Dawson Knox - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Knox’s career TD rate of 12.8% is excellent.

There’s a chance he pops as a TD scorer in 2024 – just as he did in in 2022 or 2021.

But there’s no predictable volume to chase here, especially with Dalton Kincaid’s arrow pointing straight up. Only consider Knox late in FFPC (TE premium) drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• The Bills added TE Dalton Kincaid in Round 1 of the 2023 draft.
• Knox fractured his wrist in Week 5.
  • He eventually underwent surgery, forcing five missed games.
• Prior to the injury, Knox totaled only 8 catches for 58 yards and 1 score.
  • Upon returning, he scored twice in a five-game sample, with one surfacing in the postseason.
  • He never topped 3 targets over that stretch.
• The Bills switched OC’s mid-year in 2023.
  • OC Joe Brady, who returns for 2024, leaned more on the run than former playcaller Ken Dorsey.

What to Expect in 2024

• Knox took a pay cut in March.
• The Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis over the offseason.
  • They remove 241 targets from the 2023 offense.
  • Buffalo showed no indication of running out more 2-TE sets, adding Curtis Samuel and spending an early Round 2 pick on Keon Coleman.
  • Note: Buffalo ranked mid-pack in 12 personnel (2-TE) usage in 2023.
• Khalil Shair returns for year three with clear potential for a larger role.