Bills TE Dalton Kincaid ran a route on 13 of QB Josh Allen's 19 dropbacks over the last two preseason games. That 68% route rate is a bit lower than we see from most fantasy TE1s. But it's a good starting point for a rookie. Kincaid's playing time is likely to grow over the course of the season. See exactly where he sits in our TE rankings.
Bills TE Dalton Kincaid has drawn significant intrigue as a fantasy sleeper darling this offseason. The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia fueled the hype on Monday with a glowing report from camp. Buscaglia wrote that, "Almost every day, Kincaid is making himself available through excellent route running and movement skills for his size," adding that QB Josh Allen "has shown complete trust in Kincaid when on the field together." Rookie TEs immediately walking into high-end fantasy relevance is uncommon. However, the Bills' need for a reliable secondary option to WR Stefon Diggs in the passing game was made evident last season, and GM Brandon Beane said following the NFL Draft that they view the 25th overall pick as more of a WR than a TE. We'll see if this drumbeat stays steady for Kincaid, but it's tough to extract much value at a TE13 price tag in current ADP. He's not that far behind that position in our current TE rankings.
The theme of the Bills' first week of training camp has been TE Dalton Kincaid "being fast-tracked into what indisputably feels like a prominent, instant-impact role for a rookie within Buffalo's dynamic offense," CBS Sports' Chris Trapasso writes. Kincaid has reportedly been a fixture with QB Josh Allen and the first-team offense. It's not a big surprise considering Buffalo spent the 25th overall pick of this spring's draft on Kincaid, a 23-year-old who should be more NFL-ready than most rookies. Kincaid undoubtedly landed in an exciting spot with this Bills offense and has TE1 upside this season. The issue is that his ADP is sitting between TE12 and TE14, depending on the source. It'll be tough to squeeze much value out of Kincaid at that price.
Bills reporter Mark Gaughan writes that the team “clearly believes” TE Dalton Kincaid “has the ability to pick up schemes quickly.” Gaughan believes the Bills will “force-feed him work this summer.” Kincaid started camp hot with a pair of TDs from Josh Allen in team drills. The rookie is currently coming off the board at TE13 on Underdog Fantasy.
The Bills utilized 2-TE sets on only 38 snaps (3.7%) last season, per TruMedia. That number will rise following the addition of Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid. As The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia writes, “[the Bills] made Kincaid a key to opening things up and being more unpredictable on offense.” Buscaglia also notes that Buffalo leaned into 2-TE sets a bit more down the stretch last season. Dawson Knox counts ~$6.5 million against Buffalo’s cap, so he’ll retain a role. We’ll watch for training camp clues on how frequently OC Ken Dorsey plans to utilize 12 personnel. (The Bills practice just down the road from Draft Sharks headquarters.) Kincaid’s ADP is currently TE13, with Knox at TE20. Check the TE rankings to see where both guys land.
Bills GM Brandon Beane confirmed that the team views rookie Dalton Kincaid as a WR as much as a TE. "He is a tight end, but he is a receiving tight end," Beane said. "We think he'll pair well with Dawson [Knox] and give us another target in the middle of the field. So, yeah, when him and Dawson are in the game, you're in '12' [personnel], but it's quasi like '11' anyway. He's not your standard 'Y' tight end. He's going to be flexed out a lot more than necessarily you would do with Dawson.” Kincaid is no stranger to detaching from the line of scrimmage. He lined up out wide or in the slot on 44.8% of his snaps at Utah last year. That, of course, is exactly the type of usage we're looking for from our fantasy TEs. Kincaid has a chance to be a rare rookie TE to make a redraft impact. See exactly where Kincaid sits in the 2023 TE Rankings.
The Bills selected Utah TE Dalton Kincaid with the 25th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Kincaid is an older prospect at 23 but broke out early at San Diego. Across his first two seasons, he recorded 68 catches, 1,209 yards, and 19 TDs. He transferred to Utah ahead of year three and saved his best work for last fall (70-890-8). Most impressively, he caught all 16 of his targets for 234 yards and one score in a mid-season win over USC. There’s no real flaw in his on-field game. Kincaid wins with advanced route running, reliable hands, and strong YAC ability. He didn’t test in the pre-draft process due to a “tiny” back fracture, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. But he was given a clean bill of health by Dr. Robert Watkins earlier in April. You have to love the fit with Josh Allen, and it’s easy to see Kincaid overtaking Dawson Knox as soon as this season. Just note: Knox’s contract makes it hard for the Bills to move on from him until 2025. The rookie projects as a top-20 fantasy TE.
Per NFL insider Ian Rapoport, TE Dalton Kincaid didn’t participate in combine drills due to a “tiny” back fracture. The Utah product measured in at 6’4, 246 pounds — 6 pounds more than his college listing. A potential Round 1 pick, Kincaid said he hopes to participate in Utah’s March 23 Pro Day.
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