George Pickens - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Pickens probably won’t be in a great spot for passing volume or high-level yardage and scoring efficiency. But he’s well set up to continue improving his own efficiency. Diontae Johnson’s departure should mean more target share. The new OC and QB should improve his routes and the number of catchable targets. Overall, Pickens looks like a fantasy WR3 with upside into WR2 range.

What We Learned Last Year

• Pickens showed improvement in his second season, even while dealing with poor QB play and a lackluster offensive scheme.
• His 1.38 yards per route in 2022 tied for just 57th among 97 WRs who drew at least 40 targets, according to Pro Football Focus. That rate jumped to 2.05 last season, tied for 21st among 96 WRs with 40+ targets.
• Pickens saw his average target depth shorten while growing his yards after catch even more. His 6.1 YAC per reception tied for eighth among those 96 WRs. And that came with Pickens still ranking among the top 25% in aDOT (T-24th).
• Pickens’ target share improved significantly. He went from just 14.7% as a rookie (64th among WRs) to 21.5% in 2023, including the playoffs. He climbed to 30th among WRs in target share for the regular season.
  • Pickens got 28% of targets in the four games Diontae Johnson missed. That dipped to 19.7% in 13 games with Johnson.
  • Even that number climbed late in the year, though. Pickens garnered 24.3% target share over the final five games, including the playoff loss. He topped 26% in three of those contests but also mixed in a weird 0-target Week 18 (despite normal playing time).
  • Johnson still led the team in target share (adjusted for games missed). But his 23.5% marked a second straight dip – from 25.7% in 2022 and 27.9% in 2021.
• Pickens beat Johnson in yards per target (10.8 to 8.2) and yards per route (2.05 to 1.90). He beat Johnson YPT the previous year as well but trailed him in YPRR

What to Expect in 2024

• Pittsburgh’s offensive changes for this season stop short of being exciting. But they could all help Pickens’ 2024 outlook.
• Hiring OC Arthur Smith brings another run-leaning play caller. His Atlanta offenses ranked 30th in the league in neutral-situation pass rate over the past three years. His 2019-20 Titans ranked 31st.
• Smith, however, will likely help Pickens’ routes. According to Reception Perception, 2022 (the last full season of OC Matt Canada) found Pickens running dig routes just 7.7% of the time and Johnson doing so on 9.4% of his routes. Falcons WR Drake London, meanwhile, did so on 16.6% of his routes that year.
  • A “dig” is a shorter, inbreaking route that has the WR working the middle of the field and getting set up to gain yards after the catch.
  • Canada drew criticism for failing to work the middle of the field in the passing game. That area typically increases per-play efficiency vs. outside, deeper routes.
• Diontae Johnson, of course, has now moved on to Carolina. Third-round rookie Roman Wilson looks like the best bet for the No. 2 WR role. That combo should boost the target-share ceiling for Pickens.
• QB Russell Wilson remains not nearly as good as the early-career Seattle version. But he’s almost certainly an upgrade over Kenny Pickett.
  • According to Pro Football Reference, Wilson ranked ninth in the league in on-target rate (77.9%) last year. Pickett finished 30th (71.6%) among 32 qualifiers).
• Expect Pickens to:
  • Set a new high in target share
  • Likely see shorter targets on average, and
  • Find a higher percentage of those targets “catchable.”