Puka Nacua - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Nacus is coming off one of the best debuts of all time, scoring the third most PPR points by a rookie WR in NFL history.

He was a bit less productive alongside a healthy Cooper Kupp. But that’s only a slight concern heading into 2024, especially since Kupp is 31 with a lengthy injury history.

Returning to the same offense with the same QB as an ascending 23-year-old, Nacua is a safe bet for WR1 production with upside into the top-5. He’s worth a pick anywhere in the back half of Round 1.

What We Learned Last Year

• Nacua tallied 105 catches, 1,486 yards, and six TDs in a 17-game rookie season.
• The catches and yardage were both NFL rookie records.
• Nacua scored the third most PPR points by a rookie WR in NFL history, behind only Randy Moss and Ja’Marr Chase and right ahead of Odell Beckham.
• He ranked fourth among WRs in total PPR points last year and sixth in PPR points per game.
• Nacua finished as a top-12 PPR WR in nine of 17 games. Only CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill had more top-12 finishes (10 apiece).
• Nacua’s 160 targets tied for sixth most among WRs.
• His 27.2% target share ranked 12th at the position.
• Nacua underachieved in the TD department.
  • He scored on just 5.7% of his receptions – well below the league-wide average WR TD rate of around 7.3%.
  • Nacua ranked 11th among WRs with 7.7 expected receiving TDs.
  • He tied for 15th among WRs in red-zone targets and tied for 18th in end-zone targets.
• Nacua’s 2.59 yards per route run ranked eighth among 80 qualifying WRs and led all 14 qualifying rookie WRs.
  • It was the fourth-best mark among 96 rookie WRs with 50+ targets over the past 10 seasons, behind only Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Brown, and Justin Jefferson.
• Nacua was busier and more productive in the five games WR Cooper Kupp missed all or most of vs. 12 games with a healthy Kupp (omitting Week 17 when Nacua left early and including the playoffs).
  • Per-game averages without Kupp:
    • 11.8 targets (29.9% share)
    • 8.8 catches
    • 114.2 yards
    • 0.4 TDs
    • 22.8 PPR points
  • Per-game averages with Kupp:
    • 8.8 targets (26.4% share)
    • 5.5 catches
    • 87.9 yards
    • 0.3 TDs
    • 16.9 PPR points
• Nacua’s scoring average without Kupp would have ranked third among WRs for the season. His scoring average with Kupp: 10th.

What to Expect in 2024

• Nacua returns to almost an identical situation this season.
  • HC Sean McVay and OC Mike LaFleur are back.
  • QB Matt Stafford is back.
  • The Rams return their top four WRs in Nacua, Kupp, Demarcus Robinson, and Tutu Atwell.
  • TE Tyler Higbee figures to miss the start of the season after tearing his right ACL and MCL in the Wild Card loss to the Lions. The Rams added TE Colby Parkinson on a three-year, $22.5 million free-agent deal.
• The Rams have consistently ranked near the top of the league in total WR PPR points under McVay.
  • 2017 - 4th
  • 2018 - 4th
  • 2019 - 4th
  • 2020 - 12th
  • 2021 - 1st
  • 2022 - 16th
  • 2023 - 3rd
• Nacua is a good bet for positive TD regression after that well-below-average TD rate last year.
• Kupp is the biggest threat to Nacua’s volume and fantasy production.
  • But Kupp turned 31 in June and posted career lows in yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year.
  • He has also missed 23 games over his seven NFL seasons, including 13 over the last two.
  • Our Injury Predictor projects him for 1.4 missed games this year.
• Stafford is one of the biggest injury risks at his position. Our Injury Predictor gives him the second-highest chance of injury at QB (80.3%) and the third-most projected games missed (2.7).
• The Rams at least added solid insurance this offseason in QB Jimmy Garoppolo.