rating (181.1) as a sophomore in 2021. Last year, Miller exploded with 1,515 scrimmage yards. Unfortunately, a right MCL sprain prevented Miller from participating in any pre-draft testing. Miller will be buried for 2023 on the Saints' depth chart if RB Alvin Kamara avoids suspension. Could New Orleans selecting Miller in Round 3 mean they expect a suspension? Perhaps. Keep Miller in mind as an end-of-draft option. And going fourth in the draft among RBs certainly helps his dynasty outlook. Check out Miller's initial spot in our 2023 fantasy football RB rankings.
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