Roman Wilson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Wilson looks intriguing for the long term. Just don’t let a buzzy pre-draft season and/or available opportunity let you overrate him. There’s limited upside to his situation, and the player is no sure thing.

What We Learned Last Year

• Wilson played a central but not dominant role in a limited Michigan passing offense. He racked up 50% of the team’s TD receptions but added more modest shares in:
  • Receptions – 19%
  • Receiving yards – 25.1%
• The Wolverines limited the production potential throughout his three starting seasons by ranking 98th or lower in pass attempts each year. That included last year’s low of 120th.
• Wilson totaled 98 receptions over those three seasons, topping out at 48 in 2023.
• He averaged a strong 16.0 yards per catch for his college career, though, helped by a 14.1-yard career aDOT.
• Wilson ran 60% of his career routes from the slot, according to Pro Football Focus, ramping up his usage from that area over his final two seasons: 90.1% and 68.7%.
• Wilson stood out at the Senior Bowl – by consensus reaction – and then ran a 4.39-second 40 time at the Scouting Combine. That was good enough for a 62nd-percentile speed score despite his below-average size (17th-percentile height; 15th-percentile weight) for the position.

What to Expect in 2024

• Wilson doesn’t bring a strong enough college profile to make big, immediate production seem likely. His Round 3 draft capital agrees.
• He lands in a good spot for immediate opportunity, though. Pittsburgh traded away its target-share leader of the past five years (Diontae Johnson). Last year’s No. 3 wideout in targets (Allen Robinson) is also gone.
• That leaves George Pickens as the likely new lead target, with RB Jaylen Warren and TE Pat Freiermuth looking like Wilson’s biggest challengers for work.
• New OC Arthur Smith plus new QB Russell Wilson figure to shorten the average target depth vs. the past couple of years.
• Wilson’s inside-outside versatility and above-average speed should help him stay involved across formations and draw targets.
• Expect limited passing volume from these Steelers. Smith’s three years in Atlanta found his offense ranking 30th in the league in neutral-situation pass rate. His two years in Tennessee found that offense ranking 31st.