Kendre Miller - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Miller battled injuries as a rookie and did not have much fantasy impact. But his success in Week 17 with Alvin Kamara on the bench showed the coaching staff his potential.

He comes into the season as the likely No. 2 RB on the team, and if Kamara gets hurt again, Miller holds high-end RB2 upside each week. Even with Kamara continuing to be the pass-catching back, Miller’s efficiency on the ground could lead to weekly production.

Miller’s low-end RB4 ADP is a cheap price for his potential. We are much higher in our 2024 RB rankings than consensus.

What We Learned Last Year

• Miller missed nine games due to injury.
  • A hamstring injury cost him the first two games of the season.
  • In Week 9, Miller sprained his ankle and missed the next seven games.
• Miller ranked as the PPR RB69; RB81 in points per game.
  • He recorded one game between RB13 and RB24, with RB21 being his highest finish.
• He ranked 48th among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 39%
• He found success rushing to the right, averaging 4.62 yards per carry vs. 2.95 yards per carry to the left.
• Miller had a breakout game in Week 18 against the Falcons when Alvin Kamara was out with injury.
  • He split carries with Jamaal Williams (13 for Miller vs. 14 for Williams).
  • Miller was effective with 79 total yards and a TD. Williams only had 29 total yards.
  • Despite being out-snapped 49% to 36%, Miller showed he is the superior back when Kamara is on the shelf.

What to Expect in 2024

• Miller enters his second season with the Saints under HC Dennis Allen.
• New OC Klint Kubiak spent last year as the 49ers' passing game coordinator.
  • In Kubiak’s last offensive coordinator stint for the Vikings in 2021, the team was 16th in the league in rush attempts (449).
• The Saints are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Saints have the 25th-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +8000 on most sportsbooks, third-highest in the division.
• Miller enters his second season at 22 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average RB with Miller’s draft capital and profile produces at 93-98% of his peak value at age-22.
• Williams was one of the least effective runners in the league last year. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:
  • 48th in yards per carry
  • 49th in rush yards over expected per attempt
  • 48th in yards after contact per attempt
  • 48th in PFF elusive rating
  • 49th in PFF rushing grade
• Kamara wasn’t much better. He ranked 46th in rush yards over expected per attempt and finished with career lows in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt.